EurAnalysis

EMU DATA:
- EMU July construction output -0.3% m/m, -4.7% y/y
– EMU June construction output rev down -0.6% m/m (-0.5%)
– EMU July avg const output -0.6% vs 2q, 2q rev -0.4% q/q (-0.1%)
– EMU 3m/3m avg const output (May-July vs April-June) -0.2%
– EMU July structural const -0.8% m/m; civil engineering +1.1% m/m

Overall a sign of continued weakness in the EuroZone construction industry.

Spain applying for a bailout whether full or "light" would probably come out as pretty bullish though, initially anyway, as it would trigger Draghi's wet dream OMT's

What is your phrase again: Bulls make money, bears make money but pigs get slaughtered ?

Now it is Bears time to shine again

Well looks like the 3072 area held firm...

My stops were hit ensuring small profits from my long positions....

Im expecting the market to channel here between the 1.3 and 1.3033

I am still buying with low risk until we close below the 1.3.... at which point Ill start selling rallys back towards the 1.3 and playing breakouts short...

R:R from here still favors longs IMHO(But ONLY with a proper PA setup)

GL guys

Wulf

Daily Forex Brief

London: Wednesday 19th September 2012

Less convincing

The first half of this week has been another fine example of that old trading adage which implores risk managers to 'buy the rumour and sell the fact'. In this instance, the rumour and fact are the recent steps by both the ECB and the Fed to engage in additional and unconstrained balance sheet-expansion. How much further this corrective price action extends is obviously the burning question. In coming weeks, more monetary firepower will be unleashed by the major central banks, with the BoJ committing to further asset purchases overnight, China is likely to ease further and the BoE potentially implementing more QE this side of Christmas. As such, after a decent few weeks for risk assets and currencies, some consolidation and profit-taking was to be expected. For the single currency, the pull-back has been relatively minor, which could well imply that there is serious buying interest just below. As we have been implying recently, there are a lot of potential forced buyers of euros around at present, which implies that any pullbacks will be shallow. Much the same can be said for equities, where investors are also structurally short – if central banks are making it clear that they will print money until the economy delivers sustainable growth, it is as though they are putting a floor under the market. Quite simply, if the economy is weak and jobs growth stalls, then the central banks will keep the printing presses running. Interestingly, the favourite high-beta currency for many traders, the Aussie, has given back some ground over recent days (see below).
http://webr.emv2.com/fxpro/fxpro-newDB.gifhttp://webr.emv2.com/fxpro/daily-briefDB.gifhttp://webr.emv2.com/fxpro/marketnewsDB.gifhttp://www.fxpro.com/sites/default/f...perf%2024h.png

Waiting for it.

T

Daily Report: Yen Dives after BoJ Added Stimulus

Yen was steeply sold off in Asian session today as BoJ announced to double the size of its asset purchase program. USD/JPY took out an important near term resistance level at 79.03 which confirms completion of recent fall from 84.17 and confirmed the underlying bullish outlook. EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY also strengthened, in particular, with GBP/JPY jumping through 128 level today. Yesterday's pullback in EUR/GBP helped sterling outperformed Euro. But the relative strength could very much depends on today's BoE minutes. Nonetheless we'd continue to expect European major currencies to outperform commodity currencies in near term. Meanwhile, yen would underperform dollar and would be the weakest one.

The BOJ accelerated the pace of monetary easing by doubling the size of asset purchases, in addition to leaving the uncollateralized overnight call rate at around 0 to 0.1%. Slowdown in global economic growth and recent tensions between China and Japan over territorial dispute are expected to delay Japan's recovery as exports growth would be affected. According to the central bank, the move is expected to 'help ensure that Japan's economy resumes a sustainable growth path with price stability'. The move came in earlier than market expectations, sending Japanese yen lower, and Nikkei stock index and cash bonds higher. More in BOJ Speeds Up Easing, Expands Asset Purchases After ECB And FED.

Some Fed officials offered their view on monetary policy after Fed's open-ended QE3 announcement last week. New York Fed President Dudley stated that the Fed's new measures aimed to speed up the recovery of the employment market and whether the QE3 would be extended beyond year-end will depend on "whether we have seen a substantial improvement in the labor market outlook in the interim and any further evidence about the costs and benefits of continuing such purchases". He added that a decline in unemployment rate with a drop of participation rate would not qualify as an improvement. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Evans, the known dove, said US needs a "more resilient economy" and hinted the bond purchase program would likely extend after this year as he did not expect to see sufficient improvement by year-end.

On the other hand, Richmond Fed Lacker said that monetary policy alone is "unable to offset all of the ways in which various frictions impede the economy's adjustment to various shocks." Lacker was the only dissenter at this month's meeting on reason that more stimulus "runs the risk of rasing inflation".

On the data front, New Zealand current account deficit came in larger than expected at NZD -1.797b in Q2. Australia Westpac leading indicator rose 0.4% mom in July. BoE minutes will be the major feature in European session together with Swiss ZEW expectations. From US, new residential construction and existing home sales will be released.


http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120919174631/

i have pending longs between 1.3010-1.2997 TP @1.3042


going out, laters

Hey guys, hope everyone is well and making green pips all over, for now with the printing money coming from every CB in the world this is what makes the market move and we the little guys can do our best to ride the coat tails and make money

So, i have a long position which is 1/3 of my original state still opened from 1.2680 and i also have a short position (full) from 1.3150 on the dot. Im not too sure where i should close my long or just leave it and put a SL at 1.29/50

For my Short i will leave it till we reach 1.2950 and will take 2/3 of profit, of course if i see bullishness creeping in anytime today a valid break of 1.3050 i will close the position and look to see how i re-enter at a later time long or short.

