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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #55,641
  • Sep 20, 2012 6:10pm Sep 20, 2012 6:10pm
I hope it goes high enough to get my pending sell @1.2990, and then the b#stard crashes until next year so I can scale in my longs cause the idiot politicians will eventually drive the bus over the cliff along with the USD. Those guys would chop off their nose to spite their face! A pox on all their houses!

I just don't see a definitive solution in the cards for the EZ without fiscal unity. At the moment there are too many cooks in the kitchen. Only time and the market will reveal itself.
  • #55,642
  • Sep 20, 2012 6:19pm Sep 20, 2012 6:19pm
Quoting TRMZXT
Possibly this is going to go back up starting today into next week and retest with the possible bottom formed.

I am not a fan of Asian session as it rarely does anything except maybe help move the market against a S/R level so Europe can run the other way which is always what I look for or run off a very high or low S/R level as it has nowhere else to go. When major news hits it might do something but for the most part it lacks and power to go anywhere. US did little because Europe took all the fun out early. So sideways it was to consolidate...
Typically, a week's moves are partially reversed on a Friday. However there is nothing typical about this market with all the verbal red herrings from the big boys.

Goldman Sachs and other big boys are publicly making bullish Euro calls and the lemmings are jumping in and setting up loads and loads of sell stop losses so that the same gang of big banks can come along at a higher price and run all the stops through a combination of a few big fat shorts and a fictitious (or perhaps not so fictitious) rumor. Wait for it.

I am actually looking forward to a nice big spike upwards so I can hammer the crap out of it as soon as it overshoots it's range. Perfect RR for sure.

Here's some of the reasoning behind my sentiment:

The EuroZone is contracting at an annualized GDP of -2% in Q3.
At the same time, the US is growing at an annualized GDP of +1.7% in Q3. Where do you think capital is going to flow?

The ECB is very likely to further cut their rate by another .25% next month.

If/when the shiznit hits the fan, capital flows to safe havens (USD and JPY) and not to risk assets.

The 1100+ pip rally made no fundamental sense.
However, from a sentiment perspective it makes lots of sense.
The mass psychology of the market is such that it reacts to fear and greed.
The anticipation of Bernanke moose juice and Draghi "save the Euro" got the markets to front run the whole bloody thing out of greed.
Massive short covering ensued out of fear.
Now it's time for reality.
Same thing always happens.
Rinse and repeat.

The economic numbers, whilst they may very well be fictitious at times, are what drives sentiment once the initial knee jerk reaction is over.

China is a barometer for global production.
They are the manufacturers of the world.
They almost have a monopoly on it, and their numbers are starting to hurt badly.
Demand is down and now all the rats will be coming out of hiding.
Fraud will be uncovered. Real economic numbers will be revealed and the whole world will be seeking to preserve what capital they have left.
Now where do you think they believe that capital will be preserved? Certainly not in Eurozone sovereign debt.

3 to 5 years from now, the EZ may once again become powerful in the global economy and the Euro may very well trade above $1.50 again, but not this or next year and that's for sure. In fact I fully expect 1.2041 to be tested again. Who knows? Perhaps even make a new low.

As for QE-Infinity, yes there will be more money in circulation, but it does not have to debase the currency because it will be used to lend to Americans to re-finance their houses or to purchase/build new ones and not to invest in foreign sovereign debt instruments (certainly not EZ sovs anyway). So that means that USDs will not be exchanged for Euros and Yen and Aussie dollars or emerging market currencies, but actually used in the US as USDs. Furthermore, when the construction industry starts showing some hope, capital from Europe and Asia will flood in to USD to invest in the only market that will be yielding a decent return with low relative risk.

I called Bernanke a friggin idiot and I cursed him up and down for launching QE-Infinity, but after thinking about it, I think he's made a smart move for the US.

Time will tell... Perhaps I'm the idiot
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #55,643
  • Sep 20, 2012 6:39pm Sep 20, 2012 6:39pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Typically, a week's moves are partially reversed on a Friday. However there is nothing typical about this market with all the verbal red herrings from the big boys.

Goldman Sachs and other big boys are publicly making bullish Euro calls and the lemmings are jumping in and setting up loads and loads of sell stop losses so that the same gang of big banks can come along at a higher price and run all the stops through a combination of a few big fat shorts and a fictitious (or perhaps not so fictitious) rumor. Wait for it.

