EurAnalysis

Is my sh!t someones debt? Nope, it is not.

Damn I am funny.

Cya later,

T

You are a gentleman and a scholar.

I am 68 years old and G-D willing I have 22 more years. My Aunt and Uncle are now 96 and 93. As a new Year begins tonight for myself I wish you good fortune and most important good health. You will always be welcome in my home and my life. It is a honor and a pleasure to have met you recently.

For myself the reward is the sharing. The appreciation is the bonus. With or without appreciation I always use my FREE WILL to complete my task.

My task in life is to change the World. However I cannot do it by myself. Only like minded people can come together with a common goal in mind.

The writings of Napolean Hill, "Think And Grow Rich" are my inspiration.

G-D Bless Us All !!!

Not many people have seen pre retail FX trading data...

Well take a look at this chart. It's certainly possible we can go straight up... look at the bull run of mid 80s and the bull run early 2000s

My eye honestly sees a move up to 1.60, then huge deflation and a massive move down to 0.825, but ONLY if we finally see FED raise interest rates or great depression.

History is on my side for the huge deflationary move (great depression)

Your S H I T is someone else's Smell if they are near you !!!

I do not think that this comment is funny although I do find it amusing. I think that I am usually funny since in Truth there is always some humor.

I never ignore your posts or stop listening to your thought. By listening we can learn what the other thinks. Then we better understand them.

Take care...

You make a lot of good points here.

However it doesn't matter that EU is fundamentally much, much weaker than the U.S.

What matters it that the U.S. is bailing Europe out, essentially exporting Euro inflation to the U.S.

As long as that continues no fundamentals will matter to the price.

Perhaps the FEDs TRUE mandate is to keep E/U in a 1.60/1.20 ceiling/floor for the all eternity!

The only thing that could stop it from going higher while 80billion monthly is created (MBS and twist) is a Lehman like scenario in Europe where everyone panics for USD.

Just look at your charts though from 2008 to now. If this is the start of the new swing like saw from QE1 and QE2, then 1.50 is not only possible, its actually extremely likely.

I start my reply to you by posting this link to the excellent chart posted here this morning...

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1347790467

There are many reasons why EUR/USD will not go in the direction of UP to 1.60

Here are some of my reasons.

(1) All fiat currencies are in a race to the bottom.

(2) Gold is in a race to the top wherever that will be.

(3) For the moment the FED has accomplished what it wanted. A chance for President Obama to be elected for four more years. Romney has already told Bernake he will be replaced.

(4) Political events ahead of us may or may not change this scenario. We will see what unfolds between now and November 6, 2012.

(5) The problems in Europe short term have not gone away and they will soon be center stage again.

(6) For the moment whenever there is Risk Off most money flows into the US Bonds. A conflict in Iran would be Risk Off and the US Dollar Index would go up and the EUR/USD down as it is 57.2% of the US Dollar Index.

(7) The Dow will NOT GO STRAIGHT UP !!! When it comes back on a correction because of bad earnings or bad NEW data we also have Risk Off and the MONEY FLOW is out of Equities into US Bonds and probably Gold and USD/JPY.

(8) After the US Election on November 6, 2012 then the FOCUS goes back to the US DEBT problem that has no solution other than cuts in expenses and the increase in taxes. Greece anyone !!!

I hope that my point of view is informative and helpful.

Good Day and Good Trading...

I am now off to attend to other things. Time goes fast when you enjoy what you do. Time can be more valuable than money since that is the only thing in life we can never get enough of.

According to your chart, Monthly price is still under the Golden MA, so it is early for the call. I would start calling it bull market if price reached 1.3400 and trade above for 3 continuous day.

Anyways I think it is good buy at 1.27-1.26 level if retrace down.

The Fed Never Learns by Mike Larson
Dear CurrencyMan
http://finance.moneyandmarkets.com/m...!-Mike_099.jpgIt’s hard to believe even the Fed is foolish enough to have done this — unleash another round of money printing, that is.

Last week’s announcement that the Fed is instituting another regime of Quantitative Easing, this time open-ended in scope and focused on buying as much as $40 billion a month in mortgage bonds, is simply breathtaking in its recklessness.
The Fed’s announcement follows hard on the heels of the news that wholesale prices in August showed the biggest increase in three years, up 1.7 percent for the month.

