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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #31,461
  • Sep 19, 2012 10:27am Sep 19, 2012 10:27am
Unfortunatly all my 4 longs in range 78.30 -78.60 , was closed at least BE+1
Ignored that it failed to go far higher then 79.15 wich wasimportant level in my tec analysis. Lessons learned
  • #31,462
  • Sep 19, 2012 1:01pm Sep 19, 2012 1:01pm
add few longs 78.3 lets see
  • #31,463
  • Sep 19, 2012 2:58pm Sep 19, 2012 2:58pm
Down up what the THF

thought we would see some more action

sitting on a long 78.300

another one further up

Grass hopper needs to send his bitchs out on a shopping spree
  • #31,464
  • Sep 19, 2012 4:27pm Sep 19, 2012 4:27pm
- I think that prices isn't right and it will correct itself. (this view based on no fundamental analysis for U/J)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Dollar Yen Prices.png Size: 24 KB
  • #31,465
  • Sep 20, 2012 12:06am Sep 20, 2012 12:06am
hey BOJ, wake up, soon nobody can buy your products
  • #31,466
  • Sep 20, 2012 12:23am Sep 20, 2012 12:23am
Hi

Back from work

Stop hunting big time

Would like to go long again

but it keeps creeping lower

I will just have to sit it out
  • #31,467
  • Sep 20, 2012 12:28am Sep 20, 2012 12:28am
Quoting Fidza
Yep I am officially confused as to the driving forces behind this pair, good job I closed my long almost at today's high,bad job that I went long again at 78.60
lol ur not only1.
im long 79.05(OFC small lot 0,03) - 78.45 ( 0,04) addin more while we go deeper.
It cant last long..lets see what data we goin to get from US today-if positive then we goin up high.
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #31,468
  • Sep 20, 2012 12:42am Sep 20, 2012 12:42am
Gidday Traders

Usual just enter a small long lower down,come back in a few days.
Bingo money in the bank
Today is different,EUR/US doing a sell off,below 13000

Any body know anything

If EUR goes up then we might see some moves up
  • #31,469
  • Edited 2:07am Sep 20, 2012 1:47am | Edited 2:07am
Normally, I don't believe in any conspiracy theories, but this time, after looking at the charts, and taking into consideration yesterday decision of BOJ, I would say, someone is trying to provoke them to do an intervention. Every other central bank decision, concerning QE, send the currency lower, but not yen- it is gaining hard on this decision .

Now to be serious, probably big fishes wished for more drastic monetary easing, and BOJ decision was disappointing for them. Or they hoped for a peg of some kind, and now, as Yen is still safe haven for hedge funds they are like “Ok, no problem, you don’t want to take decide action against your currency, we love that, we will still buy yen and sleep happy in the night!”.

Form the technical point of view, there was no real reason for such a strong fall at this area, and also at yen index to rise, so again, this pair is driven by news and strange speculative attacks . I will play along, added long at 78.10, SL at 77.75.

And seriously, i am starting to belive, that the only rescue for Japanies is to set a peg, like the Swiss did, otherwise they won't be able to weaken their currency, but i also know, that it will be really hard, and nearly imposible fo them to do that...
  • #31,470
  • Sep 20, 2012 3:54am Sep 20, 2012 3:54am
Quoting Haqu
Normally, I don't believe in any conspiracy theories, but this time, after looking at the charts, and taking into consideration yesterday decision of BOJ, I would say, someone is trying to provoke them to do an intervention. Every other central bank decision, concerning QE, send the currency lower, but not yen- it is gaining hard on this decision .

Now to be serious, probably big fishes wished for more drastic monetary easing, and BOJ decision was disappointing for them. Or they hoped for a peg of some kind, and now, as Yen is still safe...
Totaly agree (add more longs) which level do you think its the "secret" peg for Japs? around 75? i can wait many months to see 82-83 again, cause i feel safe BOJ defend 75 area
  • #31,471
  • Sep 20, 2012 4:22am Sep 20, 2012 4:22am
Quoting heraclitus
Totaly agree (add more longs) which level do you think its the "secret" peg for Japs? around 75? i can wait many months to see 82-83 again, cause i feel safe BOJ defend 75 area
First level, more of less officially said they will try to make a defense around is 77.50 surrounding. The next is between 75-76.