So for me i see us ranging a little bit more, i think market will carve out a low today and give us some insight where the low of the range will be, for me the high is 1.3165 ish and the low ????, possibly 1.2950

Unless we break the high or the low i will be trading the range (possibly a 200 pip range or more) but with much smaller positions, i have almost covered my loss on my shorts that i had and therefore almost at BE

My goal is to be balanced within the end of this week and with market willing back i profits for the month next week so i can take that and leverage my profits only in October. Almost there!

GBP just broke consolidation range and if H1 closes without wick it may drag EUR past that 1,3000...

Fib retrace (23.6)to 1.2750/35 area is how I play for now, scalping now between here (1.30) and there..beyond that I cautiously like the move to 1.2590, but that may act as support and bounce...if forced to choose the move beyond that for purposes of the poll then I'd choose 1.25 before 1.35..but that would only be on an overshoot. So put me in the "I'll pick 1.25 but would feel more comfortable move down to the 1.2590 (50% Fib retrace) range".

-0,5% on that h1 break. Shouldnt enter at start of zone. Anyway, we have just entered monthly ressistance zone 3009 - 2957. In my charts very important and I think we should hold on weekly.

T

IMO - without any major new news I see a pull back to the support area around the June Highs i.e. a 38% pull back before another leg up towards this years high - thus with the potential of hitting the 3500 level - based on the US Presenditial Election in November and all of the manipulation involved.....

Yeah perhaps I should have noted that I am not looking for exact levels. If price makes it to 1.2590, I'll still consider it a 1.25 before 1.35

i think neither

My interest point in the short term is around 2900. It has fibs, daily POC and, most importantly, a rising weekly trendline (depending how you draw it, it could also be in the 2800s) that was broken to the upside and now waits to get retested. PT also had that line, i think it was a red one.

On the fundamental side, sure, nothing has changed but it really is about the hopium delivery. What is Spain gonna do and how does the Greece situation gets evolved in the short term?

Historically, the OFFICIAL QE announcment day has been a climax point for the dollar decline and a decent size retracement were due. It makes sense too, cause, as of today there is no market conviction that there ever will be a QE INFINITY. That is not Bernanke's idea. The idea is to get the average american (and markets) fooled on the back of the infinity IDEA alone. If the FED has to engage in a year+ QE then it becomes increasingly clear that the QE3 doesn't work. That itself is Bernanke's worst nightmare.

What is interesting that it's not really about the CONFIDENCE that every FED member seems to push for but rather they desperately try to FORCE people to participate in another spending boom/housing bubble type of pyramid scheme so that the "wealth" of one person is determined by the loan another person takes. It has nothing to do with REAL economic growth and all of it will again collapse later on. It's the simplest form of artificially induced economic ACTIVITY (not growth).

Coming back to the market conviction about the QE3 being infinitive and all then this type of conviction starts to grow in around dec, jan. This is key point. What is the econ data leading into new year and more importantly, how does the FED react to that? It's their reaction to the econ data that can be devastating to the dollar.

If the data is OK (montly payrolls around 150k) but the FED says it's not enough then the dollar will tank again.

But from now till december i see a period of consolidation and no clear trend (without fundamental catalysts from the eurozone that is).

Long story short - if U.S. data is good then there's no reason to think there'll be QE infinity. If the data is bad then all the fiscal cliff fears will escalate and we could see a decent risk off.



my 5 cents (since the 2 cents has lost its value thanks to Central Banks).

take care.

1.25 first thanks! not gonna give my 2,3,4 or 5 cents times are hard!

Well yesterday I asked if between 1.300-25 before the news what would be you opinion with Good Bad or mixed news. I think really good news we will touch 1.2960 areas possibly. Bad news we will def hit the London high and possibly range and make a stab at the 1.315 area. Mixed.... I hope not but if it is mixed signal we probably range unless it was like yesterday. Good news meant nothing for the Euro and it still went down. Any thoughts?

nice post lumesh,

BOJ delivered and Japan says thanks but no thanks to a stronger Yen.

Has confidence in money printing diminished. If that line of defence ever breeches it is all over for equities. So will it, becomes the pressing question.

1.3000 has to be heavily supported for if it goes and major support at 1.2950 yields there is no going back. Confidence will burst and so will the Euro. Consequently am expecting another run uptown based upon every CB has now some form or other of QE in progress. Computer programs have not been changed and China will keep using its currency reserves to shore up Europe.

The only thing is we did not get any follow thru from the BOJ liquidity pronouncement. But then again the US markets are not online yet and the USD bears will today have the opportunity to beat on the dollar once again. The Dollar bears have everything they want so now if they do not act then risk sentiment is making the shift towards the opposite of what the CB's have decreed.

We have the USDX approaching resistance at 79.50 with a downtrending 200sma on the hourly just above it.

Where it will all go depends upon who is willing to put their money where. So since I do not know the answer to that, if 1.2950 lets loose I heavily short. Otherwise will scalp shorts if the Euro goes up to that magical number 1.3080 and above.

also it is worth watching the GBP because that has been the darling of the love affair between QE and the markets. It looks weak today, might just be the sniffles but maybe the beginning of the flu.

BOJ just announced easing few hours ago then money flows to bonds + risk-off seeing USDX gains from 79.00 to 79.34.

Have no idea if it will first go to 1.35 or 1.25. Needs few days in Risk-On to see how things are heading.

Not sure when to close the longs

it is usually easier to retrace than stomp new ground usuallly unless you have motivation which is why markets range more than trend but trend is relative to time frame you are looking at. So tech I would say 1.25 BUT I think who is elected could change that if stuck in range land until then. So I will go with 1.25