Now the Fed intends to add more fuel to the fire. To believe that the Fed can print money to buy anything — mortgage securities, U.S. Treasury debt, or anything else — without consequences, is to engage in magical thinking.
The Fed’s announcement is notable for two characteristics:

First, QE III is UNLIMITED money printing
— nearly a half-trillion dollars every year,
without end!

Prior rounds of QE have been of limited size and duration. Implicit in a money printing binge of fixed scope is the idea that it will be sufficient to achieve its intended purpose.

This open-ended move at least explodes the Fed’s pretense that it knows what it is doing and what its impact will be. The Fed is effectively saying that it will keep doing what has so far been utterly ineffective until something changes.

Second, it is the WORST kind
of crony capitalism!

QE III is also notable for its plan to purchase mortgage securities instead of Treasuries.

The Fed may have realized that increasing its footprint in the Treasury market could have a negative impact on the market’s functioning.
The Zero Hedge website has shared the comments of Michael Schumacher of UBS in this regard:

The Fed already owns all but $650 billion of 10- to 30-year Treasuries. “Taking out, say, $300 billion in long-end Treasuries,” says Schumacher, “almost certainly would put tremendous pressure on liquidity in that market... Plowing ahead with a large, fixed size QE program could cause liquidity to tank.”

Perhaps that explains the decision NOT to use those 40 billion newly counterfeited dollars to buy treasuries each month.
But what could possibly explain the Fed’s decision to blow all that money on mortgage-backed securities?

The answer should make any red-blooded American fighting mad: This is the worst kind of crony capitalism.
In effect, bankers at the Fed are handing a windfall worth hundreds of billions of dollars to their fellow bankers ...
Dropping helicopters full of money onto the industry from whence they came and to which they will one day return.
It is, quite simply, the most stinging outrage of our time.

And while the Fed is taking money printing
into the stratosphere,
what’s going on back here on Earth?

Meanwhile, where “We the people” live, prices are going up rapidly.



ABC News told the story this week of major consumer brands selling smaller packages of goods at old prices to conceal price increases:

1. The new package of coffee looks exactly like the old one that made 270 cups, but the new package now makes only 240 cups ...
2. The roll of paper towels is 4½ feet shorter ...
3. There are 52 fewer nuts in Planters Deluxe Mixed Nuts, and 48 fewer chocolate chips in Ghirardelli chocolate chips ...

All at the same price of the larger packages.

This is a phenomena that became familiar during the stagflation of the 1970s, something that I call “the incredible shrinking candy bar.”
It is one of the ways the people pay for these splurges of money printing: Smaller product sizes and very often deteriorating quality to conceal higher costs.

But if the consumer pays, who benefits?
The Wall Street-Banking Complex; that’s who!

There is a reason the Fed’s announcement quickly goosed the Dow up a couple of hundred points.

It is monetary policy of, by, and for the paper money aristocracy.
It is one more reason why America’s sick, corrupt “crony-nomic” system is speeding towards a fiscal cliff.

And it is why I produced my new video — The Great Default — and why it is absolutely imperative that you view it immediately.



In this extensively documented video, I show you why so many leading authorities are saying this crisis is threatening to ...

1. Tear trillions of dollars out of the hands of U.S. consumers and companies ...
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4. Leave the U.S. stock market a smoking ruin.
5. Plus, I reveal ...

6. 1. Why this will dwarf every financial catastrophe the world has ever seen and explain why it is now all but inevitable ...
   2. The giant banks and popular stocks that are most likely to crash and burn as this event explodes into the headlines ...
   3. Name the special types of investments that are most likely to skyrocket in value as this crisis unfolds ...
   4. Give you six free survival manuals designed to help you defend what’s yours — and even grow your wealth as this modern-day catastrophe unfolds.
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   And although this crisis will not wait for you, me or anybody else ... you can get all the critical information you need to prepare right now — for FREE!

7. 
   This video is absolutely free to view — just turn up your computer speakers and click this link to begin preparing NOW!
8. 
   Best wishes,
   Mike Larson

P.S. CurrencyMan: The information here is excellent information and it is all free of charge. The video is also good although I will not watch it because of a lack of time. I just want to point out that this is a commercial site and they have product to sell. I only posted the link here because of the good information. I just wanted to make that clear. Thank You !!!

but currency man there are situation one have lot of time and dont know what to do,for example immediately after taking a position and then price move in ur favour for a bit and then stall and at that precise moment one feel like u have time in excess.lol and that time one feel like one has huge vaccum.

That might lessen your concern and allow you to make profits. Please let me know...

