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  • #3,401
  • Sep 19, 2012 3:40pm Sep 19, 2012 3:40pm
just one trade for me t'day, nice cable 15m-QM
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Pipcrawler
  • #3,402
  • Sep 19, 2012 3:42pm Sep 19, 2012 3:42pm
at the same time also a fiber 15m-QM, i went for the aforementioned cable QM .
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Pipcrawler
  • #3,403
  • Sep 19, 2012 3:57pm Sep 19, 2012 3:57pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Nicely explained TJ.

I would also add that (in regards to the first pattern) this is essentially 'distribution' - can you see that each new high is very quickly rejected - this is a sign of buyers starting to 'distribute' (unwind their long positions which of course is the same as shorting) their long positions.

To understand accumulation and distribution you need to understand the mechanics of how large players build positions and unwind positions. It's beyond what I want to get into here in a huge amount of detail, but to give a quick summary:

....
Great stuff LJ !
Pipcrawler
  • #3,404
  • Sep 19, 2012 3:58pm Sep 19, 2012 3:58pm
Quoting xmzhang
just one trade for me t'day, nice cable 15m-QM
Same here, only a loser. Disliked the way price approached this zone and chose to respect the trendline instead of my target.

If price continues remains in this channel, I may enter at 1.30227 (Give or take)
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  • #3,405
  • Sep 19, 2012 4:37pm Sep 19, 2012 4:37pm
Missed my alert going off on this one. Notice that price has arrived here from the SD zone FTB short we had yesterday.
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  • #3,406
  • Sep 19, 2012 4:48pm Sep 19, 2012 4:48pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Missed my alert going off on this one. Notice that price has arrived here from the SD zone FTB short we had yesterday.
Price did not touch the zone ... Infact , it was quite a distance from where price returned ... Are you going to discard the setup now or is it still valid ?

Same question for the charts in your last post ... Don't know what chart are those ...
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Human
  • #3,407
  • Sep 19, 2012 4:50pm Sep 19, 2012 4:50pm
Quoting Chanya
Price did not touch the zone ... Infact , it was quite a distance from where price returned ... Are you going to discard the setup now or is it still valid ?

Same question for the charts in your last post ... Don't know what chart are those ...
I believe they are GBPAUD h1.
  • #3,408
  • Sep 19, 2012 4:59pm Sep 19, 2012 4:59pm
As we speak:

I was looking at FTB on aussie 15m but with an increased spread due to time of day and distance to FLR, it did not merit an entry IMHO. (Market may prove me wrong as it often does lol)

It did what was expected.
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  • #3,409
  • Sep 19, 2012 4:59pm Sep 19, 2012 4:59pm
Quoting Chanya
Price did not touch the zone ... Infact , it was quite a distance from where price returned ... Are you going to discard the setup now or is it still valid ?

Same question for the charts in your last post ... Don't know what chart are those ...
Yes it was GAUD and the FTB has played itself out now, so setup has gone by the by.

I'm not as keen on AU as I was before so will watch how price approaches on this one.

The reason being that I'm looking at this whole zone as an important pivot zone and we have now had 3 rejections from this zone. This suggests that when price comes back again it could be gearing up for a break south below this whole zone (alternatively it could create a bear trap below those lows into our SR FTB).

Those lows are clearly going to provide some resistance if price does bounce from our SR FTB and there is now no real clear space to an obvious FLR that provides decent value.

So I'll be watching and will decide nearer the time (daily and H4 charts below).
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  • #3,410
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:06am Sep 20, 2012 2:06am
Quoting nonethewisa
Been watching this for a while, just waiting for retest of 9710 to enter.

Got stopped out overnight....the ascending triangle pattern developed into a rising wedge pattern and then broke south
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No more DOH! trades
  • #3,411
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:11am Sep 20, 2012 2:11am
Quoting lovejoy80
Yes it was GAUD and the FTB has played itself out now, so setup has gone by the by.

I'm not as keen on AU as I was before so will watch how price approaches on this one.

The reason being that I'm looking at this whole zone as an important pivot zone and we have now had 3 rejections from this zone. This suggests that when price comes back again it could be gearing up for a break south below this whole zone (alternatively it could create a bear trap below those lows into our SR FTB).

Those lows are clearly going to provide some resistance...
Looks like I made the right decision here....
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  • #3,412
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:13am Sep 20, 2012 2:13am
Quoting nonethewisa
Got stopped out overnight....the ascending triangle pattern developed into a rising wedge pattern and then broke south
I think you got in a bit too early on your long there. Don't see a decent reason to pre-empt that it was moving up...
  • #3,413
  • Sep 20, 2012 2:56am Sep 20, 2012 2:56am
Quoting lovejoy80
I think you got in a bit too early on your long there. Don't see a decent reason to pre-empt that it was moving up...

.....yes, i think its because i had been watching it too intently and saw things that werent there and couldnt wait to pull the trigger.
No more DOH! trades
  • #3,414
  • Sep 20, 2012 5:38am Sep 20, 2012 5:38am
Any thoughts on this one
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Constant and never ending improvement
  • #3,415
  • Sep 20, 2012 5:50am Sep 20, 2012 5:50am
Quoting lovejoy80
I didn't take this setup - UJ was strongly indicating it was going to break the support (strong selling into a 6th time back to this support) as per the chart below at the time and with UJ often leading the Yen majors it was a something to be taking notice off.

The move down into the area on GJ itself was also very impulsive which is a factor to bear in mind with FTB's from my experience (more on this another time).
Hi LJ

The feed back is appreciated, I reduced my risk on this one because I did consider this set up not so strong,

What do you think of the attached in terms of structure I made some notes on the chart Eur Aud

regards m
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Constant and never ending improvement
  • #3,416
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:10am Sep 20, 2012 7:10am
i've been watch'n the ltf only lately, so missed this beautifull 4H ozzie QM
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Pipcrawler
  • #3,417
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:30am Sep 20, 2012 7:30am
Quoting xmzhang
i've been watch'n the ltf only lately, so missed this beautifull 4H ozzie QM

Thats a beauty....theres also one 4/5ths formed on USDJPY H4...am keeping an eye on it
Attached Image
No more DOH! trades
  • #3,418
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:36am Sep 20, 2012 7:36am
Missed the DBD FTB early doors this morning (and some yen shorts too!), eyes on the 0.9762 SR level and the 0.9842 SR level now on this pair.
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  • #3,419
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:52am Sep 20, 2012 7:52am
Quoting lovejoy80
Missed the DBD FTB early doors this morning (and some yen shorts too!), eyes on the 0.9762 SR level and the 0.9842 SR level now on this pair.
what pair is this ?
Constant and never ending improvement
  • #3,420
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:55am Sep 20, 2012 7:55am
Quoting matk
what pair is this ?
That would be too easy

UCAD H1
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