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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #55,201
  • Sep 18, 2012 2:52am Sep 18, 2012 2:52am
Quoting rekon67
KEN, What are the points you opened Long and Holding?
To make pips and I don't want to build shorts up to 1.3500 to realize that I have made a mistake.
  • #55,202
  • Sep 18, 2012 2:56am Sep 18, 2012 2:56am
Quoting wingou
F*** I took a short @1.3163, made a wrong manip and get out :/ It looks like I will regret this one...

Finaly I really regret this wrong manip :/
  • #55,203
  • Sep 18, 2012 2:58am Sep 18, 2012 2:58am
Quoting wingou
Finaly I really regret this wrong manip :/
Can you 'undo'?
  • #55,204
  • Sep 18, 2012 3:01am Sep 18, 2012 3:01am
Quoting Ken A
Can you 'undo'?
Lol nope, set my SL @1.3162 instead of 1.3172 and get out of the market :/
  • #55,205
  • Sep 18, 2012 3:08am Sep 18, 2012 3:08am
Quoting wingou
Lol nope, set my SL @1.3162 instead of 1.3172 and get out of the market :/
Stingy.

Don't date a girl working in a bank.
  • #55,206
  • Sep 18, 2012 3:16am Sep 18, 2012 3:16am
Quoting Ken A
To make pips and I don't want to build shorts up to 1.3500 to realize that I have made a mistake.
Why? Ok I will ask later.
  • #55,207
  • Sep 18, 2012 3:18am Sep 18, 2012 3:18am
Quoting rekon67
Why? Ok I will ask later.
Accounts balancing.
  • #55,208
  • Sep 18, 2012 3:21am Sep 18, 2012 3:21am
Quoting Ken A
Accounts balancing.
Careful though all I can say
  • #55,209
  • Sep 18, 2012 3:24am Sep 18, 2012 3:24am
Quoting rekon67
Careful though all I can say
I should've closed all @ 1.3170 yesterday, if I knew it'd be 1.3050 today.
  • #55,210
  • Edited 3:44am Sep 18, 2012 3:32am | Edited 3:44am
good morning,
EURO/USD breeched support at 1.3080
N25Jap closed lower
Futsee-100 & DAXX decidely weak
AUD/USD now at support of 1.04

Risk sentiment is being affected by the China/Japan dispute without question. The world must be asking what is going on that China's Government took the road it did. It had the option of forging ahead with international law bodies, filing complaints and arguing the case for possession. That it choose public display and confrontation indicates a power shift in Bejing is emerging.
China is a country with authoritarian rule, what the press reports comes from what the leaders want the people of China to know.

Would venture leadership is saying to the world, China is not your whiping boy and it resents being called a manipulator. It also says that National interests will be upheld over international interests. The recent public statements by China's highest military appearances would say that there is a power shift in Bejing and the need for natural resources under China's control is not satiated.

My read on Japan is that they have a stronger claim to the disputed Islands. There exists international law and this may be settled using the Law. Title disputes are resolved peacably in court. Going to court will put this issue in the cooler as the legal approach takes time to make a judgement.

If this dispute goes to court then the markets will calm down and go back to following the crisis DuJour.

If China choses more public display over Court, then world trade will be negatively affected and in a big way.

For now will continue to hold my scalp entry shorts from 1.3153 and added to at 1.3095
AUD/USD shorts from 1.0534 and 1.0516

There remains plenty of time to build into a swing position as China has the option to choose the outcome. If it chooses hard confrontation then a serious situation is in the offing. I doubt China wants to retreat within its border once again as that would entail suppression of its people and a big step backwards for China.

Europe depends upon the maintenence of global trade for debt relief, but what happens in Asia has the potential to change global trade patterns for decades if it goes wrong.
  • #55,211
  • Sep 18, 2012 3:37am Sep 18, 2012 3:37am
Quoting foto
good morning,
EURO/USD breeched support at 1.3080
N25Jap closed lower
Futsee-100 & DAXX decidely weak
AUD/USD now at support of 1.04

Risk sentiment is being affected by the China/Japan dispute without question. The world must be asking what is going on that China's Government took the road it did. It had the option of forging ahead with international law bodies, filing complaints and arguing the case for possession. That it chose public display and confrontation indicates a power shift in Bejing is emerging.
China is a country with authoritarian...
Maybe have to go back to 1930 history of Manchuria to fully understand why the 1.3 billions of people did what they did.
  • #55,212
  • Sep 18, 2012 3:52am Sep 18, 2012 3:52am
Ken
All am saying is that chain of title can be resolved in a court without military usage or trashing of private property to get ones point across.

How title gets resolved is what is important. Force of arms or people carrying suitcases. What China chooses now is using physical threat. This is a sign of weakness and internal tension inside China. An escalation in the physical and I will be aggressively adding to my positions.
  • #55,213
  • Sep 18, 2012 3:54am Sep 18, 2012 3:54am
Okay I'm back.