I believe that now after the market is toying with them, acting completely in different way they would want after announcing easing, they will be more willing to show that they need to be taken serious and “can take decisive action” and more willing to do an intervention.
But still, last week candle and staying above level 78.00 is still bullish for me, so lets wait and see
  • #31,472
  • Sep 20, 2012 5:02am Sep 20, 2012 5:02am
Hello

The US/JPY

Thought they did not want a strong Yen

What about a nice spike up
  • #31,473
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:10am Sep 20, 2012 7:10am
Quoting Haqu
First level, more of less officially said they will try to make a defense around is 77.50 surrounding. The next is between 75-76.

I believe that now after the market is toying with them, acting completely in different way they would want after announcing easing, they will be more willing to show that they need to be taken serious and “can take decisive action” and more willing to do an intervention.
But still, last week candle and staying above level 78.00 is still bullish for me, so lets wait and see ...
Yep, can't go below 75, (76,8-77 more possible) except japs want to do "seppuku" suicide to their economy. Patience always pays. Marry christmas to all longs on profits
  • #31,474
  • Sep 20, 2012 7:47am Sep 20, 2012 7:47am
I have been following the Yen for quite a while now... I do also think they will defend 77.50-60 area to start with... they will probably push it 200 pips or so up. I am waiting for the price to hit 77.65 to go long with a view to take profit at 79.60. I think at 79.60 the powers that be will want to push as hard as they can to REALLY test the resolve of BoJ to defend the currency.

My view is that from 79.60 area we will see the faithful drop to 75.70-75.80 range... at which point BoJ will slap the powers that be so hard... it will leave a permanent scar on their balance sheet

Just wanted to share how I am looking at it medium term...
  • #31,475
  • Sep 20, 2012 10:19am Sep 20, 2012 10:19am
Quoting Haqu
Normally, I don't believe in any conspiracy theories, but this time, after looking at the charts, and taking into consideration yesterday decision of BOJ, I would say, someone is trying to provoke them to do an intervention. Every other central bank decision, concerning QE, send the currency lower, but not yen- it is gaining hard on this decision .

Now to be serious, probably big fishes wished for more drastic monetary easing, and BOJ decision was disappointing for them. Or they hoped for a peg of some kind, and now, as Yen is still safe...
thats why u dont intervene in ur currency market always wants a paycheck
  • #31,476
  • Edited 6:00pm Sep 20, 2012 3:02pm | Edited 6:00pm
The Chinese government is well known for currency manipulation, Maybe they are the ones behind the Yen upward movement. they try to put pressure on Japan for the Island dispute.

For me, I will, like everyone here, will not close my position on the Yen pair. I checked my chart on the Weekly and daily time frame for Eur/JPY and I figured out that we touched a 50% fibonnacci level. It was the hight of the week

i will not add other position tho, but i will keep them open
Alternatives are more important than the plan itself
  • #31,477
  • Sep 21, 2012 12:56am Sep 21, 2012 12:56am
Moody's warning about the US debt rating downgrade is probably not helping.

Here's my chart :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj21.jpg Size: 91 KB
  • #31,478
  • Sep 21, 2012 1:15am Sep 21, 2012 1:15am
Hi

What do you think

I see its been held up above 78000

keeps dropping down

anybody shorting this pair
  • #31,479
  • Sep 21, 2012 6:39am Sep 21, 2012 6:39am
Quoting eliteincome
Hi

What do you think

I see its been held up above 78000

keeps dropping down

anybody shorting this pair
I personally wouldn't short the Yen until AFTER the BOJ Minutes of Aug. 8-9 are released before Tokyo opening next week...
  • #31,480
  • Sep 21, 2012 11:03am Sep 21, 2012 11:03am
U/J seems to found support around 78.15 and resistance above 78.35. Need to wait and see in which direction it will go from this consolidation.
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