EurAnalysis

[quote=rekon67;6027178] Its diesel < 5 inr we pay highest in the world . and opposing FDI in multi brand retail . bharath bandh by bjp against congress . but its okay

[quote=prashant7;6027192] All crap. What is your take on E/U today?

This is certainly not looking good. Expect more actions against US. Don't know what. Will see.

Down I have these two numbers since E/U just broke the Daily support 1.2960, 1.2820

knocked me out for a very small loss(-3)

It's not very far away. If panics followed by London it could go lower than that.

The only good thing from all of this is for my U/CAD longs.

Good Morning Everyone...

http://www.pipmavens.com/beginning-o...netary-system/

Risk Off Now with Dow down 30 (Futures) Yen 98.10 and Europe Futures Down...

China in the Red ... Ten Year Note 1.75% ... Gold $1762 US

Snippet:

On Thursday, September 13 2012, we’ve witnessed what I believe to be the beginning of the end, of our existing monetary system.

For those who haven’t heard about it, I’m referring to the Federal Reserve’s announcement to continuously print U.S. Dollars, starting with $40 billion each month with no end in sight.

This is game-changer that will dramatically change the quality of our lives in the coming years, both within and outside of the United States.
Why Is This Important News?

Viewed on its own, this development may seem like just another one of the many attempts of the Fed to stimulate the U.S. economy.

But when viewed in context of everything else that has happened in the past 3 years, it’s likely that the world economy has begun its final countdown to disaster.

This is a bold statement, I know.
But I’d like you to consider holding back your judgement until you see the facts I’m about to show you.
“Nahh… it can’t be that bad…”

Actually, it might be worse than you think.


This announcement by the World’s most influential organization signals two things:

1. The Federal Reserve is out of ideas to solve the dismal employment situation, and is desperate
2. The Federal Reserve is no longer concerned about keeping inflation low

Let’s take a closer look at these issues.

1. Fed is out of ideas to solve the job crisis, and is desperate
To truly understand what’s happening here, we’ll have to look at the current situation in the context of what happened in the past.
Here are the dates and amounts of the Fed’s previous attempts at quantitative easing:

QE1
Dec ’08: $600 billion

Mar ’09: Additional $750 billion + $300 billion Treasuries



QE2

Nov ’10 to Jun ’11: $600 billion, at a rate of $75 billion per month


Operation Twist


Sep ’11 – Buy $400 billion long term bonds, funded by selling short term bonds


Jun ’12 – Extension by another $267 billion

Let’s take a look at how the U.S. economy is doing, since the introduction of QE1.

Productivity & Trade
(higher is better)


Besides the ineffectiveness of QE2 and Operation Twist, I have a more boots-on-the-ground perspective as to why QE3 won’t work:
The money that the Fed injects into the economy won’t reach the public (i.e. the average American)

The basic idea behind any type of quantitative easing, is that the money eventually makes its way from the banks and financial institutions into the hands of the public. With more cash, the public buys more goods and services, enabling companies to make profits and grow by hiring more employees. That’s how its “supposed to work”.

In reality however, practically none of that money will ever reach the average U.S. consumer.

Living in Asia, I’ve seen first hand how Western funds have increasingly flowed to the East. The rich in the Western hemisphere are no longer investing in their home country – they are moving their funds to Asia.

I’ve witnessed how increasing foreign investment from the West have pushed housing prices in Singapore to more than double in the past 10 years. This is a trend that has no sign of slowing down.

Look all around Asia and you’ll see rising prices in basic necessities, as well as luxury goods. This is largely caused by increased consumer demand, and inflation.
http://www.pipmavens.com/wp-content/...ian-assets.png
And therein lies the fallacy behind the assumption behind QE3: that the first people who get access to the QE funds (i.e. banks and other financial institutions) will in turn spend and invest that money in the U.S.
It just isn’t happening. And it isn’t going to happen. That’s the reality of the situation.

Good morning folks.

It's going to be a very interesting day today as the market starts positioning itself for a few risk events that may decide which side of 1.30 this pair to going in the short to medium term.

Last night the risk off sentiment got rolling along after China's HSBC manufacturing PMI number again come in weaker than expected and Japan's economic report showed yet another monthly drop in exports.

Today we have the following significant events.

1. Eurozone Manufacturing and Services PMI numbers

2. Spanish 3 and 10 year bond auctions

3. US Jobless claims report

4. US Manufacturing PMI numbers

5. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

The Eurozone PMI numbers from last month have already been slightly revised downwards and the expectation for this month is for them to stabilize at current levels.

The big one for Europe today is the Spanish bond auction. The results are due out at 08:30 GMT and they will be looking to raise between €3.4bln and €4.5bln in new 3.75% Oct 2015 (3 Yr) and 5.85% Jan 2022 (10 Yr) bonds. I suspect the auction will be well received with good yields and that will further delay any request for aid from Spain keeping the ECB's OMT program on the shelf again.