And now before I move to other things perhaps this copy and paste, no link, will be helpful...

Welcome to the third issue of Pfennig and PfriendsSM weekly, our new addition to the Daily Pfennig newsletter.

In the inaugural Pfennig and Pfriends, Frank Trotter wrote about several of the factors we consider while evaluating currencies. He pointed out several of the fundamental factors which should drive a currencies value in the long run.

For this week's Pfennig and Pfriends, I will take a look at a few of the macroeconomic events which are currently impacting the value of currencies:

1. Euro crisis
2. Global debt accumulation
3. Central bank policies
4. Fiscal cliff – US elections

Euro Crisis
The most obvious place to start is with a look at the European sovereign debt crisis which has been the major currency event of 2012. The debt crisis has sent the euro on a three year roller coaster ride, beginning with the downgrade of Greek debt in December of 2009. Since this first downgrade, the euro has lost 20% (Dec '09 – Jun '10) gained back 21% (Jun '10 – May '11) and then lost 17.5% again (May '11 – Aug '12) vs. the US$. The future of the euro is still in question, but Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank, has pledged to do 'all he can' to insure the single currency survives. Draghi's comments seem to have calmed the markets for now, and the euro has been able to begin to appreciate vs. the US$, sending the roller coaster back up the hill. Unfortunately I have to think euro investors are in for another ride, as the sovereign debt crisis is still far from being over.

Historical currency exchange rateshttp://www.dailypfennig.com/wp-conte...hange-Rate.png Source: EverBank.com

Not only has the crisis hurt the value of the euro, but it has led to an increase in the values of currencies seen as 'safe havens' or 'liquidity shelters' such as the US dollar and Japanese yen. Investors have sought shelter in the most liquid investment vehicle available, the US Treasury note. The tremendous volume of cash placed into these treasuries pushed interest rates on the 10 year US Treasury note to all time lows of 1.388% in July of this year. Chuck has been warning Pfennig readers of what he sees as a bubble in the US Treasury market, and it is hard to disagree that there is really only one way for interest rates to go from here (they certainly can't get much lower!).

http://www.dailypfennig.com/wp-conte...2/09/DGS10.png Source: StLouisFed.org

Global Debt Accumulation
Another macro event that has slowly been unfolding is the accumulation of debt in the global economy. Surprisingly, debt has accumulated at a faster pace in the developed nations than in the developing world. Investors have more confidence in larger, developed economies and therefore these economies, including Japan and the US, have been able to issue and sell record amounts of bonds. The common currency of the euro also helped hasten the accumulation of debt, as countries such as Greece, Spain, and Italy were able to issue bonds at much lower rates due to the 'implied' backing of Germany and France. And debt accumulation isn't just a problem at the sovereign level. Consumer debt has also risen dramatically in recent years.

This accumulation of debt is a burden on the global economy. Debt-ridden consumers have less available cash to spend, placing a drag on their country's economy. Governments who have built up huge debt obligations have to funnel more and more of their available resources to servicing this debt, making less money available for infrastructure projects and social welfare designed to help their citizens through tough times.

Both of the first two mentioned macroeconomic events are related, as the Euro debt crisis was caused in part by the accumulation of debt by the peripheral countries of the EU. And the third macroeconomic event that we will discuss is also at least partially related to the first two. In reaction to the recent debt crisis and the resulting global slowdown, central banks have instituted policies that may eventually prove to be misguided.

Both the US and European central banks have instituted quantitative easing policies placing unprecedented amounts of liquidity into the markets. The Fed purchased $2.3 trillion (with a T) of mortgage and Treasury debt from 2008 to 2011 in the first two rounds of QE. The ECB has bought about 220 billion euros ($268 billion) of European government debt since May of 2010, and announced it will engage in 'unlimited' bond buying if it is asked for help from distressed members. The big difference in these two programs is that the ECB's purchases have been 'sterilized' with the bank taking the cash back out of the markets as deposits to keep from stoking inflation.

Central bank policies
Central banks, bowing to pressure from the leaders of the countries they represent, have also instituted other policies as a result of the global slowdown. The financial leaders in countries as diverse as Switzerland and Brazil have instituted policies designed to keep the value of their currencies down. Lower currency values have a stimulative effect on economies, as the lower currency rates make goods and services produced in a country cheaper in the global markets. But there always seem to be unintended consequences from policies designed to 'fight' the free market. We have to consider what impact these central bank policies will have on the currencies in both the short and longer terms. The short-term answer is easy as the lower levels will be maintained in the currency markets. But over the medium and longer terms, these policies could actually have an opposite effect with currencies and interest rates springing back to their true market levels.

