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  • #694,001
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:15pm Sep 18, 2012 1:15pm
Something worth looking at. While eurusd is sliding, chfjpy (risk) is not moving and may actually want to head up.

Let's see how strong are the bidders around 1,3020-25
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #694,002
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:16pm Sep 18, 2012 1:16pm
Quoting heraclitus
we will see 1,31 again next 24 hours, be careful with shorts
or we might never see 1.31 again in the near time ...
making money is easy in forex, losing money is even easier...
  • #694,003
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:17pm Sep 18, 2012 1:17pm
Quoting tirmizi

only the break of 3030/31 will open the door for 2888/90,

but i dont know if we get some kind of bounce around or at 3030/31, and if we do get a bounce below 3030 then retrace towards 3080/90 is norm b4 continuing down towards 2888

GL
now the question is are we in a bounce mode? towards 3080/90 or we going towards 3005 for any bounce or straight towards 2888

who knows???
Learning Requires Failure
  • #694,004
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:20pm Sep 18, 2012 1:20pm
Quoting gugun555
or we might never see 1.31 again in the near time ...
I was just thinkin the same thing... from comments on various forums, everybody and his dog (ie: the stupid money) is tryin to fade this thing; and that's not to mention nervous nelly longs taking money off the table.

What is your reasoning on this?
  • #694,005
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:25pm Sep 18, 2012 1:25pm
Quoting RWalker
I was just thinkin the same thing... from comments on various forums, everybody and his dog is tryin to fade this thing; and that's not to mention nervous nelly longs taking money of the table.

What is your reasoning on this?
It's not totally off the table, anything is possible

But what I see on my charts may not be what you see on yours.
I'll pick up the crumbs don't need the whole pie
  • #694,006
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:25pm Sep 18, 2012 1:25pm
Quoting RWalker
What is the reasoning behind that?
without no significant news, H4 never lie
  • #694,007
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:28pm Sep 18, 2012 1:28pm
I think it's too risky to try to go long now. Good EUR news is now depleted so I don't expect any higher highs for the moment but who knows... EURUSD has surprised me by its strength in the past few days so I'm very cautious.

*edit: double top also looks promising. Hope it follows (read: falls) through.
  • #694,008
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:30pm Sep 18, 2012 1:30pm
Quoting Quickiepip
It's not totally off the table, anything is possible

But what I see on my charts may not be what you see on yours.
Quoting heraclitus
without no significant news, H4 never lie
Sometimes logic and flows trump charts: I believe the combination of fading and profit taking is hard to argue with... sometimes charts DO lie.
  • #694,009
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:30pm Sep 18, 2012 1:30pm
First long taken with stop below 1,3000
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #694,010
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:34pm Sep 18, 2012 1:34pm
Quoting kuroro001
First long taken with stop below 1,3000
...having a certain amount of respect for your opinion, I am curious: why are taking a long and on what TF?
  • #694,011
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:34pm Sep 18, 2012 1:34pm
Quoting RWalker
Sometimes logic and flows trump charts: I believe the combination of fading and profit taking is hard to argue with... sometimes charts DO lie.
This is true... If you look at every little line on your chart you would never place an order.
I'll pick up the crumbs don't need the whole pie
  • #694,012
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:39pm Sep 18, 2012 1:39pm
Quoting Quickiepip
This is true... If you look at every little line on your chart you would never place an order.
Ah yes...but when you say "H4" you are talking candles, not lines; and sometimes they tell BIG lies.


PS: the more I read here, the more I believe this thing is goin down and down some more!
  • #694,013
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:42pm Sep 18, 2012 1:42pm
my suspicion is this that we might not bounce till 2888, we might have a minor bounce at 3005/07

another suspicion is this that tonight when BOJ bank of japan intervene we might see 400/600 pips rise in usd/jpy
Learning Requires Failure
  • #694,014
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:43pm Sep 18, 2012 1:43pm
Quoting RWalker
...having a certain amount of respect for your opinion, I am curious: why are taking a long and on what TF?
Hey!

I'm taking a long based on my 5mn chart and because it's inside an important demand area (1,3020-35).
I see it's going down with vol (it can last i know) but by looking at m1/m5 vol, buyers are lurking around.

Plus the fact chfjpy is kicking ass made me take that trade.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #694,015
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:44pm Sep 18, 2012 1:44pm
Hello room,
think it's time to enter cadjpy long. could be explosive. chart posted in the cadjpy thread.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #694,016
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:46pm Sep 18, 2012 1:46pm
Quoting RWalker
...having a certain amount of respect for your opinion, I am curious: why are taking a long and on what TF?
why everybody believes QE3 effect ends on friday on 1,316? Bernanke said. " Interest rates would stay at "exceptionally low levels" until at least the middle of 2015, and that policy would only be tightened when economic recovery was well established" So if europe save the south countries (looks like) fundamentals is against dollar at least the end of this year
  • #694,017
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:48pm Sep 18, 2012 1:48pm
Quoting Ultimate6
Watch USD/CHF around 9297 for rejection and then EU top to break.
now lets see if we have a little something like that.
  • #694,018
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:49pm Sep 18, 2012 1:49pm
My View Of EURUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 18-09-2012 19-46-46.jpg Size: 261 KB
  • #694,019
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:52pm Sep 18, 2012 1:52pm
Quoting kuroro001
Hey!

I'm taking a long based on my 5mn chart and because it's inside an important demand area (1,3020-35).
I see it's going down with vol (it can last i know) but by looking at m1/m5 vol, buyers are lurking around.

Plus the fact chfjpy is kicking ass made me take that trade.
It's something I hardly ever pay attention to but by "vol", you are referring to some synthetic volume measure? ...to VSA (Volume Spread Analysis)?
  • #694,020
  • Sep 18, 2012 1:56pm Sep 18, 2012 1:56pm
Quoting heraclitus
why everybody believes QE3 effect ends on friday on 1,316? Bernanke said. " Interest rates would stay at "exceptionally low levels" until at least the middle of 2015, and that policy would only be tightened when economic recovery was well established" So if europe save the south countries (looks like) fundamentals is against dollar at least the end of this year
I agree that BB is a very, very sad man... a very foolish man who will do his utmost to trash our currency in the course of keeping our current administration in office.

But, look at his competition: HvR. Draghi. Rajoy. ...and a cast of thousands of money-printing can kickers! These Europeans are no pikers, and they should be given a certain amount of respect for their ability to out-do America when it comes to trashing themselves.

I am at the moment waiting for the next shoe to drop in Europe.
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