I am actually looking...

No he is a idiot. I agree with your overall sentiment. I just know how the overall thing likes to retest such large moves up. NICE LARGE double top testing and failing JUST as Mario drops the INt rate. Overall I think it will go down but a retest is way to easy at this sentimental of QE3 level. We have 1 week until a HUGE news week with a very light news week next week with sentiment this is only a retracement and long is the way to go long term. Yeah right. (sarcasm) That is enough time for one drive up to retest and then dump and when I mean dump I am talking about as fast as it got up here it will go down as fast for a interest rate cut by the Euro. Imagine that. Time for retest of top JUST in time for it to fall like a rock the next week. Thanks as always for your insight.

Also as you mentioned overeation to things. It goes both ways and yes 1.200 will be tested pretty quickly IMO.
  • #55,644
  • Sep 20, 2012 6:43pm Sep 20, 2012 6:43pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Typically, a week's moves are partially reversed on a Friday. However there is nothing typical about this market with all the verbal red herrings from the big boys.

Goldman Sachs and other big boys are publicly making bullish Euro calls and the lemmings are jumping in and setting up loads and loads of sell stop losses so that the same gang of big banks can come along at a higher price and run all the stops through a combination of a few big fat shorts and a fictitious (or perhaps not so fictitious) rumor. Wait for it.

I am actually looking...
Great post brother! Preachin' to the choir!

If I had written that I would have been accused of being inebriated by the exuberance of my own verbosity!

Thought it was time for an avatar and profile picture change more befitting of the times!
  • #55,645
  • Sep 20, 2012 6:52pm Sep 20, 2012 6:52pm
also better ways of fixing the economy than what the Fed is doing but it won't happen when socialism of the world is the overall goal and monetary crisis pushes the overall agenda. Won't get into conspiracy of NWO but IMO it's a fact. Created and controlled crisis basics 101 see Great Depression. All that is for another time and place.
  • #55,646
  • Sep 20, 2012 6:56pm Sep 20, 2012 6:56pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
Hey Wulf, it won't allow me to access the trading link in your sig. It says I cannot access someone else's portfolio...
so I says to the site "I'm Wulgar b*tches!",

the site says, "No your not, you're that goofy Gofer Pips dude!",

so I says "How do you know?"

and the site says, "I know everything cause big brother sees all!"

So now I'm scared!

Tom please ignore previous. I don't need you starting conspiratorial mumbo jumbo stuff!
Oops! just checked... Had it set to private... lol
  • #55,647
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:03pm Sep 20, 2012 7:03pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
I hope it goes high enough to get my pending sell @1.2990, and then the b#stard crashes until next year so I can scale in my longs cause the idiot politicians will eventually drive the bus over the cliff along with the USD. Those guys would chop off their nose to spite their face! A pox on all their houses!

I just don't see a definitive solution in the cards for the EZ without fiscal unity. At the moment there are too many cooks in the kitchen. Only time and the market will reveal itself.
I see the resistance cluster at the 1.2980/1.2990 area

Im a bit more conservative... If it goes up there and then reverses and triggers the 1.2967... then Ill go short on the break.... I like to wait for a trigger number coming back before jumping in...

If price stalls and cant break the 67 trigger after going up to the 80/90 area Ill drop in some very low risk longs in the 70's concurrent with a proper momentum PA setup( with a recovery stop/reverse at the 67)

I also have full attention on the EurAud...3 str8 red sessions... good sign a mid term top is in for a possible easy break short....
  • #55,648
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:11pm Sep 20, 2012 7:11pm
PT remember also that the feds actions are demand side economics. Holding such a large balance sheet(3.5trl) of unrealized losses is well into heavy deflationary risk....

Look what happens when the BOJ launches stimulus. They have so much deflationary pressure that the yen weakness lasts all of a few days before the excess supply is quickly bought up and the yen continues to strengthen.

Its a bottomless pit as the debt-to-gdp ratio rises and the CB's monetize heavier and heavier. The USD will see new heights in relative strength because of these fed actions.

I agree with what u said about watching for capitulation. When the sign is clear Ill enter some positions. Until then Im just trading intraday/swing and banking profits. It is more labor intensive but that is OK for now.

