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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #54,961
  • Sep 16, 2012 1:58pm Sep 16, 2012 1:58pm
Lagging on Oanda UK.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,962
  • Sep 16, 2012 3:27pm Sep 16, 2012 3:27pm
1.3119 ... down u mofyu
  • #54,963
  • Sep 16, 2012 3:31pm Sep 16, 2012 3:31pm
Quoting DrFixit
Hello again everyone, I stayed out of the market for most of the month of August, and the first week of September. In the early weeks of August I was frustratingly short and after being stopped out on several more trades, I decided I needed to re-examine the charts in earnest rather than see what I wanted to happen on them.

After my hiatus I came back to take a small long from around the 1.27xx level. On the weekly charts I am seeing a fairly broad possible Kilroy Bottom that started to form in January and may be forming the right shoulder in...
Your discipline will payoff, Good luck Drfixit
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #54,964
  • Sep 16, 2012 3:36pm Sep 16, 2012 3:36pm
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/09...Big+Picture%29
  • #54,965
  • Sep 16, 2012 3:39pm Sep 16, 2012 3:39pm
Quoting Ken A
If you have classified A1 information not randomly available from Google or websites but exclusive only to NSA, KGB, ...
Wtf are you still talking about Ken?

edit: Ok, I get it.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,966
  • Sep 16, 2012 4:18pm Sep 16, 2012 4:18pm
Fish prediction
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,967
  • Sep 16, 2012 4:20pm Sep 16, 2012 4:20pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Fish prediction
could use extra pips


wierd spikes atm
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #54,968
  • Edited 4:34pm Sep 16, 2012 4:33pm | Edited 4:34pm
Quoting CurrencyMan
I am now off to attend to other things. Time goes fast when you enjoy what you do. Time can be more valuable than money since that is the only thing in life we can never get enough of.
On the death bed of us all we are not wishing for more money but more time with family with friends with repair of errors we made.
Not me I am making sure as currency man the important things are done in time the others can wait.
Trading Consultants Inc JJG
  • #54,969
  • Sep 16, 2012 5:39pm Sep 16, 2012 5:39pm
Talking of Elliot and fibo. This is serious mumbo jumbo. 38% now.

T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,970
  • Edited 5:58pm Sep 16, 2012 5:44pm | Edited 5:58pm
Quoting afos
looking for a new target this week.
so i believe 1.335 is achievable.

that level was a previous high of 9/2/11 and 30/4/11

let me know what you think.

i do wonder where the retrace will go to first.. possibly fridays r2 1.3030, but we've been there already! so not so sure..


interesting stufF!
Nice chart

Agreed with you on a possible retrace level. 1.30 will be tough to crack to the downside.

Quoting pkimnyc
I wouldn't rely on long term Elliot count. Ew pattern doesn't appear all the time in the market. Just my 2c.
True. Personally, I don't even think EW needs to be in a trend to work. It can work any time.

It doesn't appear all the time but if it does appear then I think it should be taken into consideration. I don't rely on EW normally but when it comes to predicting long term (without even considering the FA), this just makes sense.

Here's how I see it. In the 1980s the USD finally peaked after the huge dollar bull. This was 0.56 EU. This was the end of the trend and beginning of new EW. Mid 90s was wave 2 profit taking, and Lehman to now was wave 4 profit taking.

I will not buck the long term trend

Of course, I would never play EU long (as a multi month-year position trade) when I could play the metals long. There's just no point because there's' no guarantee EU will move up as much nor guarantee EU will hold its gains like the metals will (and have).

Going out on a limb here with these charts I am EW noob and really never use it, but it makes sense for predicting a long term move. That and fib extensions.

There is no reason whatsoever EU can't be at 1.80. Just like many saying USD couldn't be at 80 back when it was at 150.

All it takes is Ben deciding to kill the dollar more. Any EU crises will be like a retracement, and Ben will come in and save the day again. Maybe increasing to $60 billion a month


As far as this week goes, I think it will be consolidation. Some up and down movement but nothing major.

Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Talking of Elliot and fibo. This is serious mumbo jumbo. 38% now.

T
Yeah, these fibs line up perfectly with supply levels. Very nice.
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Attached Image
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #54,971
  • Sep 16, 2012 6:04pm Sep 16, 2012 6:04pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
True. Personally, I don't even think EW needs to be in a trend to work. It can work any time.

It doesn't appear all the time but if it does appear (each up leg and retracement is similar in size) then I think it should be taken into consideration. I don't rely on EW normally but when it comes to predicting long term, this just makes sense.

Here's how I see it. In the 1980s the USD finally peaked after the huge dollar bull. This was 0.56 EU. This was the end of the trend and beginning of new EW. Mid 90s was wave 2 profit taking, and Lehman...
never try to predict the market. just take the market as is. previous count you've posted is already invalid under the basic rules of ew (w4 sould not enter price territory of w1).

p.s. common mistakes people make with ew: they usually come up with bunch of different possibilities... but the bottom line is market will only do 2 things. it's either going up or down.
  • #54,972
  • Sep 16, 2012 6:47pm Sep 16, 2012 6:47pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Nice chart

Agreed with you on a possible retrace level. 1.30 will be tough to crack to the downside.



True. Personally, I don't even think EW needs to be in a trend to work. It can work any time.

