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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #54,861
  • Sep 15, 2012 8:39am Sep 15, 2012 8:39am
Quoting Vtmn
you must be very lucky to predict the market larger moves
Yes agree on that. I do not have any special ability or any lucky charm, but then with that limitation I have to find out the advantage area for my trades.

I am not doing trading for living this may be one advantage for me to be patience and set simple targets for the day.
  • #54,862
  • Sep 15, 2012 8:46am Sep 15, 2012 8:46am
Quoting rekon67
Yes agree on that. I do not have any special ability or any lucky charm, but then with that limitation I have to find out the advantage area for my trades.

I am not doing trading for living this may be one advantage for me to be patience and set simple targets for the day.
what does trading for living mean anyways, do you need to have 100000$ account or something? even if i make 100$ its worth more than working 2 days in my country atleast
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #54,863
  • Sep 15, 2012 8:47am Sep 15, 2012 8:47am
Quoting rekon67
Here is further what I have. This pair is no more technically predictable. But another technical explanation is this will turn a complete bull market if it reaches 1.3400 and stays above. Monday again we need to see causiously if it is creating another Higher High.

Attachment
Hi Rekon, what does the VIX 5% rule mean? Does it mean if VIX is Yes, that it would get to those levels?
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #54,864
  • Sep 15, 2012 8:53am Sep 15, 2012 8:53am
Quoting Vtmn
what does trading for living mean anyways, do you need to have 100000$ account or something? even if i make 100$ its worth more than working 2 days in my country atleast
I think PT can answer this well. I think people can manage a Traders Life with $20000 Equity.
  • #54,865
  • Sep 15, 2012 8:54am Sep 15, 2012 8:54am
I will be watching Sunday evening opening price and how Asian session will react. Friday before closing USD gained strength but minutes before market closed it jumped back down and seen in almost all USD pairs. It's Friday could be just profit taking because there's no news for such a move.

Still hold longs from 1.27550 and many others. Good luck all.
  • #54,866
  • Sep 15, 2012 8:57am Sep 15, 2012 8:57am
Quoting aeternum
Hi Rekon, what does the VIX 5% rule mean? Does it mean if VIX is Yes, that it would get to those levels?
It is a simple 5 % on 10 Days SMA. I used Typical price for calculation.

10 Days SMA on TP is : 1.2762
ADD 5% on 1.2762 : you get 1.3400

VIX 5% Rule: Price reached 1.3400 and closed above, next day opening price is above 1.3400, You are in a Bull Market and should look for Buy.
  • #54,867
  • Sep 15, 2012 8:59am Sep 15, 2012 8:59am
Quoting Vtmn
what does trading for living mean anyways, do you need to have 100000$ account or something? even if i make 100$ its worth more than working 2 days in my country atleast
Depends on your targets, expectations and initial capital. Some with $100,000, $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 or more
  • #54,868
  • Sep 15, 2012 9:05am Sep 15, 2012 9:05am
Quoting rekon67
It is a simple 5 % on 10 Days SMA. I used Typical price for calculation.

10 Days SMA on TP is : 1.2762
ADD 5% on 1.2762 : you get 1.3400

VIX 5% Rule: Price reached 1.3400 and closed above, next day opening price is above 1.3400, You are in a Bull Market and should look for Buy.
So if VIX says no, it indicates price is still below 1.34, and if it says yes, price is above and it indicates that the market is now bullish?
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #54,869
  • Sep 15, 2012 9:06am Sep 15, 2012 9:06am
Quoting Ken A
Depends on your targets, expectations and initial capital. Some with $100,000, $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 or more
i would be happy with 10000$, but it's like 10 months work worth of money
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #54,870
  • Sep 15, 2012 9:07am Sep 15, 2012 9:07am
Quoting Vtmn
what does trading for living mean anyways, do you need to have 100000$ account or something? even if i make 100$ its worth more than working 2 days in my country atleast
Atleast 40 % of the people in my country would consider themselves lucky if they get $100 for a whole Month.
  • #54,871
  • Sep 15, 2012 9:10am Sep 15, 2012 9:10am
Quoting aeternum
So if VIX says no, it indicates price is still below 1.34, and if it says yes, price is above and it indicates that the market is now bullish?
Price need to be traded for atleast 3 days on or above VIX 5% figure before you consider it is complementing VIX 5% rule.
  • #54,872
  • Sep 15, 2012 9:10am Sep 15, 2012 9:10am
Quoting rekon67
Atleast 40 % of the people in my country would consider themselves lucky if they get $100 for a whole Month.
ive heard that, but in Europe 100$ is nothing, worthless
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #54,873
  • Sep 15, 2012 9:11am Sep 15, 2012 9:11am
Quoting rekon67
200 SMMA and Prediction with RSI 2 , this set up is only valid if we do not have another plus 100 Higher High, for the zone I have taken the next immediate above cluster.
One of the reason why I don't use exclusively the RSI is that any sideways consolidation will cause the RSI to drop and thereby give you a false signal of reversal.

I do think we are near the top here, but where is that? I have 1.3230/50 area with an overshoot near 1.3300.

But what I have to consider is QE Infinity and the raising tensions in Lybia which will both be negative USDX. Should crude rally to $140, which some are now calling for, this will weight heavily on the US dollar. As I've been stating for the last two weeks now, the Euro's strength is not because they have fixed their problems, on the contrary, things are going to get worst there, the Euro's strength comes from the US dollar imploding on itself.

