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  • #3,361
  • Sep 18, 2012 7:53am Sep 18, 2012 7:53am
Quoting matk
101.00 is the SR level potential FTB trade

any thoughts

m
I don't trade FTB's on the daily TF, what I do mainly is either look for immediate retests (something to discuss another time) or search for VLTF RBR's / where key decisions were made by price to move higher and essentially breakout above the SR.

This seems to be what you've done here and as such it is something I'd be looking for PA off on the return to this area. It's a bit far away for me to analyse in great detail right now, but I'll run through it if/when price gets nearer.
  • #3,362
  • Sep 18, 2012 7:54am Sep 18, 2012 7:54am
Quoting nonethewisa
I have it a little higher on 1.0396 on the M5

Perhaps both are valid and maybe LJ could confirm?
Yes, I would be looking more around this area. I'll annotate a chart later.
  • #3,363
  • Sep 18, 2012 8:12am Sep 18, 2012 8:12am
Extremely busy day today in the markets, 4 trades, 4 winners.

Had to have some patience with some of them and was made to work hard for these %R gains but they all add up in the end.

Firstly, GAUD - we've been through the setup and the decision points already, now the actual trade.

The FLS and the 2nd target should be relatively clear. You can see from the M5 that I readjusted the 2nd target into a wider demand zone and it's where where I took profit for a +1.06R gain.
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  • #3,364
  • Sep 18, 2012 8:23am Sep 18, 2012 8:23am
Quoting lovejoy80
This is the actual setup on ACAD. Not a pair I'd be risking the house on but worth a position IMO.
Second trade , ACAD FTB long based on the RBR. Now of course this is correlated to the GAUD setup in that they are both bullish AUD setups. I also had a limit order in for the AU SR FTB long at the time.

My ideal scenario is to take all 3 but with a cap on the correlated risk because you never know which one will work out the best at the time so I find it best to split the risk between all three.

The fact that there are multiple setups on the same currency indicating the same thing (i.e. bullish AUD) is a good sign, so I would bear this in mind when deciding on the correlated exposure cap.

But in this instance the orders were in place from last night and I didn't have time to cancel, re-calculate and re-enter the orders so instead it was on a first come first serve basis with the last one being cancelled (namely AU) which didn't trigger anyway.

Although I am firmly a believer in bearing in mind correlated risk exposure, I am also minded that a) I win a lot more setups than I lose and b) multiple setups across the same currency occurring at once is a positive sign and c) I'm in this business to make money first and foremost - so I don't agree with being ultra fussy with risk exposures to the nth degree which I've seen people do in the past.

Back to the trade - the setup is pretty obvious and as per a previous post price reacted at the highlighted decision point within the zone.

My FLR was the 75 region, I watched price closely and targeting the next supply zone @ 85 for a +1.29R win.
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  • #3,365
  • Sep 18, 2012 8:56am Sep 18, 2012 8:56am
Trade 3 - EURSEK - just happened to see this when browsing my H1, H4 charts - clear strong H4 reaction from a supply zone. Entered at market with SL above a logical area price shouldn't cross - the strong reaction suggested price should pretty much just move down.

Close the trade manually when it came close to my TP and moved away. +2.35R
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  • #3,366
  • Sep 18, 2012 8:58am Sep 18, 2012 8:58am
Lastly, EURNOK - same type of setup, daily supply and price showed strong rejection on H1 which was also a bull trap of the previous highs.

FLS was technically very close but given the daily supply, the bull trap and the strength of the rejection I considered that this area should get broken. Again closed manually for +1.95R
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  • #3,367
  • Sep 18, 2012 9:21am Sep 18, 2012 9:21am
Quoting lovejoy80
Going back to GAUD and decision points generally now I've got a little more time, look where GAUD reacted (before and after on M1).

Same with ACAD setup (after is top right).
Hi L J

Just missed this one by the spread, price hit my tp I had done my own assessment where the decision price point was, I feel T am getting there got the U/Jpy within pips, once again thanks for the the detailed explanation's you provide.


m
Constant and never ending improvement
  • #3,368
  • Sep 18, 2012 9:21am Sep 18, 2012 9:21am
Quoting mrhb30jr
hi guys,

any comment and advise....
USDHUF .... on 1hr tf

thxs
You seem to have bought right into former demand turned supply.

Price had a nice breakout of that lower zone, but you've entered far too high IMO. I would have been looking for a breakout +immediate retest +rejection out of that lower range or the FTB setup (which hasn't occurred yet).