Wulf
  • #55,649
  • Sep 20, 2012 8:12pm Sep 20, 2012 8:12pm
Quoting Wulfgar
I see the resistance cluster at the 1.2980/1.2990 area

Im a bit more conservative... If it goes up there and then reverses and triggers the 1.2967... then Ill go short on the break.... I like to wait for a trigger number coming back before jumping in...

If price stalls and cant break the 67 trigger after going up to the 80/90 area Ill drop in some very low risk longs in the 70's concurrent with a proper momentum PA setup( with a recovery stop/reverse at the 67)

I also have full attention on the EurAud...3 str8 red sessions... good sign...

triggered... stops above the 1.3
  • #55,650
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:50pm Sep 20, 2012 11:50pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
Well it's dead here, so I will head out and watch my Carolina Panthers, hopefully beat the New York Giants in Foosball tonight. I'll check you later!


Even Long......Ken has left his post!
I am trying to connect the dots but don't know if I was right. Japan has been trying very hard to weaken the Yen with the Easing. It worked for few hours then back to square one after being bought up as safe haven - risk-off and funding currency.

Then China came out with weak economy data, the whole thing turned and also the tension with Japan. I still think it's very easy to exploit market sentiment. All export countries are not happy with weak dollar contrary to US.

Yesterday we have seen Asian and EZ weaken but US session brought it up again with bad unemployment claim - then as expected Flash Manufacturing PMI - followed by extreme good Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

I really don't know what to believe, just don't want to be caught in between, if possible
  • #55,651
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:55pm Sep 20, 2012 11:55pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
Well it's dead here, so I will head out and watch my Carolina Panthers, hopefully beat the New York Giants in Foosball tonight. I'll check you later!


Even Long......Ken has left his post!
Ouch....
panthers just didnt show up
  • #55,652
  • Sep 21, 2012 12:08am Sep 21, 2012 12:08am
There are a lot of liquidity in the market. Buy on DIP will bring the market up again. Let's see what London does.
  • #55,653
  • Sep 21, 2012 1:16am Sep 21, 2012 1:16am
Market has taken out the 1.3000 and has the liquidity it needed to go back down.
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #55,654
  • Sep 21, 2012 1:53am Sep 21, 2012 1:53am
Morning everyone... took the short @ 3000 consolidation in the 70 area should confirm the way down with a ride for the day's range as I anticipate 3000 was the top...let's see.
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Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
  • #55,655
  • Sep 21, 2012 1:58am Sep 21, 2012 1:58am
Quoting ohenry
Morning everyone... took the short @ 3000 consolidation in the 70 area should confirm the way down with a ride for the day's range as I anticipate 3000 was the top...let's see.
GM - I too sold a partial on that spike thru the 3000 - now I'll watch to see what the London guys do before adding - they might take it higher.....TWT

So far, the daily pivot is holding as support....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #55,656
  • Sep 21, 2012 1:59am Sep 21, 2012 1:59am
1.3000-25 is a bunch of offers from sovereigns, the books are showing strong demand down at 1.2900-20, and more 1.2850-55.

I to took a short @ 1.3000, though I will scale out and trail the stop.
  • #55,657
  • Edited 2:22am Sep 21, 2012 2:01am | Edited 2:22am
Good morning and happy Friday to all.

Economic data was quite dismal for the Eurozone as reflected no only through the Manufacturing and Services PMI numbers, but also through the projected GDP figures for Q3 2012. Whilst Germany's PMI numbers are still managing to float barely above the 50 mark (More than 50 = expansion. Less than 50 = contraction), the rest of the Eurozone is still deep into contraction mode with France showing a dismal 42.6 in their manufacturing sector. This is certainly not good for the Eurozone and is largely reflected in the prices this morning after the rout dust has had a chance to settle. More specifically, Equities, commodities and all majors have managed to fully recover from their losses and then some yesterday, the USD has lost most of its gains, and yet the Euro barely managed to retrace 50%

Today is Friday and it is a very slow news day; at least that's what the economic event calendar says. It does not mean that one of the talking heads won't say something stupid. Usually Fridays see the week's losses or gains partially reversed as traders and investors cash out of their winning positions heading into the weekend. If that is the case today, then one would expect to see some more USD weakness and as a result, even some more Euro strength.

