I'm not a "Businessman" I'm a "Business-man"!! Jay-Z
- #694,663
- Sep 19, 2012 10:36am Sep 19, 2012 10:36am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Add one to the list. M15 regular bearish divergence
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #694,664
- Sep 19, 2012 10:37am Sep 19, 2012 10:37am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Mar 2009 | 16,693 Posts
Attila....believe it or not, I watch your posts intently, as I feel your style of trading is applicable for essentially anything from Scalping to Long Term. But the one thing I get confused about is how you keep track of the various levels. You typically post from one timeframe, but I suspect you must be using multiple frames to get your levels.....is it at this point that your using TL's to mark them on the lower charts, or are you still using your flowchart with mental stops?
Anyway, the levels are only guides, I am not using them for trading, sometimes they are good for targets.. but I always watch what the price does around there. Many times the price crosses them and then fakes it back and continue in the original direction, but if for example it crosses a level and then immediately forms a reversal pattern just below it I start paying attention for a reversal to the next level (s/r) up... That being said, I mostly watch the fast chart for PA.. Look at how the price moved around 3025 there without aim and then it started going down with a nice short PA.. Then it stopped and attacked 3025 again strongly.. Why? Then it moved up and, it's all described on the chart.. The upper level of that mini range there corresponds with a mini top to the left not visible here... Then there are the market times.. LSE closed now, so I would be very cautious about going long even if the PA says so...
So it's not one thing, one line on the chart that makes or breaks a trader.. I think what really does break a lot of them is having a strong bias one way or another, and this forum is pretty bad when it comes to that because once you put it in writing in front of people to see, you kinda get married with that opinion.. and that's not good..
You have to continuously ask questions, look for anomalies and be ready to change your bias on a moment notice..
So again to answer your question, levels are there just for guidance, sometimes they are right sometimes they are not.. What makes all the difference is to always judge the PA and try to cut your losses short and let your winners run. As simple as this sounds, it's the hardest part of it all...
Edit: 3025 was from h4, but I do have intermediate levels from lower TFs as well...
- #694,665
- Sep 19, 2012 10:38am Sep 19, 2012 10:38am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Sniper | 14,770 Posts
- #694,667
- Sep 19, 2012 10:39am Sep 19, 2012 10:39am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 13,260 Posts
Short from 65
TP ummmm if I am that lucky I had better keep an eye on it
TP ummmm if I am that lucky I had better keep an eye on it
- #694,668
- Sep 19, 2012 10:39am Sep 19, 2012 10:39am
- | Joined Jun 2012 | Status: Cogito ergo $um | 1,519 Posts
- #694,669
- Sep 19, 2012 10:46am Sep 19, 2012 10:46am
- Joined Jul 2012 | Status: CME seat owner | 6,134 Posts
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
- #694,670
- Sep 19, 2012 10:46am Sep 19, 2012 10:46am
- | Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Suffering from Casandra syndrome | 1,384 Posts
- #694,672
- Sep 19, 2012 10:50am Sep 19, 2012 10:50am
- Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,013 Posts
- #694,674
- Sep 19, 2012 10:54am Sep 19, 2012 10:54am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 17,796 Posts
COT: The precious data ignored
- #694,675
- Sep 19, 2012 10:54am Sep 19, 2012 10:54am
- | Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Suffering from Casandra syndrome | 1,384 Posts
- #694,677
- Sep 19, 2012 11:00am Sep 19, 2012 11:00am
- Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Minor crosses. Major pips. | 3,701 Posts
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
- #694,678
- Sep 19, 2012 11:02am Sep 19, 2012 11:02am
- Joined Jul 2012 | Status: CME seat owner | 6,134 Posts
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
- #694,679
- Sep 19, 2012 11:04am Sep 19, 2012 11:04am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
This is some work I used to do for Fibs. Its not a typical set up, but yet, seems to hold some water when used. Based on 'this ' work, 1.2599 should be a complete retrace.
But, I abandoned this (and all fib work in general).
These are using the Monthly fibs, applied on the weekly and daily charts.
I might someday revisit Fibs - I would expect that they *should * be relevant, since its in everything in nature, but I for one cannot seem to nail it down.
Here is my fibo study on the weekly chart. As you can see we have a confluence of 3 fibos right now
- Orange Fibo is at 38.2% of 2011 high to 2012 low
- Yellow Fibo is at 50% of October 2011 high to 2012 low.
- Green Fibo is 78.6% of 2012 high to 2012 low
I confirm additional resistance via my MacD showing a bearish hidden divergence and also an overbought RSX index.
Furthermore, I have an old trend line (red-dashed) offering additional resistance.
Note that on a weekly chart, I always use the candle close (ignore the wicks) to determine if a level is toasted or not.
It's not rocket science and it is certainly not a 100% sure thing, but if the rest of the market is seeing it also, then I have to believe that the rest of the market will most likely trade it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
