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  • #3,421
  • Sep 20, 2012 8:47am Sep 20, 2012 8:47am
Quoting lovejoy80
Missed the DBD FTB early doors this morning (and some yen shorts too!), eyes on the 0.9762 SR level and the 0.9842 SR level now on this pair.

Join the club.... I had awarded this one with a green for go sticker in my dairy the other day, but failed to review pa moving toward intended entry thus never set up a limit sell order.


m
Constant and never ending improvement
  • #3,422
  • Sep 20, 2012 9:40am Sep 20, 2012 9:40am
Hi LJ , which level do you think is more legit for the FTB ? Not taking , just studying the charts ... And in situations like these , when there are 2-3 nice levels one on top of the other , all untested , which one should be looked at to trade ?
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Human
  • #3,423
  • Sep 20, 2012 10:26am Sep 20, 2012 10:26am
I'm still on a business trip. Many new people during my absence!! Looks like LJ got many questions, but as always he is too good to ignore any simple questions.

Will be back home some time next week. See you all then. Good trading to all!!
  • #3,424
  • Sep 20, 2012 10:53am Sep 20, 2012 10:53am
Quoting Chanya
Hi LJ , which level do you think is more legit for the FTB ? Not taking , just studying the charts ... And in situations like these , when there are 2-3 nice levels one on top of the other , all untested , which one should be looked at to trade ?
Hi

You need to zoom in on the 15min you will see that there is r b r at
.7608 which is in alignment with a no of swing highs

regards

m
Constant and never ending improvement
  • #3,425
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:18am Sep 20, 2012 11:18am
Quoting Balhana
I'm still on a business trip. Many new people during my absence!! Looks like LJ got many questions, but as always he is too good to ignore any simple questions.

Will be back home some time next week. See you all then. Good trading to all!!
Can't trade with the company computer but watch the charts whenever I can.

Take a look at the chart. EA is at very interesting level.
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  • #3,426
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:37am Sep 20, 2012 11:37am
Quoting matk
Any thoughts on this one
Okay, first a caveat - I'm not going into ton's of detail on this because I'm really focussed on teaching certain set strategies and concepts, rather than everything I use in my own trading.

Part of that is to do with time and part due to the fact not everything can be taught via a forum ,trading room etc. Certain concepts and subjects are more advanced and are better taught 1-1 with traders I know are at the right level.

But here is just something to show how the same concepts behind a more core FTB setup can be used in another way (before I get to your actual question!).

The first chart below is a daily chart, we can clearly see the we have a daily SR and price recently had a strong breakout above this SR. In fact on this TF it doesn't look this resistance level caused a reaction at all. Of course all those that have followed me for a while should know that 'zooming into a lower TF will show you something that a higher TF is hiding'.

http://i1098.photobucket.com/albums/...psac0c19ad.png

Next chart is the M1 TF at the scene of the daily breakout through the SR (with the daily chart inset to the left for reference). Comments on chart should make sense if you've watching my video on finding decision points.

http://i1098.photobucket.com/albums/...ps97f10ddb.png

Lastly, a 5min chart of when price hit this area today...

http://i1098.photobucket.com/albums/...ps6c3df4da.png

As I said above, this is not standard FTB trading, but it is using the same concepts (supply, demand, FTB, SR's, decision points) to find where price should bounce on the pull-back to a major daily SR.
  • #3,427
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:41am Sep 20, 2012 11:41am
Quoting Balhana
I'm still on a business trip. Many new people during my absence!! Looks like LJ got many questions, but as always he is too good to ignore any simple questions.

Will be back home some time next week. See you all then. Good trading to all!!
Hey Sang, good to hear from you. Hope the company is paying for the Hotel Wifi bill!
  • #3,428
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:57am Sep 20, 2012 11:57am
Going back to the original question, here is how I have identified the area on H1 and M5.

It's not really how I like my zones for the really easy FTB trades - i.e. tight consolidation with strong breakout that is clear on H1 and/or H4. This is more of a wider gradual zone - in fact the whole area down to the daily demand was a gradual move really until price broke out with very strong momentum within that small RBR that can bee seen on M5 - it's this tiny zone that would be off interest to me together with the daily SR @ 125.62 etc.

Thus I wouldn't be treating this as a standard FTB trade, I'd be watching more closely how price approached, what was happening with UJ and other risk sentiment driven asset classes - I'd either take it as a TT with lower risk or watch VLTF for PA.
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  • #3,429
  • Sep 20, 2012 12:05pm Sep 20, 2012 12:05pm
Quoting matk
Hi LJ

The feed back is appreciated, I reduced my risk on this one because I did consider this set up not so strong,

What do you think of the attached in terms of structure I made some notes on the chart Eur Aud

regards m
I have two potential H1 SR levels for the FTB on this pair.