Weekly technicals have still not changed other than price having pulled back over 200 pips from my key technical resistance levels. This is encouraging for my bearish outlook as it looks like price will be providing a weekly close below my key levels. The key levels I am talking about are the fibo levels on my weekly chart. More specifically they are

1. 38.2% fibo of the May 2011 High to July 2012 Low @ 1.3148
2. 50% fibo of the Oct 2011 High to July 2012 Low @ 1.3144
3. 78.6% fibo of the Feb 2012 High to July 2012 Low @ 1.3176

The high so far is 1.3170; just 6 pips shy of the 78.6% level, which we will certainly not re-test today unless some really Euro positive or USD negative news hits the wires and causes a frantic rally in this pair.

To me there are currently two important levels to watch for in this pair. They are the 1.3170 high we had on Monday and the 1.2925 low we saw yesterday, and I will be expecting to see a nice break below 1.2925 and then a further break below 1.2880 to confirm that the bulls have capitulated and the bears are back in control. Any significant moves upwards towards the weekly high of 1.3170, is to me just another opportunity to add more shorts with a great risk/reward ratio.

Note that throughout the day today there will be many option expirations in various assets and may cause higher than normal market volume which may leave you thinking that some positive or negative news has been released. This is a normal phenomenon on Triple Witching Fridays so don't be alarmed.

Be well, trade safe and have a great weekend.

E/U Weekly
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #55,658
  • Sep 21, 2012 2:03am Sep 21, 2012 2:03am
Orderboard

Written by Pete Jackson
September 21, 2012 at 06:12 GMT

EUR/USD: Bids/tech support hourly downward trend channel support 1.2950/60, and bids 1.2920/30 (20 Sep low 1.2920). Offers 1.3000/10 and 1.3030/50, buy stops above ahead of more offers 1.3075/85

GBP/USD: Bids 1.6200/20, sell stops below ahead of more bids 1.6160/70 also with sell stops below. Offers 1.6265/75, possible buy stops above ahead of offers into a 1.6300 barrier.

EUR/GBP: Offers 0.8000/05 (50% of 5-14 Sept rise 0.8001) and 0.8050/55, Bids/tech 0.7975/80 (38.2% retrac of July22-Sept 14 rally 0.7977) ahead of 100 day MA at 0.7965.

USD/JPY: Bids 78.00/10(semi official, Kampo) sell stops through 77.90 below ahead of larger bids 77.50/70. Offers 78.40/50, 78.80/00 (78.80 cloud base, 100 day MA 79.00), buy stops through cloud top 79.27

EUR/JPY: Bids 101.40/50 and 101.00/10, sell stops below. Tech res 101.78 (200 day MA). Offers 101.80/00(Japanese banks), possible buy stops above and through 102.40

AUD/JPY: Bids 81.55/65 and 81.00/10 likely sell stops below ahead of tech supp 80.64 (100 day MA). Offers 81.90/00 (81.70-55 day MA, 200 day MA 81.95), buy stops through 82.00 ahead of more offers 82.20/30.

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0425/35 ahead of more at 1.0400/10 (55 day MA at 1.0402). Offers 1.0475 up to 1.0500 with large buy stops above ahead of more offers 1.0540/50

EUR/AUD: Bids 1.2400/10, 1.2375/85, likely sell stops below ahead of tech supp 1.2300/10. (Currently under 200 day MA at 1.2412). Offers 1.2430/40 and 1.2450/60
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #55,659
  • Sep 21, 2012 2:04am Sep 21, 2012 2:04am
Today’s option expiries

Written by Pete Jackson
September 21, 2012 at 04:35 GMT

For the 1000NY/1400GMT cut

EUR/USD: 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2910, 1.2940, 1.2990, 1.3085, 1.3100

USD/JPY: 78.20, 78.40

GBP/USD: 1.6120, 1.6250

EUR/GBP: 0.7945

AUD/USD: 1.0410, 1.0450, 1.0460

AUD/JPY: 82.50
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #55,660
  • Sep 21, 2012 2:13am Sep 21, 2012 2:13am
PipTrapper, dount you think that it is a bit too little for bear positions to take profits, so may be the bull position may take profits more likely? Moreover - next friday is the last in this month so perhaps more profit taking are planed then..?
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