Fiscal cliff – US elections
The final macro event that will continue to dominate the markets through the end of the year is the U.S. Presidential elections and the 'fiscal cliff' that awaits our country in the first quarter of 2013. We won't try to predict who will win the elections here in the U.S., and wouldn't pretend we could if we wanted to. But we instead have to consider what possible impact a change in leadership in Washington D.C. would bring to the currency markets. We also have to be aware of the austerity measures that will be forced into place in the U.S. if our congress doesn't agree on other budget cuts. The good news is that cuts are coming, one way or the other. But again we need to measure what these cuts will mean on the future growth prospects of the U.S. and more importantly, their impact on the global markets.

As an investor, what can you do?
It is certainly interesting times for traders in the currency markets. So how can investors profit from these macroeconomic events? We aren't fans of trying to predict the future, nor of trying to 'time' markets. Neither, in our opinion, gives investors anything better than a 50/50 chance to come out with a positive return. Instead, we continue to tell investors to use the power of diversification to spread the risk while still reaping the rewards. That is not to say you can ignore the macroeconomic issues which we face.

For example, investors are currently shying away from the euro and they are also avoiding any currencies tied to the euro. I personally would avoid those counties that have amassed record amounts of debt (Japan, the United States, and the weaker members of the EU have some of the highest debt/GDP levels).

And finally, no matter who wins in the coming US elections, the new administration is going to be faced with some very difficult decisions. Unfortunately almost every one of the possible scenarios leads toward the devaluing of the US$. So to protect your wealth, you should look at a ways to move a portion of your money out of the dollar and into a well-diversified portfolio of currencies (and metals!).

Sincerely,
Chris Gaffney
SVP & Director of Sales
EverBank World Markets, a division of EverBank

http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-eur...es-to-bankers/

Good Day and Good Reading...

Snippet:

As expected, the Court caved. On September 12, headlines reported it. The Financial Times said “German politicians declared the road clear for the creation of the eurozone’s (500 billion euro) rescue fund after the country’s constitutional court rejected a petition to block it.”At issue is does it matter? More on that below.Two Eurozone rescue schemes exist. The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) is running out of funds. Germany’s High Court approved the European Stability Mechanism (ESM).


Originally it was scheduled to take effect July 1. Germany’s parliament was still debating it. Constitutional Court approval is required.

It could have linked passage to constitutional law change. Doing so would have required Germany’s first post-war national referendum. It stopped short and approved what lacks legitimacy, and in the end won’t work.

On the one hand, countries are running out of resources. On the other, the ECB has few bullets left. Everything it tried so far failed. Constitutional approval changes nothing.

With it came conditions. The Financial Times said those imposed appear less onerous than feared. The Court ruled Germany’s maximum 190 billion euro liability can’t be increased without its ESM representative approving it. According to Court President Andreas Vosskuhle:
“(No) provision of this treaty may be interpreted in a way that establishes higher payment obligations for the Federal Republic of Germany without the agreement of the German representative.”

It also insures Bundestag involvement. Under German law accompanying ESM approval, the parliament must approve its representative’s positions. It’s unclear if full parliamentary or budget committee voting is required.
Another condition mandates that Bundestag and upper chamber Bundesrat (representing federal states) are kept fully informed about bailout fund activities.

Vosskuhle called the Court ruling provisional. Full proceedings will follow. A final decision is expected in December. The Court plans a full review of ESM’s legality. At the same time, it said it won’t accept ESM interpretations to permit direct ECB borrowing.
Germany is the only Eurozone country that hasn’t ratified the treaty establishing ESM. Doing so is required to make it operative. It’s likely rubber stamp. Again does it matter?

Serious internal opposition exists. The group Mehr Demokratie (More Democracy) sued the High Court to halt ratification. It claims approval entails “unlimited and irreversible liability risks.” It wants a referendum held to let Germans decide how their money will be spent.
Christian Social Union member Peter Gauweiler called accepting new liabilities irresponsible. Members of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats are skeptical. Wolfgang Bosbach has mixed feelings, he said.

