"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #55,741
- Sep 21, 2012 5:11am Sep 21, 2012 5:11am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
- #55,742
- Sep 21, 2012 5:11am Sep 21, 2012 5:11am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
yep - tussle on D1 as I see it - the bull run since late July vs. the longer term players
That's exactly what it's all about, and now the final decision will be made by reality.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #55,743
- Sep 21, 2012 5:17am Sep 21, 2012 5:17am
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 11,327 Posts
Good eye
That's exactly what it's all about, and now the final decision will be made by reality.
and the "R" word - always sounds a bit harsh
- #55,745
- Sep 21, 2012 5:30am Sep 21, 2012 5:30am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
Omg I was clicking too fast and opened more trades than I wanted. Somebody shoot me please, now if we drop I will get out on BE and not in profit.
Still better than my fail on FOMC last week, where I misclicked and bought 10 times more than I wanted. Unfortunately, I closed it very fast (or maybe luckily, coz if I left it opened, universe would split and we would tank for sure).
T
Still better than my fail on FOMC last week, where I misclicked and bought 10 times more than I wanted
. Unfortunately, I closed it very fast (or maybe luckily, coz if I left it opened, universe would split and we would tank for sure).T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #55,746
- Sep 21, 2012 5:35am Sep 21, 2012 5:35am
- Joined Jun 2012 | Status: ケンジ | 21,416 Posts
Omg I was clicking too fast and opened more trades than I wanted. Somebody shoot me please, now if we drop I will get out on BE and not in profit.
Still better than my fail on FOMC last week, where I misclicked and bought 10 times more than I wanted
T
- #55,747
- Sep 21, 2012 5:37am Sep 21, 2012 5:37am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
What is the target? Look at mine, a bit unrealistic? I can change it though.
. Primary target 1,31 (3098 on Oanda UK to be precise). I cover most there and let just a few orders run.T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #55,748
- Sep 21, 2012 5:38am Sep 21, 2012 5:38am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
What is the target? Look at mine, a bit unrealistic? I can change it though.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #55,749
- Sep 21, 2012 5:42am Sep 21, 2012 5:42am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #55,751
- Sep 21, 2012 5:53am Sep 21, 2012 5:53am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,522 Posts
As for QE-Infinity, yes there will be more money in circulation, but it does not have to debase the currency because it will be used to lend to Americans to re-finance their houses or to purchase/build new ones and not to invest in foreign sovereign debt instruments (certainly not EZ sovs anyway).
First off, as far as i know the money isn't going into circulation it'll be parked in banks and the effect on the rates are going to be minimal (as you've also indicated). That money will not be used to lend to americans simply because banks haven't engaged in the consumer lending activity. THAT confidence is not there, yet. Banks are not stupid, they will find better risk/reward activities to put that cash into. I'm sure that extra money finds its way to foreign markets and put on interest growth. Nothing to do with boosting middle class demand for products and services and improving general sentiment. Especially now, that fiscal cliff is on the horizon and the uncertainty that comes from that. As you said:
consumers will wait for corporates,
Corporates will wait for governments,
Governments will talk big and do nothing.
So that means that USDs will not be exchanged for Euros and Yen and Aussie dollars or emerging market currencies, but actually used in the US as USDs. Furthermore, when the construction industry starts showing some hope, capital from Europe and Asia will flood in to USD to invest in the only market that will be yielding a decent return with low relative risk.
I called Bernanke a friggin idiot and I cursed him up and down for launching QE-Infinity, but after thinking about it, I think he's made a smart move for the US.
I understand your theoretical logic but market logic is different. Money will not flood into USD because USD does not have any future prospects. Yields and risk/rewards are in other places just like they have been in the past. Dollar does't offer anything on the fundamental side. The only game for the USD is its safe heaven status where foreign investments are converted back into dollars in times of risk-off. The moment the world economy starts to gain momentum, USD's will be used as a nr 1 funding currency. However, we all know how easily that econ momentum can be achieved on the back of China, U.S. fiscal cliff and, yes, the eurozone.
