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  • #695,381
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:03pm Sep 20, 2012 1:03pm
Quoting attila
3025 possible if it stays above here.
My tp and shorts are clustered around there.
  • #695,382
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:03pm Sep 20, 2012 1:03pm
Quoting RWalker
I actually saw what I thought was a false start before I went sleep around 1030PM EST... but it kept goin!!!!
I got up at 2.15 am BST and went all the way till noon London ...some times the japs and the chineese helps specially when they dont have any one wake to defend they ride their ride
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #695,383
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:05pm Sep 20, 2012 1:05pm
Quoting attila
I don't know.. I'm not saying that.. On moves like the one last week the banks are made short by their customers, and in general would like to see the price back to where it started... Tomorrow is Friday, and in general the PA goes the other way than during the week... I'm not saying it can't drop. I'm watching that 34-35 level as well, but I think it's being set up for a long.. I could be wrong but that's what I have atm.
"...banks are made short..."

So you think they might "help" it a little?
  • #695,384
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:06pm Sep 20, 2012 1:06pm
Quoting RWalker
"...banks are made short..."

So you think they might "help" it a little?
Not participating IS "help".
  • #695,385
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:12pm Sep 20, 2012 1:12pm
Quoting attila
Not participating IS "help".
Ok. Now I've confused myself: if by banks being made short you mean they've been the broker/dealer counterparty to long positions opened on Thrus and Fri, they would be short and want to see the price go down so they can offset at a profit (assuming they are still short). Right?

That would mean they'd like the price to go down. No?
  • #695,386
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:16pm Sep 20, 2012 1:16pm
Quoting RWalker
Ok. Now I've confused myself: if by banks being made short you mean they've been the broker/dealer counterparty to long positions opened on Thrus and Fri, they would be short and want to see the price go down so they can offset at a profit (assuming they are still short). Right?

That would mean they'd like the price to go down. No?
yeah, that's the idea... Get the price to where it started..What exactly they do behind the scenes, that I don't know.. I could be right, I could be wrong but more often than not, after some important event, the price comes back to the starting point..
  • #695,387
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:16pm Sep 20, 2012 1:16pm
Quoting Ultimate6
do you use or recognise any of these words?

linear regression, matrix algebra, johansen / adf tests etc? arima, garch
sorry for delay had to go out :-)

made extensive use of arima models and various regression models. also spent a lot of time of market efficiency models that try to determine how efficient the current market is in moving between prices bands - which is the secret to knowing what kind of model algo to deply.
  • #695,388
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:18pm Sep 20, 2012 1:18pm
Quoting attila
Not participating IS "help".
Hi Attila does the spinner on the 4h mean anything but indecision or are we indeed going up from here ?
  • #695,389
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:18pm Sep 20, 2012 1:18pm
HOT TIPS!!

70% retrance up or 30% strong move down.
  • #695,390
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:22pm Sep 20, 2012 1:22pm
Quoting attila
yeah, that's the idea... Get the price to where it started..What exactly they do behind the scenes, that I don't know.. I could be right, I could be wrong but more often than not, after some important event, the price comes back to the starting point..
Yeah, okay. I see what you're saying now! (getting comments and contexts crossed here: before today / after today)

Thanx
  • #695,391
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:23pm Sep 20, 2012 1:23pm
Quoting riprider
Hi Attila does the spinner on the 4h mean anything but indecision or are we indeed going up from here ?
I'm not a fan of h4 because we have different server times, so not everybody sees the same thing.. I have a pin bar, and the current one is trying to engulf it with an hour and forty minutes left.. It looks undecided to me.. The low of the hammer could also be tested if it wants to..
  • #695,392
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:23pm Sep 20, 2012 1:23pm
Quoting attila
yeah, that's the idea... Get the price to where it started..What exactly they do behind the scenes, that I don't know.. I could be right, I could be wrong but more often than not, after some important event, the price comes back to the starting point..
as far as i know banks dont take positions (apart from their prop desks). They provide services for commissions. They trade with clients, then they hedge themselves in 2 ways mainly :
- dealing with brokers to offset positions (fx, vol, correl)
- dealing with clients/other counterparties on deals that offset some of their risks (inhouse interest information system to show interest from traders in terms of risk unloading. At least that's how it was @ ML)

EDIT : one exception may be GS
  • #695,393
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:26pm Sep 20, 2012 1:26pm
Quoting divak
if u r developping of an algo i would be interested to know how you are calibrating the candlesticks.
I mean, in order for them to deliver an information about buying/selling, you need to know what they look like (doji, spinning top, etc...) and how they are built (open, low, high, close). So they must be some mathematical definitions that validate one description compared to the other.

for instance, this one is High X Low Y, with Close A and Open B, so because B/A, (B+A)= 0.5*(X+Y) then it is a doji, then its ....

How do u do those calibrations?

EDIT...


again sorry for delay.

candlestick patterns are generally for chartists not algos. Algos use prices over time and if using a timeseries will normally work on a close or median price.

systems that trade of chart patterns are not algos they are simply pattern recognition systems.

EDIT:

there are also two types of algos in play in the market, those that are designed to enter and exit trades for a profit and those that are designed to enter or exit large positions over a given price distribution, ideally without anybody knowing or rocking the price too much...
  • #695,394
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:27pm Sep 20, 2012 1:27pm
Quoting MaxDoom
sorry for delay had to go out :-)

made extensive use of arima models and various regression models. also spent a lot of time of market efficiency models that try to determine how efficient the current market is in moving between prices bands - which is the secret to knowing what kind of model algo to deply.
  • #695,395
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:29pm Sep 20, 2012 1:29pm
broken in next 5mins
  • #695,396
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:30pm Sep 20, 2012 1:30pm
strong R @60
  • #695,397
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:30pm Sep 20, 2012 1:30pm
Quoting divak
as far as i know banks dont take positions (apart from their prop desks). They provide services for commissions. They trade with clients, then they hedge themselves in 2 ways mainly :
- dealing with brokers to offset positions (fx, vol, correl)
- dealing with clients/other counterparties on deals that offset some of their risks (inhouse interest information system to show interest from traders in terms of risk unloading. At least that's how it was @ ML)

EDIT : one exception may be GS
GS recommended euro short... maybe it's time to load longs..
  • #695,398
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:32pm Sep 20, 2012 1:32pm
Some "good" spain bond buying plan.. This might be the trigger to get us out of this mess..
  • #695,399
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:34pm Sep 20, 2012 1:34pm
Quoting Avir
I got up at 2.15 am BST and went all the way till noon London ...some times the japs and the chineese helps specially when they dont have any one wake to defend they ride their ride
Too bad you can't stay up 24 hrs a day... now if I could just find some way of automating discretionary trading ...

Ahh! It moved! (...George Costanza) Gotta get back to trading.
  • #695,400
  • Sep 20, 2012 1:39pm Sep 20, 2012 1:39pm
Quoting RWalker
Too bad you can't stay up 24 hrs a day... now if I could just find some way of automating discretionary trading ...

Ahh! It moved! (...George Costanza) Gotta get back to trading.
Automated trading?? only if i have 10 mil just for trading, i see some movements here in EU hence i am off scalping till tomo laters all
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
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