As for the US Jobless claims number, I don't see it as a big market mover unless the headline number is under 350K or over 400K. The current 4 week moving average is 375K, so a number below that would be encouraging for the US economy, but like I said, unless it is below 350K (or above 400K), I don't expect much movement on it.

The US Manufacturing PMI and Philly Fed Index generate quite predictable results. A good number is risk positive and a bad number is risk negative. However, the way they sway the market today may have more to do with what happens in Europe and whether or not the US jobless claims numbers are within or outside the range. Obviously this is something we will have to wait and see.

From a technical perspective, the pair seems to be in a topping process. Others may see a bull flag formation and they may be absolutely correct. However, I believe that this bull run from the 1.2041 lows is way overextended after 1150 pips without a significant correction. Furthermore, all the good news is now out and there is nothing more than can excite the markets at this level. Any upside from here will be nothing more than a knee jerk reaction to some US negative or EZ positive news and will likely be faded quickly.

Good luck today and remember to buckle up. It's gonna be a bit bumpy today.

E/U Weekly

U/CAD Inverse H/S confirmed with neckline break

Targeting 0.9910/20 to complete the pattern.

U/CAD H1

I have the 2972 area as older support, today's MS 2 pivot and a 61.8 fibo, also +ve divergence on the 15 min and lower TFs, so I bought some there......now I'd like a Higher Low to buy some more.....

PS GM PT

Maybe when USDX @ 80.50 ?

Hard to say. The U/CAD does not seem to be correlated to anything lately.

Today’s orderboard

Written by Pete Jackson
September 20, 2012 at 06:42 GMT

EUR/USD: Bids/tech support hourly downward trend channel support 1.2950/60, and bids 1.2900/20. Offers 1.3030/50

GBP/USD: Bids 1.6185/95 and 1.6145/55 with sell stops below. Offers 1.6225/35 and 1.6280/00 (barrier 1.6300), buy stops above.

EUR/GBP: Bids 0.8015/20 (0.8017 Wed low) and 80.00/05, sell stops below ahead 0.8065/70 ( 100 day MA at 0.7967, Sep 11 low) and bids 0.7950/55. Offers 0.8040/45 and 0.8095/00 , buy stops above ahead of tech res (Friday high 0.8114)

USD/JPY: Bids 77.95/05 (semi official) sell stops through 77.90 below ahead of more larger bids 77.50/70. Offers 78.30/40, 78.80/90, 79.10/25 with buy stops above through cloud base 79.27

EUR/JPY: Bids 101.40/50 and 101.00/10, sell stops below. Tech res 101.77 (200 day MA). Offers 101.90/00 possible buy stops above and through 102.40 (o/n high).

AUD/JPY: Bids 81.00/10 likely sell stops below ahead of tech supp 80.63 (100 day MA). Offers now from 81.70 up to 82.00 (81.70-55 day MA, 200 day MA 81.92), Buy stops through 82.00

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0350/60 ahead of 200 day MA at 1.0331. Offers 1.0425/35 and 1.0475/95 buy stops through 1.0500

EUR/AUD: Bids 1.2450/60 ahead of 200 day MA at 1.2415. Offers 1.2515/25 and 1.2565/75 ahead of stronger 1.2590/00 (possible barrier).

Today’s option expiries

Written by Pete Jackson
September 20, 2012 at 04:43 GMT

For the 1000NY/1400GMT cut

EUR/USD: 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.3935, 1.2965,

USD/JPY: 77.75, 78.00, 78.45, 78.75, 79.00

EUR/JPY: 100.70

GBP/USD: 1.6200

EUR/GBP: 0.8030, 0.8035

AUD/USD: 1.0415, 1.0445, 1.0475, 1.0500, 1.0600

Finaly! I was becoming UCad hater.. I See intermediate stops at roundabouts of 9810 (few fibs there) and 9840/35 (descending retracement of D1 channel)
And if this hour closes above 9792 then above resistances should be reached in no time..

[quote=rekon67;6027196] We may just see a test of 1.31 levels by ny session . but can't predict the exact low for today . this week EU is breathing i would say ,for the 1100 pips rally ( mainly from 1.25 to 1.32 .)

Ya I see it too... the frankie isnt really bouncing it too hard off that area...

holding short from the break of 1.3... potentially seeing the 2960 and 2937 coming if we get a push with london....

Frankie having difficult time faking upwards

Clearly Risk-Off this morning

You are right. You are ahead of everyone yesterday. I didn't see it coming.

This whole China-Japan-Korea is a puzzle, don't know what to believe from the media unlike EZ is more of an open book.