Dislikednathan
my trade plan for now is to take some scalp entries on USD longs just to see if it was possible to buy the USD and not lose money.
Am not trading for scalp profits, but if the scalp entries are not stopped out will let them run and see if they can become swing trades.Ignored
- #55,022
- Sep 17, 2012 3:54am Sep 17, 2012 3:54am
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: That the best u can do, u pansies? | 6,087 Posts
- #55,023
- Sep 17, 2012 3:54am Sep 17, 2012 3:54am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #55,025
- Sep 17, 2012 4:00am Sep 17, 2012 4:00am
- Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Chaos is a ladder | 1,268 Posts
Don't forget the bearish hidden divergence on the weekly chart.
edit: H4 bearish engulfing completed
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
- #55,026
- Sep 17, 2012 4:00am Sep 17, 2012 4:00am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
PT/ Tom
I agree... I am seeing just a big range forming as the countries try to out devalue one another in the coming years....
we are likely going to bear witness to an all out currency war.... hold onto ur butts
http://www.ihatecellulite.com/images...n-the-butt.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #55,027
- Sep 17, 2012 4:10am Sep 17, 2012 4:10am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,522 Posts
PT/ Tom
I agree... I am seeing just a big range forming as the countries try to out devalue one another in the coming years....
we are likely going to bear witness to an all out currency war.... hold onto ur butts
AUD, CAD, JPY and the likes all bend over and take it from Bernanke.
- #55,028
- Sep 17, 2012 4:10am Sep 17, 2012 4:10am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jan 2007 | 3,555 Posts
- #55,029
- Sep 17, 2012 4:13am Sep 17, 2012 4:13am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
Lol Lumesh .
.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #55,030
- Sep 17, 2012 4:15am Sep 17, 2012 4:15am
nathan,
just trade what you believe. No one in this dart board trading environment has any real certainty.
My approach is a fishing expedition. These markets have more v bottoms and tops then is reasonable. Am controling risk exposure by staying small.
- #55,032
- Sep 17, 2012 4:22am Sep 17, 2012 4:22am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #55,033
- Sep 17, 2012 4:23am Sep 17, 2012 4:23am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jan 2007 | 3,555 Posts
- #55,034
- Sep 17, 2012 4:26am Sep 17, 2012 4:26am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,522 Posts
Good Monday morning fellow traders
I spent a considerable number of hours on the weekend looking at how to best position myself in the markets going forward. I cannot say it's been easy. Ben Bernanke's QE Infinity has certainly made minced meat of the bears that remained after Mario Draghi's ECB Bond buy plan and the German Constitutional court's decision to allow ratification of the ESM and fiscal treaties.
Looking at those 3 major risk events concluding on a market positive note, I was initially inclined to believe that market risk has significantly...
It is very difficult to change the fundamentals of a country. People in each country have grown a certain level of productivity, innovation, lazyness/working hours etc etc. and yet those are exactly what is needed to change to tackle the fundamental problems.
Until then kicking the can down the road is the way to go
And the can is kicked now. Let's see how far does it roll on that momentum.
Here are my considerations...
The Equity indices are pretty much at a 5 year high right now which was mostly helped by the front run rally we saw over the last several weeks. Since June 2012, the SP 500 index has rallied from 1265 to a high of 1475. That's an increase of approx 17% in slightly over 3 months which we are testing new highs. How can this possibly be sustainable when since the last time the SP500 was at these heights, we did not have such a macro economic mess on our hands.
Seems like stock markets don't give a damn about the econ data anymore. It IS kinda awesome to see stocks near 2007 bubbly highs with unemployment 8+% and Bernanke sounding (acting) like a recession is around the corner...Long live the QE !
- #55,037
- Sep 17, 2012 4:55am Sep 17, 2012 4:55am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
market risk diminished ? PT, you were one of the guys to use a clear sober head to determine whether we are dealing with a reality or with a fiction. Keep on that course !
It is very difficult to change the fundamentals of a country. People in each country have grown a certain level of productivity, innovation, lazyness/working hours etc etc. and yet those are exactly what is needed to change to tackle the fundamental problems.
Until then kicking the can down the road is the way to go
And the can is kicked now. Let's see how...
Perhaps diminished was the wrong word for me to use.
Yes, absolutely this is a can kicking exercise. The point of my post was that the can is too heavy to kick any more and this exercise will hardly get the can off the ground, let alone down the road.
Whilst QE Infinity puts in place an easy monetary policy required for future fiscal policies to work, the systemic risks involved in combination with a lame duck congress will ensure that the FOMC's actions were ill-timed. They should have waited until after the election. The US situation, as indicated in my daily update is just one of many risk negative factors and that alone keeps me bearish in the mid term.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #55,038
- Sep 17, 2012 4:57am Sep 17, 2012 4:57am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #55,039
- Sep 17, 2012 4:58am Sep 17, 2012 4:58am
- | Additional Username | Joined May 2012 | 1,201 Posts
market risk diminished ? PT, you were one of the guys to use a clear sober head to determine whether we are dealing with a reality or with a fiction. Keep on that course !
It is very difficult to change the fundamentals of a country. People in each country have grown a certain level of productivity, innovation, lazyness/working hours etc etc. and yet those are exactly what is needed to change to tackle the fundamental problems.
Until then kicking the can down the road is the way to go
And the can is kicked now. Let's see how far does it...
The chart above shows the effect of balance sheet expansion programs (QE) on the S&P 500 Index. While excess bank reserves are currently in excess of $1.5 Trillion it is important to remember that from 1984 to 2008 these excess reserves averaged only $19 billion.
This is why QE programs ONLY benefitWall Street. The transmission system through to the economy is broken which is why Bernanke is wrong in his assumption that it will create employment and boost the housing market.
Resetting Upside Target
With this bond buying program now in play we need to calculate what the maximum possible upside to the market, from current levels, is likely to be. It is important to put the current market environment into context with the previous Fed programs when making this assumption.
The chart below shows the market from the respective peaks, where no supporting program existed, to where the market recognized support from the Federal Reserve interventions. The chart then plots the return until May 31st of the subsequent year where the effects of the implemented programs faded.
CurrencyMan: See The Link for the charts. It is in PDF format and I cannot copy the charts.
Perhaps someone can post a chart here on SPX for the period from 2008 to present.
The most recent program was launched with the markets at year-to-date highs and sentiment extremely bullish. From this standpoint we must assume that some of the current intervention program is already priced in. Furthermore, we need to consider the diminishing rate of return that each previous program has experienced.
The most obvious target for any market advance from current levels would be the previous 2007 market highs of 1560. While this is only a 9% advance from current levels - if we consider the advance from May lows, which effectively was already pricing in the most recent intervention, it would a 22% rally. This would put the rally well within the context of previous intervention advances.
VERY IMPORTANT: It is important to notice that it was not a “one-way ticket to ride” during the previous programs. There were fairly regular pullbacks, or dips, to buy into along the way.
Another reason that I don’t expect the market to rise much further than previous market highs - is due to the current deterioration in earnings and economics. These elements are much like gravity to the markets.
This is why we apply technical analysis to determine more effectively when markets are closer to peaks or troughs. Take a look at the chart below.”
CurrencyMan:
That is $SPX Weekly...
(SPX) S&P 500 INDEX$1,465.775.78(0.40%)Options Chain Add to Portfolio
Advanced Chart
http://www.cboe.idmanagedsolutions.c...END=0&SPLITS=0
Chart Options
Comments are welcome...
- #55,040
- Sep 17, 2012 5:46am Sep 17, 2012 5:46am
- | Additional Username | Joined May 2012 | 1,201 Posts