EurAnalysis | Page 2777 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #55,521
  • Sep 20, 2012 6:54am Sep 20, 2012 6:54am
Quoting redteamgo
i remember!

recall also that past indicators are no guarantee of future movement. like i said, i am bearish long term but i am fully hedged and will stay that way through governmental and fiscal y/e. i'm looking past the next 1h,4h,1d bar. that monthly bear channel isnt looking so bearish at this very moment and there are major events in the near future can change the way you are looking at historical indicators.
Do you mean this coming election?
  • #55,522
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:02am Sep 20, 2012 7:02am
Quoting redteamgo
i remember!

recall also that past indicators are no guarantee of future movement. like i said, i am bearish long term but i am fully hedged and will stay that way through governmental and fiscal y/e. i'm looking past the next 1h,4h,1d bar. that monthly bear channel isnt looking so bearish at this very moment and there are major events in the near future can change the way you are looking at historical indicators.
Fair enough... You're bearish the Euro but you're hedging the risk. Fully understood. I could have sworn you were trying to make a case for a Bullish Euro. I see now you were playing devil's advocate.

As for the bearish channel not looking so bearish, I have to disagree.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-w1.gif Size: 37 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #55,523
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:05am Sep 20, 2012 7:05am
My guess, for the very little that its worth, is that the euro will be above 1.3070, probably higher, by the end of friday or earlier. The remainder of todays and fridays trading will leave us wondering whether the bull is back or the bear is simply napping for a bit, after the soon to arrive rally. Reports will be manipulated, numbers will be fudged, an election is coming this way.
  • #55,524
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:11am Sep 20, 2012 7:11am
Quoting PipTrapper
Fair enough... You're bearish the Euro but you're hedging the risk. Fully understood. I could have sworn you were trying to make a case for a Bullish Euro. I see now you were playing devil's advocate.

As for the bearish channel not looking so bearish, I have to disagree.

Attachment
my point is simply that there is large topside risk at this point in time. back out to the monthly and take a peak at history since 2006. ill post up a chart this evening, i cant while on vpn
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #55,525
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:15am Sep 20, 2012 7:15am
PT do you think we will see another up then back down like yesterday or just down down down?
  • #55,526
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:16am Sep 20, 2012 7:16am
Quoting godrich
My guess, for the very little that its worth, is that the euro will be above 1.3070, probably higher, by the end of friday or earlier. The remainder of todays and fridays trading will leave us wondering whether the bull is back or the bear is simply napping for a bit, after the soon to arrive rally. Reports will be manipulated, numbers will be fudged, an election is coming this way.
Makes perfect sense.
  • #55,527
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:19am Sep 20, 2012 7:19am
Quoting TRMZXT
PT do you think we will see another up then back down like yesterday or just down down down?
I think there's a good chance we will retest the down trend line which is currently around 1.3000/10 area. However, that all depends on the US data this afternoon.

In 10 minutes we get the US Jobless claims data and then later we get US Mfg PMI and Philly Fed Index. Once this data is out, then it is up to Mr. Market to decide is he is happy or disappointed. Even if we get good data, don't underestimate the bad data we got today out of China, Japan and the EuroZone.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #55,528
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:20am Sep 20, 2012 7:20am
good resistance for a up to test 1.3-1.325 area and then back down again. Seems the market is chopping down but with built up momentum for short.
  • #55,529
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:22am Sep 20, 2012 7:22am
Quoting TRMZXT
PT do you think we will see another up then back down like yesterday or just down down down?
I think 1.2900 won't let it just go through it, must bounce at least
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 233 KB
  • #55,530
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:23am Sep 20, 2012 7:23am
Quoting PipTrapper
I think there's a good chance we will retest the down trend line which is currently around 1.3000/10 area. However, that all depends on the US data this afternoon.

In 10 minutes we get the US Jobless claims data and then later we get US Mfg PMI and Philly Fed Index. Once this data is out, then it is up to Mr. Market to decide is he is happy or disappointed. Even if we get good data, don't underestimate the bad data we got today out of China, Japan and the EuroZone.
I think the market likes to make money and nothing better than up to retest 50 pips or so and then newer low. IT is all about the money.
  • #55,531
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:27am Sep 20, 2012 7:27am
Quoting mka_78
I think 1.2900 won't let it just go through it, must bounce at least
yep... which is why the markey usually like to back off a bit and then make a run at resistance. Which is why no matter the news I think it will go up and test whatever level and then try and break 1.29 but then again who knows.
  • #55,532
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:32am Sep 20, 2012 7:32am
bad report... good reason to take it up to drop it later. Up we go...
  • #55,533
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:32am Sep 20, 2012 7:32am
Bad data no impact

The money is going into gold so no impact to E/U but boost E/U.
  • #55,534
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:35am Sep 20, 2012 7:35am
Quoting Ken A
Bad data no impact
Didn't you hear? Good data = up. Bad data = up LOL

Seriously though. New York and Chicago floor traders aren't up and running yet. One more hour will be the true test.
For now it is only futures trading in America.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #55,535
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:37am Sep 20, 2012 7:37am
Quoting PipTrapper
Didn't you hear? Good data = up. Bad data = up LOL

Seriously though. New York and Chicago floor traders aren't up and running yet. One more hour will be the true test.
For now it is only futures trading in America.
gold moving up .. may give hints to eu
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #55,536
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:41am Sep 20, 2012 7:41am
Risk-off so far. Mfg PMI and Philly Fed Index will give more clarity.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #55,537
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:43am Sep 20, 2012 7:43am
Gold back down a bit and USDX up. What are they seeing in paper gold.
  • #55,538
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:45am Sep 20, 2012 7:45am
market maybe going to resistance then running up.
  • #55,539
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:46am Sep 20, 2012 7:46am
getting some USD buying pre NY open. Front running NY should be dollar positive.
  • #55,540
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:46am Sep 20, 2012 7:46am
Quoting TRMZXT
market maybe going to resistance then running up.
You mean support... right?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
210 traders viewing now