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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #55,601
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:09am Sep 20, 2012 11:09am
Quoting Ken A
I was stopped out by trailing for about 100 pips for EUR/TRY. If I closed manually perhaps 200 or 300 pips.
u mean with eurtry Turkish lira?
  • #55,602
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:11am Sep 20, 2012 11:11am
Quoting letscry
u mean with eurtry Turkish lira?
I think it's Turkish Keebab so I was told.
  • #55,603
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:13am Sep 20, 2012 11:13am
Quoting Ken A
I think it's Turkish Keebab so I was told.
well this is eur/try graph, it never saw those numbers for years , i am from Turkey btwn.
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  • #55,604
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:17am Sep 20, 2012 11:17am
Quoting letscry
well this is eur/try graph, it never saw those numbers for years , i am from Turkey btwn.
It was the wrong screen capture. I have edited the previous post.

Is this the same EUR/TRY? I think it was over 500 pips but I didn't calculate.
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  • #55,605
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:20am Sep 20, 2012 11:20am
Quoting letscry
well this is eur/try graph, it never saw those numbers for years , i am from Turkey btwn.
I wonder what would happen to TRY if the US uses Turkey as a platform to invade Syria, then Iran....
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #55,606
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:21am Sep 20, 2012 11:21am
Quoting Ken A
It was the wrong screen capture. I have edited the previous post.

Is this the same EUR/TRY? I think it was over 500 pips but I didn't calculate.

yup right 1 it saw 2.3650 area
  • #55,607
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:23am Sep 20, 2012 11:23am
Quoting cgldsmth
I wonder what would happen to TRY if the US uses Turkey as a platform to invade Syria, then Iran....
us tried to use for iraq government didnt give permission,unoficially there is a nato base at Adana/Turkey which is mainly full with us soldiers and planes i think they use it already
  • #55,608
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:26am Sep 20, 2012 11:26am
Quoting letscry
us tried to use for iraq government didnt give permission,unoficially there is a nato base at Adana/Turkey which is mainly full with us soldiers and planes i think they use it already
Well, a big inflow to TRY assets is what I'd expect
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #55,609
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:26am Sep 20, 2012 11:26am
Quoting letscry
yup right 1 it saw 2.3650 area
Oh damn. If I closed manually could've netted 800 pips instead of 500 pips stopped out by trailing. Oh well......
  • #55,610
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:30am Sep 20, 2012 11:30am
Quoting PipTrapper
Or if Asia decides to take this opportunity to dump some USD at a good price.

Once the CBs start screwing with the market, nothing works the way it should.
1.2960 tested 5x today. What do you think PT?
  • #55,611
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:33am Sep 20, 2012 11:33am
Quoting letscry
sp breaking 1450 again and gold near 1770 this should have carry eur/usd higher
Not necessarily.
Just because risk assets go up does not mean the Euro has to follow.

If US equities are being purchased, then that would be USD positive or neutral.
Oil is priced in USD. Gold in priced in USD also.

It is only when capital flies out of USD into another currency (such as European or emerging market currencies) that the USD loses value.

In fact, if Europeans are buying USD denominated risk assets, that would be Euro negative.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #55,612
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:37am Sep 20, 2012 11:37am
Quoting cgldsmth
but have you seen Maria Bartiromo naked?
Oh no thankyou. Ughhh. LOL
Now Kelly Evans? That would be nice
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #55,613
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:40am Sep 20, 2012 11:40am
Quoting Ken A
1.2960 tested 5x today. What do you think PT?
I think we go sideways into Asia and then we'll see. If Asia manages to push it up a bit, then it is sell time. If Asia pushes it down, then it's over for the bulls and we're heading down hard.

My gut feeling tells me that we will be ranging into the weekend. Tomorrow is a slow news day.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #55,614
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:46am Sep 20, 2012 11:46am
Quoting PipTrapper
Not necessarily.
Just because risk assets go up does not mean the Euro has to follow.

If US equities are being purchased, then that would be USD positive or neutral.
Oil is priced in USD. Gold in priced in USD also.

It is only when capital flies out of USD into another currency (such as European or emerging market currencies) that the USD loses value.

In fact, if Europeans are buying USD denominated risk assets, that would be Euro negative.
This kind of knowledge I was talking about in the mnorning!
69
  • #55,615
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:46am Sep 20, 2012 11:46am
Quoting PipTrapper
I think we go sideways into Asia and then we'll see. If Asia manages to push it up a bit, then it is sell time. If Asia pushes it down, then it's over for the bulls and we're heading down hard.

My gut feeling tells me that we will be ranging into the weekend. Tomorrow is a slow news day.
Alright. I want to try making 1,000 pips in 1 position if possible.
  • #55,616
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:48am Sep 20, 2012 11:48am
Quoting Likerty
This kind of knowledge I was talking about in the mnorning!
You were talking about Security, not this.
  • #55,617
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:48am Sep 20, 2012 11:48am
Quoting PipTrapper
Oh no thankyou. Ughhh. LOL
Now Kelly Evans? That would be nice
Ok, how about Melissa Lee? (but you expected that from me )
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I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #55,618
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:51am Sep 20, 2012 11:51am
Quoting Cgb
Ok, how about Melissa Lee? (but you expected that from me )
Yes I did
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #55,619
  • Sep 20, 2012 11:51am Sep 20, 2012 11:51am
Italy slashes GDP forecast
2012 seen down –2.4% from previous 1.2% forecast
Deficit seen rising to 2.6% of GDP from previous forecast of 1.7%
Debt seen rising to 126.4% of GDP this year versus 123.4%

Not good for Euro at all. and I am sure this is just the tip of the iceberg.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #55,620
  • Sep 20, 2012 12:01pm Sep 20, 2012 12:01pm
USDX has been very slowly making a turn up on the hourly chart.
Friday's 09/14 closing hourly bar on US equities had a large range with low of 77.80 and high of 79.89. I do not remember it happening but it is on my charting platform. Since then the index has been creeping upwards and if we get a close above the 79.58 level we will have retraced the last support level before the fall.
Retraces have been shallow and gains small but consistent.

Two options from this, either the downtend in the USD is turned up and last Friday was the climax move or this is just another bear flag forming and another leg down will transpire.

From the beginning of February until early May we had four successive bottom tests around the 78.50 level. So either we have returned to a range for the USD or this move of the last several days was a market retest of the lows and now technicaly the USD is positioned to climb once again and is currently doing so. All be it, very slowly.

Fundamentaly Europe is only starting to address its massive debt problems which remain unresolved without growth. Bailouts can not change the future and Europes economic numbers do not show any change in ongoing weakness.

The frictions in Asia have revealed just how big the slowdown is becoming there. The US is not able to buy up Asia's overcapacity and Europe does not have the money as well.

Will trade this coming period based upon these thoughts as a slow grind higher in the USD. If it plays out as this indicates it will entail position trading which over the past few years has been very difficult to accomplish with high volatility markets.

There is no real momentum to hitch a star onto, So the choice would seem either to daytrade or get the direction right and hold on for very slow but cumulative gains. These appear the current options.

The only thing really supportive for this outlook is that Europes PMI numbers are seriously in the tank for enough countries that growth is nonexistent. Whereas the US has weak numbers, but not terribly underwater. UK is similar to the US in this manner, but becomes tainted by proximity to its core markets Europe.
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