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  • #694,381
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:06am Sep 19, 2012 6:06am
Do you think EUR/US will be bear today? Will it finish below 1300?
  • #694,382
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:07am Sep 19, 2012 6:07am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Why is that your ultimate target? What's a few hundred pips on a yearly position trade? Do you feel that is its true value?

What if the market feels its true value is higher?

I mean no offensive whatsoever here but have you ever heard the saying dont trade against the FED?

It's a losing proposition Time for shorts was when there was very little stimulus (last 2011, and i know you shorted it big time, but my point is that the short is no longer there).

Unless you think Euros will go down, USD will go down, and metals will fly to the...

The monthly doesnt look bottomed out to me
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Month.jpg Size: 62 KB
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  • #694,383
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:08am Sep 19, 2012 6:08am


Sorry guys, I could not resist it.
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #694,384
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:08am Sep 19, 2012 6:08am
yeah... H4 bearish divergence all over the place.. pretty much impossible at this point for it not to have divergence

cant believe i didn't try to short at all when i took profit @ 80
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #694,385
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:09am Sep 19, 2012 6:09am
looks like GS have been sellers above here


EURO-DOLLAR: Seeing a lot of reference to a Goldman Sachsnote that has
announced it has cut its long rec position, entered into at $1.2153.
They say that with much of the expected developments now past us, our
initial target of $1.30 reached and a period of further consolidation
possible, we consider it prudent to close our recommendation for a
potential gain of about 7%. Rate currently trades around $1.3007, off
recently posted lows at $1.3003.
  • #694,386
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:11am Sep 19, 2012 6:11am
Quoting Pegasus54
The monthly doesnt look bottomed out to me
No , but she is going towards the upper channel line.
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #694,387
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:11am Sep 19, 2012 6:11am
174 pips down this week. hmmm. trend change begins???
ok. now need to see what will be bullish pullback. if the maksimum will be 3100 then IT IS THE BEARISH START !!!
  • #694,388
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:12am Sep 19, 2012 6:12am
trend is sooo heavy
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #694,389
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:12am Sep 19, 2012 6:12am
now its clear no 1.38 this year. LOL
  • #694,390
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:12am Sep 19, 2012 6:12am
Once again ... should've shorted EUR/JPY rather than EUR/USD.
  • #694,391
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:13am Sep 19, 2012 6:13am
but how quicklly the market changes. LOL
  • #694,392
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:16am Sep 19, 2012 6:16am
Quoting kibescorp
Once again ... should've shorted EUR/JPY rather than EUR/USD.
this is a great pair i will start trading more especially now that spreads are better
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #694,393
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:16am Sep 19, 2012 6:16am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
trend is sooo heavy
Sorry you had a profit in your hand of more than 12 pips against a strong trend.

You were brave to get in.......
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #694,394
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:17am Sep 19, 2012 6:17am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Why is that your ultimate target? What's a few hundred pips on a yearly position trade? Do you feel that is its true value?

What if the market feels its true value is higher?

I mean no offensive whatsoever here but have you ever heard the saying dont trade against the FED?

It's a losing proposition Time for shorts was when there was very little stimulus (last 2011, and i know you shorted it big time, but my point is that the short is no longer there).

Unless you think Euros will go down, USD will go down, and metals will fly to the...
The Euro is far from bottoming out. The structural problems in Europe will take many years to correct. Furthermore, Europe is in a mild recession and a higher Euro will make it worse. On top of that, Germany is the only EZ economy that is keeping the GDP supported, and with China in trouble, Germany's exports are already starting to take a big hit.

Yes I've heard of the saying "Never fight the Fed" and I am not fighting the Fed at all. My E/U shorts do not go against the Fed. They go in line with the ECB's and the EC's impotence.

The Fed can print as many dollars as it wants and flood the markets with more liquidity than the market knows what to do with, and in the end, capital will still fly out of the EuroZone both in the good times and especially in the bad.

When fund managers and hedge funds and pension funds seek yield, they don't seek it in Junky EZ bonds... they seek it in high rated securities such as US equity markets, emerging markets, and sovereign debt instruments with a credit rating above AA. The only ones buying EZ sovereign debt are the EZ banks which are doing so only because the ECB has lowered the standards for collateral.

Banks outside the EZ do not have that privilege. If Bank of America were to try and use Spanish, Portuguese or Italian bonds as collateral at one of the the Fed banks in the US, they would be shown the door very quickly.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #694,395
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:19am Sep 19, 2012 6:19am
time to buy 3008 TP 3048 40pips profit.
  • #694,396
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:21am Sep 19, 2012 6:21am
Does anyone think we will still go lower now that its bounced up from 1.3??
  • #694,397
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:21am Sep 19, 2012 6:21am
You just need deep pocket if you want to buy eurusd today.
It was bought on every lows from 1,3015 til now, maybe 1,3000 was the key for a move up...at least until we reach 1,3040 then we'll see.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #694,398
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:24am Sep 19, 2012 6:24am
heavy 1.30 long with four, M5 bullish divergences makes up for missing that short
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #694,399
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:25am Sep 19, 2012 6:25am
Quoting kuroro001
You just need deep pocket if you want to buy eurusd today.
It was bought on every lows from 1,3015 til now, maybe 1,3000 was the key for a move up...at least until we reach 1,3040 then we'll see.
Not need to buy it today, today is a short day.
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #694,400
  • Sep 19, 2012 6:26am Sep 19, 2012 6:26am
Quoting Mike8
No , but she is going towards the upper channel line.
Monthly tested the gann......weekly tested the 78.6 and contained bearish hidden divergence. Technically speaking, its likely the weekly gann or even the monthly lower TL may be tested before the upper monthly TL. Now...with that being said, a weekly close above the 78.6 then the upper monthly upper TL is likely.
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