Not a pair I've ever traded though and I much prefer more liquid pairs for FTBs.
  • #3,369
  • Sep 18, 2012 9:29am Sep 18, 2012 9:29am
Quoting lovejoy80
Yes, I would be looking more around this area. I'll annotate a chart later.
This is my M5 view of the H1 SR FTB setup on AU.

The top decision level is the bar high to the immediate left on H1 - not something that was respected on the breakout, but can't completely dismiss it.

It is this RBR that IMO lead to the breakout of the SR.
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  • #3,370
  • Edited 2:01pm Sep 18, 2012 10:31am | Edited 2:01pm
LJ , I have a minor request ... When you do a new video or some charts , Please also do it about what you look for when you are finding good setups based on SNR FTB ... What characteristics do you look for in the SNR that seems trade worthy ... In previous few days , I learned two things ... Immediate retest does not count as FTB and spikes invalidated the SNR effective ... Who knows how much I dont know yet ...

FTB for tomorrow ???
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Human
  • #3,371
  • Sep 18, 2012 10:47am Sep 18, 2012 10:47am
what do u guys think about this 4 h flag ., is it a good rbr ?
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  • #3,372
  • Sep 18, 2012 3:19pm Sep 18, 2012 3:19pm
Quoting extremerrage
what do u guys think about this 4 h flag ., is it a good rbr ?
I don't think this is quite well defined enough for me to trade off. There are clearer pattern formations out there than this one.

What is your buy order for?
  • #3,373
  • Sep 18, 2012 3:34pm Sep 18, 2012 3:34pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Extremely busy day today in the markets, 4 trades, 4 winners.
Who is showing off now

x3 trades: x1 loss (gold FTB to S), x2 winners (DAX, FB into D) 15m, USDCAD FB 15m. First loss after several successive trades, possibly even 10+. Either way, they always leave a bitter taste.
  • #3,374
  • Sep 18, 2012 11:56pm Sep 18, 2012 11:56pm
Quoting Chanya
LJ , I have a minor request ... When you do a new video or some charts , Please also do it about what you look for when you are finding good setups based on SNR FTB ... What characteristics do you look for in the SNR that seems trade worthy ... In previous few days , I learned two things ... Immediate retest does not count as FTB and spikes invalidated the SNR effective ... Who knows how much I dont know yet ...

FTB for tomorrow ???
It looks ok, would prefer more space between the breakout and the return though from a value / FLS perspective. I watch that much and I am always more cautious on the crosses when it comes to FTB's.

I will be going over the SR FTB shortly (1-2 weeks).
  • #3,375
  • Sep 19, 2012 1:33am Sep 19, 2012 1:33am
Couple of FTB's that triggered overnight during Asia as examples.
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  • #3,376
  • Sep 19, 2012 2:17am Sep 19, 2012 2:17am
Quiet morning relative to yesterday, nothing really on the near-by radar so time for some VLTF (M5, M15 TF) action. Simple RBR + SR FTB on Gold for +1.05R
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  • #3,377
  • Sep 19, 2012 2:19am Sep 19, 2012 2:19am
I have opened a micro $250 live account ( Other then the actual live account of mine ) to practice the teachings of LJ ... I cannot take Demo seriously anymore ...

I just took a loss on NZD USD with a BO and FTB trade ... LJ , when you have time , guide me where I went wrong ...
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Human
  • #3,378
  • Sep 19, 2012 2:30am Sep 19, 2012 2:30am
Quoting Chanya
I have opened a micro $250 live account ( Other then the actual live account of mine ) to practice the teachings of LJ ... I cannot take Demo seriously anymore ...

I just took a loss on NZD USD with a BO and FTB trade ... LJ , when you have time , guide me where I went wrong ...
With an FTB you need a bigger 'arc' than that - we want price to move away, create an arc like pattern before returning. The example below is typical of what to look for.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,379
  • Sep 19, 2012 2:35am Sep 19, 2012 2:35am
Quoting lovejoy80
With an FTB you need a bigger 'arc' than that - we want price to move away, create an arc like pattern before returning. The example below is typical of what to look for.
So

1 ) We must have a bigger arc
2 ) SR should be clear and preferably strong
3 ) No spike should have violated it

That is all or still something missing ?

I know , Not looking for something Rule Based ... Just clarifying the basics brother ...
Human
  • #3,380
  • Sep 19, 2012 2:35am Sep 19, 2012 2:35am
Quoting Chanya
I have opened a micro $250 live account ( Other then the actual live account of mine ) to practice the teachings of LJ ... I cannot take Demo seriously anymore ...

I just took a loss on NZD USD with a BO and FTB trade ... LJ , when you have time , guide me where I went wrong ...
losses inevitable.In my experience immediate Brkout aren't that reliable..esp. if we trade on those lower TF..
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