Our next resistance line on the USDX I posted was at 78.815 and we closed pretty much there at 78.800 with a low of 78.570. There's no support below until 78.039 (or the round number support of 78). I expect that to be testing in the short term (next week or two) and it will put the USDX at the low of the year.

Make no mistakes here, what Benny did last Thursday was very well depicted in CurrencyMan's animated GIF (baby throwing money out the window). It will not help the average working class who's now getting nearer to poverty levels, but will only give a nice fat bonus cheque to another banker and will boost the upper class portfolio.

Any sign of distress in the equity markets will cause the wealthy to cover their profits quickly because of the last crash (they don't want to go to the poor house, again) and will have spriralling effect that will cut 50% on the DOW. Where to you think this money will go to? Gold. But because the markets will be crashing, you'd better be taking physical delivery of it because paper assets will be worth less than the paper their printed on.

So where does this put the E/U pair? I'm maintaining my position posted last week that this is the first leg of a bull run. I would like to see a decent correction from these levels (once the euphoria in the equity markets eases) for at least 38% to 50% of whatever the high will be pegged at. Out last retrace from hitting the overshoot area (June 2010) to it's high (August 2010) was a 50% retrace to 1.2605. If we expect the same from Friday's high, we get a maximum of 1.2603. Same level as last retrace.

Every indicator I'm looking at is screaming overbought, but we all know there is no such thing as an overbought indicator in an uptrend.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #54,874
  • Sep 15, 2012 9:18am Sep 15, 2012 9:18am
Quoting Ken A
Depends on your targets, expectations and initial capital. Some with $100,000, $1,000,000 or $10,000,000 or more
Personally, I would define 'trading for a living' as; making more in the markets to offset your living expenses (and tax obligations) and putting a little aside. It has nothing to do with your initial capital. If you can make $100 a day and you only need $80 to cover all your liabilities, you're doing great.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #54,875
  • Sep 15, 2012 9:19am Sep 15, 2012 9:19am
Quoting Vtmn
ive heard that, but in Europe 100$ is nothing, worthless
Just wait a little longer, the Euro is gaining in strength
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #54,876
  • Sep 15, 2012 9:19am Sep 15, 2012 9:19am
Quoting Cgb
One of the reason why I don't use exclusively the RSI is that any sideways consolidation will cause the RSI to drop and thereby give you a false signal of reversal.

I do think we are near the top here, but where is that? I have 1.3230/50 area with an overshoot near 1.3300.

But what I have to consider is QE Infinity and the raising tensions in Lybia which will both be negative USDX. Should crude rally to $140, which some are now calling for, this will weight heavily on the US dollar. As I've been stating for the last two weeks now, the Euro's...
RSI 2 on Daily has merely any lagging stage. So what it is indicating is a correction down. Since we are in a middle of two cycle intersection Bear and Bull it is much confusing to declare anything.

So what the best we can do is to take our advantage area which is less risky and what I can see on my chart (no more f**K up with F**Mental) trade it.
  • #54,877
  • Sep 15, 2012 9:23am Sep 15, 2012 9:23am
Quoting rekon67
RSI 2 on Daily has merely any lagging stage. So what it is indicating is a correction down. Since we are in a middle of two cycle intersection Bear and Bull it is much confusing to declare anything.

So what the best we can do is to take our advantage area which is less risky and what I can see on my chart (no more f**K up with F**Mental) trade it.
What I'm saying Rekon is that technically, if we range here for the next two weeks, your RSI will go down automatically because the 'Relative Strength' of the move is weakening, not necessarily the currency pair.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #54,878
  • Sep 15, 2012 9:28am Sep 15, 2012 9:28am
Quoting Cgb
What I'm saying Rekon is that technically, if we range here for the next two weeks, your RSI will go down automatically because the 'Relative Strength' of the move is weakening, not necessarily the currency pair.
Yep agree! I am only taking a position based on technical indicator study, So my study says before moving up another 100 pips it is time for it to retrace down and I am taking a Sale position against it.

Now my next move I can only decide after a retracement happens from here.
  • #54,879
  • Sep 15, 2012 9:47am Sep 15, 2012 9:47am
Quoting Cgb
Personally, I would define 'trading for a living' as; making more in the markets to offset your living expenses (and tax obligations) and putting a little aside. It has nothing to do with your initial capital. If you can make $100 a day and you only need $80 to cover all your liabilities, you're doing great.
If the target/ecpectation is $100 per day = $3,000 (30%) per month. Decent amount to start with is $10,000 without highly leveraged. To make $39,000 390% per year is very achieveable with discipline and emotional stability. But to gain 390% with $1,000,000 capital is not as easy as with $10,000.

I tested using $2,000 capital the best I could do was $29,000 in a week before margin call
  • #54,880
  • Sep 15, 2012 9:56am Sep 15, 2012 9:56am
Quoting Ken A
If the target/ecpectation is $100 per day = $3,000 (30%) per month. Decent amount to start with is $10,000 without highly leveraged. To make $39,000 390% per year is very achieveable with discipline and emotional stability. But to gain 390% with $1,000,000 capital is not as easy as with $10,000.

I tested using $2,000 capital the best I could do was $29,000 in a week before margin call


thats pretty impressive, how did you manage to get margin call after?
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
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