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Sonic R. System

  • #39,321
  • Edited 5:23am Sep 21, 2012 5:02am | Edited 5:23am
Quoting foxybunny
Hmmm....

E/U price way above the dragon for a Short.
And where is the wave for this trade ??

You did have a good week this week with many wins, and nice trades that did follow SonicR ... except this E/U Short.

E/U sudden plunge before the GBP Red news Public Sector Net Borrowing, then straight after the news, it just went straight up.
Perhaps more up leg to go.

Like you said, this E/U Short could be your best or worse trade for this week.
Don't let this be your worse trade.
To answer your question, there is no wave for this trade. As Sonic says, it is a "curious" short trade. That means, we have no friggin' idea why the price got spiked! We are curious, and wonder if price might just pull way back again!

Actually, in about three hours there is a medium impact EUR release. Maybe the "market" anticipates more bad news and decided to quickly move the price up and use the remaining time to build a short position. Who knows? Regardless the reason, that was a healthy 50% retrace of the move down from the top price made a few days ago; a nice pullback in what might be a new down trend.

BTW, if you check your volumes and compare to similar volumes from yesterday, you will discover the market just moved the price a hell of a long ways on that volume! So, it is not like they were heavy on buying. More like it was heavy on "git the damn price up there, fast!"

Also, look at UChf and see the same deal, opposite direction of course. What does EU and UChf have in common? USD! So, for the moment, things point squarely to "pro-USD sentiment" as the culprit here. In which case, the "market" is sandbagging (reversing the price to build a position) for another pro-USD move. Heck, we just have to wait and see. But, I'm curious.
  • #39,322
  • Sep 21, 2012 5:03am Sep 21, 2012 5:03am
I want this to happen before I commit to anything

Regards,

H.
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"The future is already written in the past"
  • #39,323
  • Sep 21, 2012 5:35am Sep 21, 2012 5:35am
Quoting traderathome
GU: Re-entered short.
GU: Also, SL hit on this on too, for 20 pips loss, EP1 to TP1.
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  • #39,324
  • Sep 21, 2012 5:57am Sep 21, 2012 5:57am
Quoting hansma
I want this to happen before I commit to anything

Regards,

H.
Gee, Hansma, on a larger scale the SR flip zone might be right where PA went to. Back testing.
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  • #39,325
  • Edited 6:39am Sep 21, 2012 6:24am | Edited 6:39am
EU Comment:

Told cha!

Seriously, the "market" seems to have gone and backtested a significant SR level (see previous post), a SL hunt and triggering wrong side (longs) pending orders into the market. All so the BBs could add shorts. And where is the price now? Right back where it started? Is "news" responsible for this? No! The greed of the big money players is what causes this. Nothing more. And no technical, or combination of techicals can "predict" such behaviour, or "map" it for you. This is the market, folks, where the only true fundamental is the greed of Big Money. Up and down, and for no reason other than that.

The move was timed to the GBP high impact release. But the move took place on a number of pairs, not just GU. So, it really had little or nothing to do with the content of the release. EU moved. UChf moved. On a GBP release? See what I'm saying? And look at the price now. Unless the "news" has been retracted, these moves on the various pairs were just a maneuver by the market wanting to "adjust" its positions for some other reason, and simply used the timing of the GBP release as the "excuse".

Now I am also curious as to what that "some other reason" might be.
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  • #39,326
  • Sep 21, 2012 7:24am Sep 21, 2012 7:24am
Quoting traderathome
EU Comment:

Told cha!

Seriously, the "market" seems to have gone and backtested a significant SR level (see previous post), a SL hunt and triggering wrong side (longs) pending orders into the market. All so the BBs could add shorts. And where is the price now? Right back where it started? Is "news" responsible for this? No! The greed of the big money players is what causes this. Nothing more. And no technical, or combination of techicals can "predict" such behaviour, or "map" it for you. This is the market, folks, where the...
Yes, well, big money does what it does and sometimes it looks crazy, other times it does not. I believe that today's price action was not crazy at all. We had a run down to a demand level but there was too much supply for price to move past it quickly. And so we went back to the demand level. News time is probably a good time to keep little guys out of the market or wipe them out if they don't know what they're doing.

I usually draw way more s/r levels than this but the key in this chart, in my opinion, is that this was the first time in a while that price successfully tested a demand level. So it went the path of least resistance back to supply. I'll be on the sidelines watching how this develops further but I suspect answers will be next week.
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  • #39,327
  • Sep 21, 2012 8:05am Sep 21, 2012 8:05am
Unpredictable indeed..

Sonic
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  • #39,328
  • Sep 21, 2012 11:19am Sep 21, 2012 11:19am
Hey Master TAH n Sonicers, nice weekend!
  • #39,329
  • Edited 12:19pm Sep 21, 2012 11:25am | Edited 12:19pm
AU: Entered short. TP choice is tentative at this time. Another FOMC statement coming in about 15 minutes.