1.3080 was the neckline of a double top pattern 90 pips high.
So 1.3080 - 90 pips = 1.2990

Theoretically that's were we are heading. Let's see if the technicals are behaving today.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #55,214
  • Sep 18, 2012 3:56am Sep 18, 2012 3:56am
Quoting foto
Ken
All am saying is that chain of title can be resolved in a court without military usage or trashing of private property to get ones point across.

How title gets resolved is what is important. Force of arms or people carrying suitcases. What China chooses now is using physical threat. This is a sign of weakness and internal tension inside China. An escalation in the physical and I will be aggressively adding to my positions.
As an outsider I agree but this is not what the 1.3 billion people feel. The scars run deep. Need to read about Manchuria not published by propaganda machine to have a balance view
  • #55,215
  • Sep 18, 2012 4:04am Sep 18, 2012 4:04am
Ken Yes.
That is why the markets are responding in a risk off manner. Why is something that happened 80 years ago so important now? The past two decades as China emerged it was still there but not in a public way driving opinion.

So how safe is ongoing international investment within China going to be.
China has a long history of political stability followed by tremendous upheavals and gut wrenching shifts. If it is on the threshold of another power struggle then money that can will exit, and economic crisis comes to China.

Risk Off big time.

Am not making a judgement call on the merits, only upon the potential avenues of resolution and market impact.
  • #55,216
  • Sep 18, 2012 4:08am Sep 18, 2012 4:08am
Spanish bonds had an excellent take up today.
Considering the situation as it is, I give this bond auction an A+

Now what does that mean? Well it simply means that Spain is now even more in no rush to ask for aid, because the market just said that they are willing to accept lower returns to finance the beleaguered country's funding needs... at least in the short term anyway.

The real test is the next longer dated bond auctions. If they go well, then I don't see Spain requesting aid any time soon.

On Sep 20 @ 08:30 GMT, Spain will auction €3.4-4.5 bln of 3 Year and 10 Year bonds.

Mark it in your calendars.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #55,217
  • Sep 18, 2012 4:13am Sep 18, 2012 4:13am
Quoting foto
Ken Yes.
That is why the markets are responding in a risk off manner. Why is something that happened 80 years ago so important now? The past two decades as China emerged it was still there but not in a public way driving opinion.

So how safe is ongoing international investment within China going to be.
China has a long history of political stability followed by tremendous upheavals and gut wrenching shifts. If it is on the threshold of another power struggle then money that can will exit, and economic crisis comes to China.

Risk Off big...
I have lapses of recollection of what I read long time ago but nothing (war) will happen. Both of them are smart people. Japan and China have very close knitted relationship back to thousands of years ago. So as China (PRC) and Taiwan (ROC).

But the tension = risk-off.
  • #55,218
  • Sep 18, 2012 4:13am Sep 18, 2012 4:13am
Quoting foto
Ken Yes.
That is why the markets are responding in a risk off manner. Why is something that happened 80 years ago so important now? The past two decades as China emerged it was still there but not in a public way driving opinion.

So how safe is ongoing international investment within China going to be.
China has a long history of political stability followed by tremendous upheavals and gut wrenching shifts. If it is on the threshold of another power struggle then money that can will exit, and economic crisis comes to China.

Risk Off big...
Let's not forget that the market also realizes that if/when the Chinese poop hits the fan, a lot of financial fraud will undoubtedly be uncovered which will further exacerbate the resulting risk-off sentiment. In fact the reports of fraud are already emerging.

One example is this > Lenders find steel pledged as collateral missing from warehouses
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #55,219
  • Sep 18, 2012 4:25am Sep 18, 2012 4:25am
Quoting PipTrapper
Let's not forget that the market also realizes that if/when the Chinese poop hits the fan, a lot of financial fraud will undoubtedly be uncovered which will further exacerbate the resulting risk-off sentiment. In fact the reports of fraud are already emerging.

One example is this > Lenders find steel pledged as collateral missing from warehouses
perhaps this is why the AUD/USD has retraced nearly 50% whereas the Cable not at all, and the Euro only slightly thus far.........
  • #55,220
  • Sep 18, 2012 4:29am Sep 18, 2012 4:29am
Quoting PipTrapper
Let's not forget that the market also realizes that if/when the Chinese poop hits the fan, a lot of financial fraud will undoubtedly be uncovered which will further exacerbate the resulting risk-off sentiment. In fact the reports of fraud are already emerging.

One example is this > Lenders find steel pledged as collateral missing from warehouses
It happens everywhere. That's why corrupter/criminal in China punishable by death. The family will have to reimburse the bullet and cremation of RMB60 otherwise, the body will be used as medical cadaver.
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