Thoughts on the M5 chart below.
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  • #3,430
  • Sep 20, 2012 12:18pm Sep 20, 2012 12:18pm
Quoting 5.25
Hey Sang, good to hear from you. Hope the company is paying for the Hotel Wifi bill!
Hey Tomek, it is free here. But I'm tied up with work so not enough time to use wifi. Just want to trade whenever I see some setups. Good trading to you and see you next week.
  • #3,431
  • Sep 20, 2012 12:38pm Sep 20, 2012 12:38pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Please read this post regarding strategies. Details of strategies have previously only been available for my members, this is slowly changing.
Thanks LJ.
Success is 1 % intelligence and 99% perseverance - Edison
  • #3,432
  • Sep 20, 2012 12:40pm Sep 20, 2012 12:40pm
Quoting Chanya
Hi LJ , which level do you think is more legit for the FTB ? Not taking , just studying the charts ... And in situations like these , when there are 2-3 nice levels one on top of the other , all untested , which one should be looked at to trade ?
Personally, I'm only looking at obvious levels on H1, H4 for my standard FTB trades and the lower one stands out much more than the upper one due to the number of recent touches. We can tell this was clear supply that has been overcome and thus I now expect it to be demand on the retrace.

The upper one does not have these clear touches and thus it is not as easy to tell whether this was strong supply that was overcome or not.

Of course we can zoom in if we wish and see what the VLTF tells us and as you can see we had an RBR here which held on the retest.

My preference is find the setups that look clear on H1, H4 and then zoom in for FTB's whether it be SR's or SD's. This gives me just about the right number of setups across various pairs that I can comfortable handle each week (together with other strategies I use of course).
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  • #3,433
  • Sep 20, 2012 12:43pm Sep 20, 2012 12:43pm
Quoting Balhana
Can't trade with the company computer but watch the charts whenever I can.

Take a look at the chart. EA is at very interesting level.
Nice, but the more touches the stronger the 'level' no?



Good to hear from you, hope your business trip is going well.
  • #3,434
  • Sep 20, 2012 12:51pm Sep 20, 2012 12:51pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Nicely explained TJ.

1. Large large players want to enter positions without 'slippage' - slippage occurs when there is not enough liquidity for the orders at a certain price so price moves to the next level until all orders are consumed at that level etc.

2. Thus if a large player wants to enter orders without obtaining a worse price they need to split up the orders and enter them in smaller chunks and find 'liquidity'.

3. Liquidity exists at price levels where there is a cluster of order-flow - in an up trend where can you guarantee there to...
I like the way and indepth details that you put in your inputs for a chart pattern you trade and that too explained in such simple expression of words. Truely admire your indepth research and knowledge of market behaviour.

Happy to be here.

Many Thanks LJ !
Success is 1 % intelligence and 99% perseverance - Edison
  • #3,435
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:41pm Sep 20, 2012 2:41pm
Frustrated by this one, missed getting on the boat off the yen pair retracements and this one was the stand out setup (AJ H1)

Very clear SR at the edge of that zone which comes as no surprise that price reacted to it and just hit my final TP.
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  • #3,436
  • Sep 20, 2012 4:43pm Sep 20, 2012 4:43pm
That looks like a setup worth betting money on.

Similar PA on AU but upside momentum seems to be much stronger on this one + D1 continuation PB.
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  • #3,437
  • Sep 20, 2012 4:50pm Sep 20, 2012 4:50pm
Various D1 trades through the night made it a profitable start to London open.

A day of missed opportunities. Classic FB on UCAD with a potential 3-4R, EUSD FTB but did not materialise as anticipated. Closed at BE+.
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  • #3,438
  • Sep 20, 2012 5:10pm Sep 20, 2012 5:10pm
Quoting Greenhaze
That looks like a setup worth betting money on.

Similar PA on AU but upside momentum seems to be much stronger on this one + D1 continuation PB.
Nice history at this level on H1 too...
  • #3,439
  • Sep 20, 2012 5:26pm Sep 20, 2012 5:26pm
Thought I would use GAUD to take a little leap forward beyond FTB's and FB's into something more advanced...just a snippet to share the thought process behind watching price action.

Now with GAUD we've had a SD zone FTB short which dropped to the SR FTB long and price has made it's way back up to the supply zone again.

Relevant posts of the FTB trades:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...71#post6021971

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...48#post6026548

So now price is back up at supply we don't know whether supply has been consumed and price is going to head higher or whether supply is still strong enough to reject price and turn it lower - so we have to watch price action.

I've quickly annotated an M5 TF chart and a H1 TF chart to share the thought process behind what I consider to be 'pure' price action.

Essentially all I'm looking for is:

1. Rejections from supply and demand
2. Consumption of supply and demand

That is all price action boils down too - interpreting whether price is being rejected from supply or demand or whether it is consuming it.

I don't go searching my charts for patterns - patterns are a derivative of the above stripped back price action. Unfortunately, most people don't have this type of mindset and can't read price like this and have to go searching their charts for specific patterns that form in a certain way.

There is a reason you'll find tons of material in books and on the internet on patterns, but very little on actually reading price in terms of 'rejection from supply/demand' and 'consumption off supply/demand'.
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  • #3,440
  • Sep 21, 2012 1:22am Sep 21, 2012 1:22am
1st losing trade for a while (though not a trade I took on my main accounts - it triggered at a time of day I don't trade), the UCAD FTB long.

The EAUD trade also missed my order by 1 pip (order was @ 1.2387 but Oanda low was 1.2385 versus FxPro low of 1.2383).
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