Edit: FOMC over 30 minutes ago at this point, and not much market reaction.....yet. Still in trade, with SL still mental (expected volatility). Adjusted TPs; added middle one, which could turn out to be the best of the group for the remainder of the day, if price starts to go down (see 2nd pic.)
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  • #39,330
  • Sep 21, 2012 1:13pm Sep 21, 2012 1:13pm
AU Comment:

I entered late in day (previous post), after end of LS, due to what PA was doing, and what VSA was showing. The pic. below shows what might have been happening. And if so, there was the possibility of a move down, even late on a Friday. Anything can happen, even nothing. And if nothing happens, then when next week rolls around the picture could change. But the picture might not change, and this could all still take place. Certainly, this will not be born out until PA breaks below the H&S neckline, if and whenever that might happen.
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  • #39,331
  • Sep 21, 2012 1:49pm Sep 21, 2012 1:49pm
GU: Entered short. Might be we have some late market action going on today. Rare. If it happens, then it is just another clue that the market has shifted to being pro-USD. This trade is made on the possibility a late move will happen. TP is tentative, since any such late move is likely without high volume to sustain it. Note that the PA-VSA story is the same here as with AU.
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  • #39,332
  • Sep 21, 2012 1:54pm Sep 21, 2012 1:54pm
Quoting traderathome
GU: Entered short. Might be we have some late market action going on today. Rare. If it happens, then it is just another clue that the market has shifted to being pro-USD. This trade is made on the possibility a late move will happen. TP is tentative, since any such late move is likely without high volume to sustain it. Note that the VSA story is the same here as with AU.
TAH,

How do you switch the VSA candlesticks on/off. In some of screenshots I see normal PA candlestick colors whereas in the other ones I see VSA colors.

Thanks,
k
  • #39,333
  • Sep 21, 2012 2:00pm Sep 21, 2012 2:00pm
Quoting traderathome
GU: Entered short. Might be we have some late market action going on today. Rare. If it happens, then it is just another clue that the market has shifted to being pro-USD. This trade is made on the possibility a late move will happen. TP is tentative, since any such late move is likely without high volume to sustain it. Note that the PA-VSA story is the same here as with AU.

Master TAH, are you going to stay in the trades until Sunday? or you are going to close maybe later for some profits?
  • #39,334
  • Edited 2:21pm Sep 21, 2012 2:02pm | Edited 2:21pm
Quoting kashTrader
TAH,

How do you switch the VSA candlesticks on/off. In some of screenshots I see normal PA candlestick colors whereas in the other ones I see VSA colors.

Thanks,
k
Actually, two different templates were used; with and without VSA. I am working on two new indys: VSA Candles Suite and VSA Histogram Suite. These will enable user to easily flip between displaying VSA candles/histogram and standard candles/histogram (using SonicR Volume indy). However, as time goes on, I become less certain of the value of non-VSA displays compared to VSA displays.

All the pics. below are the same chart using these two new indicators, and just switching between VSA and STD display modes. The STD display mode will allow user to select from three different color sets for the standard candles (pics. 2, 3 & 4). And these color sets can be altered by the user.
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  • #39,335
  • Sep 21, 2012 2:04pm Sep 21, 2012 2:04pm
Quoting traderathome
Actually, two different templates were used; with and without VSA. I am working on two new indys: VSA Candles Suite and VSA Histogram Suite. These will enable user to easily flip between displaying VSA candles/histogram and standard candles/histogram (using SonicR Volume indy). However, as time goes on, I become less certain of the value of non-VSA displays compared to VSA displays.
Well surely the VSA is very useful and informative. But, the problem is that I have a hard time differentiating when candles have certain VSA colors which can either be a bull or a bear candle. Any thoughts on this....?
  • #39,336
  • Sep 21, 2012 2:13pm Sep 21, 2012 2:13pm
Quoting kashTrader
Well surely the VSA is very useful and informative. But, the problem is that I have a hard time differentiating when candles have certain VSA colors which can either be a bull or a bear candle. Any thoughts on this....?
Yes, the next release provides for the rising volume candles to be displayed with different colors for bull and bear. Currently, they are both colored blue. The next release allows that, as well as the option of displaying the bear candles purple (see pic.). Again, this pic. of of the same exact chart from the previous post. We are only changing display options provided in the new indicators.
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  • #39,337
  • Sep 21, 2012 2:34pm Sep 21, 2012 2:34pm
Quoting traderathome
Yes, the next release provides for the rising volume candles to be displayed with different colors for bull and bear. Currently, they are both colored blue. The next release allows that, as well as the option of displaying the bear candles purple (see pic.). Again, this pic. of of the same exact chart from the previous post. We are only changing display options provided in the new indicators.
Yey....... When is this expected to be released?
  • #39,338
  • Sep 21, 2012 2:56pm Sep 21, 2012 2:56pm
Quoting kashTrader
Yey....... When is this expected to be released?
Well, like I said. I'm not so sure of the value of a non-VSA display, hence I am not sure about releasing the set of "Suite" indicators. If that becomes the case, still all the other changes/improvements will be released in an update of the current VSA indys. Other changes and improvements are being made to the Control Panel, too. So, I have "field testing" to do on everything, and then decisions to make. I'm not really sure when the next release will be. I am usually working in the background on ideas to make our templates cleaner, more visual, hopefully more effective, and with indicators more easy to use. But I don't want to have releases too frequently. The last was just in May.
  • #39,339
  • Sep 21, 2012 3:03pm Sep 21, 2012 3:03pm
Quoting traderathome
EU: I was pondering if to post this "curious short". Why not. PA made it to FR 50% (see H1) where I kept trying to make entry. Dang broker kept feeding me back "Invalid Quote" nonsense, but finally took the short order (see M15). It actually worked out good for me. Price was climbing as I tried to get the order accepted, so it filled a few pips higher than I started at, two tenths of a pip off the top! Now, to see what happens. Could turn out to be the best or worst trade of the week for me.
EU: Manually closed for 60 pips EP1 to TP2.
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  • #39,340
  • Sep 21, 2012 3:13pm Sep 21, 2012 3:13pm
Quoting traderathome
AU: Entered short. TP choice is tentative at this time. Another FOMC statement coming in about 15 minutes.

Edit: FOMC over 30 minutes ago at this point, and not much market reaction.....yet. Still in trade, with SL still mental (expected volatility). Adjusted TPs; added middle one, which could turn out to be the best of the group for the remainder of the day, if price starts to go down (see 2nd pic.)
AU: Manually closed for 18 pips EP1 to revised TP3.
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