It doesn't appear all the time but if it does appear then I think it should be taken into consideration. I don't rely on EW normally but when it comes to predicting long term (without even considering the FA), this just makes sense.

Here's how I see it. In the 1980s the USD finally peaked after the huge dollar bull. This was 0.56 EU....
This was my speculation one year ago...


Quoting PipTrapper
Hi Aaron. I guess we will have to wait and see when the time comes. However, if it all plays out that way, I would say 1.78 by 2015. But that's just a very loose projection assuming the Euro will still be around as we know it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,973
  • Sep 16, 2012 7:14pm Sep 16, 2012 7:14pm
Quoting pkimnyc
never try to predict the market. just take the market as is. previous count you've posted is already invalid under the basic rules of ew (w4 sould not enter price territory of w1).

p.s. common mistakes people make with ew: they usually come up with bunch of different possibilities... but the bottom line is market will only do 2 things. it's either going up or down.
of course i'll take the price action as it is..

as for EW, it should not, doesnt meant it will not... i think it can still be valid because price action is never perfect.

but its much easier to predict the market when we have historical reference and anyone with half a brain knows the value of something goes down when there is a larger supply

i'm heavy long metals (from within 3% of the bottom of the 2012 correction). because i know USD is going down. when Ben tells me otherwise I will get out. What I posted was purely technical speculation. If fundamentals change (US improves and raises rates) or we have a massive Euro crisis then I'll sell the metals and short Euro.


anyway in short term looking its bottom here at 1.31 and going to challenge 1.3167 again.

i disagree about predicting the market. if you can do that and just wait for candles for entry (and you know the likely price target), then you have an edge.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #54,974
  • Sep 16, 2012 7:21pm Sep 16, 2012 7:21pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
of course i'll take the price action as it is..

as for EW, it should not, doesnt meant it will not... i think it can still be valid because price action is never perfect.

but its much easier to predict the market when we have historical reference and anyone with half a brain knows the value of something goes down when there is a larger supply

i'm heavy long metals (from within 3% of the bottom of the 2012 correction). because i know USD is going down. when Ben tells me otherwise I will get out. What I posted was purely technical speculation....
if it works out for you then great. while it should work as an edge, more often than not, it just creates more confusion, imo.
  • #54,975
  • Sep 16, 2012 7:25pm Sep 16, 2012 7:25pm
Quoting PipTrapper
This was my speculation one year ago...
Hmm... was it really? It was certainly possible until the EZ fail.

Really I think this 1.80 scenario would only play out if we saw QE3 continue until sometime in 2015. The thing is this time it is different, the market will price it in month by month, since each and every month Bernanke will let us know if it continues or if the economy has improved enough to reduce the $40 billion MBS or remove it entirely.

So, I would think it will be a steady grind up through the many supply levels it has to get through. With the market essentially taking profit into each months FOMC (dollar will strengthen). When no change in policy, USD continues down, EU continues up.

Volatile markets so far for Asia on a Monday.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #54,976
  • Sep 16, 2012 7:33pm Sep 16, 2012 7:33pm
Quoting pkimnyc
if it works out for you then great. while it should work as an edge, more often than not, it just creates more confusion, imo.
i mostly day/week trade so i really don't use this type of analysis that much.. only when a big trend has changed

if you are going to be trading fundamentals and multimonth-year position trades then you kind of need to be able to predict at the very least DIRECTION. not every swing in the move just simply a price target you think it is likely to reach long term. of course follow the price actiion and take advantage of retracements, etc.. (although it helps to have the levels identified where retracements will come)

well the whole point of harmonics or price action patterns is predicting future market direction with an edge

you would think that through all the books and all the years trading has been around that price patterns would no longer work, and harmonics would fail. but they work the majority of the time. that it the edge i'm referring to ;D

infact, buying or selling any security is predicting market direction. im sure you know that

its all speculation, were evil speculators doing this for profit! well some would say.

i say we are just protecting ourselves against the volatile swings of inflation and deflation (if we are properly leveraged and trading long term moves).
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #54,977
  • Sep 16, 2012 7:34pm Sep 16, 2012 7:34pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Hmm... was it really? It was certainly possible until the EZ fail. ...
I think you misunderstood. I posted the below statement one year ago as a projection for 2015 after the E/U bottoms out.

Quoting PipTrapper
Hi Aaron. I guess we will have to wait and see when the time comes. However, if it all plays out that way, I would say 1.78 by 2015. But that's just a very loose projection assuming the Euro will still be around as we know it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,978
  • Sep 16, 2012 7:36pm Sep 16, 2012 7:36pm
Quoting PipTrapper
I think you misunderstood. I posted the below statement one year ago as a projection for 2015 after the E/U bottoms out.
Oh I thought you were calling for 1.78 when EU was in 1.40s last year.

I did misunderstand or just missed that 2015 part.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #54,979
  • Sep 16, 2012 7:40pm Sep 16, 2012 7:40pm
Long EU 3111 (day trade)

need to break through 3117 to attack 30
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #54,980
  • Sep 16, 2012 7:49pm Sep 16, 2012 7:49pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Long EU 3111 (day trade)

need to break through 3117 to attack 30
Best of luck R2R. I'm hitting the sack. almost 3 am here.
Good night.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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