Despite some advantages, he’s greatly concerned about increasing potential liability beyond what’s safe and sensible.
In June, Germany’s Bundestag approved ESM. President Joachim Gauck is free to sign it. His signature is required.
ESM and EFSF will operate in parallel until mid-2013. At that time, ESM will be on its own. Germany must provide 27% of its funds. Critics warn amounts will end up much more than anticipated.

ESM will have 700 billion euros in capital. Only 500 billion maximum can be loaned. Troubled Spain and Italy need multiples that amount. Enough resources aren’t available to provide it.

A push come to shove moment awaits. It’s just a matter of time. It may arrive sooner than expected. Economic conditions are dire and worsening.

Brussels-based Bruegel think tank deputy director Guntram Wolff believes ESM will only provide short-term relief. He doesn’t think it’s enough. How can it be with member state resources inadequate to fund it.

ING economist Carsten Brzeski said today’s ruling fell short. It doesn’t resolve crisis conditions. It’s more feel good than real good. What’s next remains a big unknown. Clarity may arrive with a bang or thud.

Once again, time alone was bought, little else. Nothing fundamental changed. Perhaps fed up tax payers suffering austerity pain will have final say. If not them, expect economic reality to rain on today’s parade. Severe problems remain unresolved.

CurrencyMan: Please Read On if you wish to...

If you have classified A1 information not randomly available from Google or websites but exclusive only to NSA, KGB, Mossad, or No. 1, please post here. Everyone will appreciate it. You will be the next deep throat.

So, Here is the "As Is" situation before we are starting a fresh trading week. Technically EUR pairs are bidding above 50 % Fib Levels where USD and JPY are bidding below.

Well IMO technically you can call it bull now.

I don't know why people think EU won't do what it has done twice in the past few years.

But you are right above 1.35 TECHNICALLY it is full on bull

Fundamentally it is already bull.

Why? Because the only fundamentals that matter come from Ben.

If all currencies are in a race to the bottom then either USD or Euro will go much higher. That's the problem with having them so heavily weighted on each other.

I'm sorry but you can't say gold and silver are going up but EU isn't going to follow. Yeah, EU isn't going up as much as it did in the past (although I certainly don't know that for sure, if gold went to $5000 E/U could easily go over 1.60).

The bull momentum we have seen has far surpassed any bear momentum we have seen this year.

It's full bull, although it may take a small retrace or two before everyone notices it and is calling for 1.5 targets.


Has anyone here actually ever been through a QE before? There is a reason why EU surged up so much last week and it's because it's going MUCH higher. If it was only going to 1.35, we wouldn't have nearly hit 1.32 already. Anyone really think there will only be 300 points of follow through and then its bear time again?

Too many of you have very heavy short bias you need to shake and shake quickly.


And just to give a technical reason for going higher since some of you can't trade off of QE alone, check out the 30 year EW count... wave 4 finally complete??




Edit: not directed at you rekon, just traders in general

looking for a new target this week.
so i believe 1.335 is achievable.

that level was a previous high of 9/2/11 and 30/4/11

let me know what you think.

i do wonder where the retrace will go to first.. possibly fridays r2 1.3030, but we've been there already! so not so sure..


interesting stufF!

For me, 1.27550 is where I draw the line. Also, I minimize reading articles from Google full of predictions/opinions with no cost attached to it. They are either billionaire or margin called by now.

Good Game Plan

One straight Green candle on Monday will surprise me for sure. And I would start thinking Money is Unlimited.

I wouldn't rely on long term Elliot count. Ew pattern doesn't appear all the time in the market. Just my 2c.

Hello again everyone, I stayed out of the market for most of the month of August, and the first week of September. In the early weeks of August I was frustratingly short and after being stopped out on several more trades, I decided I needed to re-examine the charts in earnest rather than see what I wanted to happen on them.

After my hiatus I came back to take a small long from around the 1.27xx level. On the weekly charts I am seeing a fairly broad possible Kilroy Bottom that started to form in January and may be forming the right shoulder in the coming weeks. Certainly no way to tell for sure yet, but it is something I'll be watching.

I'm going to take my small profits on my position when the market opens today, but afterwards I think I will probably take more time off to study and hone my trading more. When I first began trading live, I had nearly 3 months of green pips in a row and naturally I was on top of the world, but after a solid month of poor trade choices, I realize I've got to sit on the sideline and study for a while. Far from blowing up my account (thanks to sound MM) I'll be back in the markets in due time and hopefully with green pips dearly earned rather than happened upon.

Until that time, happy trading everyone, I'll be cheering you all from the bleachers.