I called Bernanke a friggin idiot and I cursed him up and down for launching QE-Infinity, but after thinking about it, I think he's made a smart move for the US.
"There are a number of different channels -- mortgage rates, I mentioned other interest rates, corporate bond rates, but also the prices of various assets, like, for example, the prices of homes. To the extent that home prices begin to rise, consumers will feel wealthier, they'll feel more -- more disposed to spend. If house prices are rising, people may be more willing to buy homes because they think that they'll, you know, make a better return on that purchase. So house prices is one vehicle."
"One of the main concerns that firms have is there's not enough demand. There are not enough people coming and demanding their products. And if people feel that their financial situation is better because their 401(k) looks better or for whatever reason -- their house is worth more -- they're more willing to go out and spend, and that's going to provide the demand that firms need in order to be willing to hire and to invest."
Long story short - Bernanke effectively told everyone that the only way he sees economic growth is through another housing bubble which will be the foundation for the mother of all pyramid schemes. In other words: Let's hope the QE3 inflates the housing market so that the average american would use his house as an ATM machine and start buying Iphone 5 for his cats and dogs. I wonder where i've seen that before ?
And that's a smart move ??
3 to 5 years from now, the EZ may once again become powerful in the global economy and the Euro may very well trade above $1.50 again, but not this or next year and that's for sure. In fact I fully expect 1.2041 to be tested again. Who knows? Perhaps even make a new low.
it's not about the EZ becoming powerful again but rather how does CB's and politicians manipulate the world economy to "grow". Any sign of sustained growth figures where momentum seem to be picking up (referring to consumer and business loan activities) the sigh of relief would, yes, take the pair up to 1.5's. As of today, i am assured that the FED will simply delay to the "very last minute" of its massive balance sheet contraction activities and that again will only mean lower dollar. The FED will have to be BEHIND the curve or it risks collapsing the stocks which would lead the whole game back to square 1 again.
Luckily for any eurodollar bear the growth in the EZ is very difficult to come on the back of all the austerity/uncertainty etc. And without growth, do whatever you will, the situation simply cannot get better. This the only game right now.
- #55,752
- Sep 21, 2012 6:01am Sep 21, 2012 6:01am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #55,753
- Sep 21, 2012 6:09am Sep 21, 2012 6:09am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
In other words: Let's hope the QE3 inflates the housing market so that the average american would use his house as an ATM machine and start buying Iphone 5 for his cats and dogs. I wonder where i've seen that before ?
.I like your analysis man, so please, receive my vouch.
Keep up the good work,
Tom
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #55,754
- Sep 21, 2012 6:18am Sep 21, 2012 6:18am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #55,755
- Sep 21, 2012 6:18am Sep 21, 2012 6:18am
- | Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,581 Posts
Omg I was clicking too fast and opened more trades than I wanted. Somebody shoot me please, now if we drop I will get out on BE and not in profit.
Still better than my fail on FOMC last week, where I misclicked and bought 10 times more than I wanted
T
Any prices quoted are futures
- #55,757
- Sep 21, 2012 6:20am Sep 21, 2012 6:20am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
I must say i am surprised of how you now see credibility in QE and thus in the FED. I understand that you are THE ultimate euro bear but you've simply gone too far
First off, as far as i know the money isn't going into circulation it'll be parked in banks and the effect on the rates are going to be minimal (as you've also indicated). That money will not be used to lend to americans simply because banks haven't engaged in the consumer lending activity. THAT confidence is not there, yet. Banks are not stupid, they will find better risk/reward...
However, simply doing nothing would have been devastating to the whole world, not only the US.
Perhaps you can enlighten me on what else the Fed could have done and what the outcome of your suggestions would most likely be.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #55,760
- Edited 6:59am Sep 21, 2012 6:31am | Edited 6:59am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
it is like ping pong
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it