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  • #11,761
  • Sep 15, 2012 8:18am Sep 15, 2012 8:18am
Quoting 4rexx
The heatmap below complements the above index charts, for information on the XAGUSD pair click here.

from what time(date) did you start mapping the currency heatmap?

the ones below i started from a month(first attachment), 2 weeks(second attachment), and 1 week(3rd attachment)...that is generally the way i do it.

it sort of look different from yours...i took mine from: http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/currency-heatmap

anyways:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-15_09-10_Currency Strength Heatmap.jpg Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-15_09-11_Currency Strength Heatmap.jpg Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-15_09-12_Currency Strength Heatmap.jpg Size: 36 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,762
  • Sep 15, 2012 8:20am Sep 15, 2012 8:20am
Excellent, lest expected this from you completely unasked for. I did not know CDS abbreviation and had no idea about COT. Heat maps was news too. I use different ways.
In any case, being trend trader I see where the trend is going hence this is my last post here.
There will be no more "trolling".
Good trading to everybody.


Quoting Skynet
you honestly want to say that you have no fucking clue what COT is? or you've never read shomari mentioned CDS?

personally, i think you are just trolling because the COT and CDS is not strictly technical analysis. That is my theory about you.

How in the name of heavens do you not know what the heck a COT is? seriously? serious-fucking-lutely.

4REXX dropped a detailed data sheet on COT, part 1 and[url="http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5841698#post5841698"]...
  • #11,763
  • Sep 15, 2012 8:25am Sep 15, 2012 8:25am
with all due respect, shomari. holy cow just doesnt give a flying fuck.

i read some of holy cow's post...and the answer to his questions are already hashed to death before...in fact, this heatmap in this post
answers his questions. but, why would i want to bother myself explaining?

there is no incentive at all for me to do so.

like i said before: whatever works for you. and i have ZERO interest convincing anybody of the value of fundamental analysis. ZERO. NADA. ZILCH. each person to their own.

hey, if holy cow is making pips...good for him. my comment ends there.







Quoting shomari
Take a deep breath dude.....Of course shit is crazy, we just had a years worth of killer decisions dropped on us in one week. LOL !!!

I love the part where you can't figure out why e/a and a/ch are diverging
or why aud and nzd (those are called commdolls by the way) are now skyrocketting.

What have we been talking about for the past week Cow? You keep saying "Well I don't do it that way." Have you stopped to think, maybe that's the problem.

Last week we talked about all the giant decisions being made about the markets and stuff, and now...
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,764
  • Sep 15, 2012 8:30am Sep 15, 2012 8:30am
oh please! you are asking COT and CDS as if you gives a shite. you honestly dont. so why ask?

and if you truly, honestly want to know...you have enough intelligence to simply search this thread and use google.

let us keep it real: you have ZERO interest in COT or CDS....none.

hence i think you are trolling.

i dont care that you dont use fundamental...nightmoves doesnt either...but what annoys me about yours posts on fundamental is what i perceive as attack on the use of fundamentals (b) trolling questions about fundamentals.

i have said my piece.



Quoting Holy Cow
Excellent, lest expected this from you completely unasked for. I did not know CDS abbreviation and had no idea about COT. Heat maps was news too. I use different ways.
In any case, being trend trader I see where the trend is going hence this is my last post here.
There will be no more "trolling".
Good trading to everybody.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,765
  • Sep 15, 2012 8:32am Sep 15, 2012 8:32am
thanks for making me laugh, fxmindset.


Quoting FXMindset
Some Weekend Jokes..
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,766
  • Sep 15, 2012 8:38am Sep 15, 2012 8:38am
Quoting 4rexx
Thought I would start dropping some analysis so we have the weekend to digest it, discuss it and come to some conclusion. Everyone needs to do their own analysis then express their views! It will be a good learning experience!

Persistence overcomes resistance!
Quoting 4rexx
The heatmap below complements the above index charts, for information on the XAGUSD pair click here.

i will say short USD and HKD.....i wont put short AUD or CHF on that list....i think this post illustrated why. It also shows how i use the heatmap.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,767
  • Edited 9:30am Sep 15, 2012 9:00am | Edited 9:30am
Quoting Holy Cow
Excellent, lest expected this from you completely unasked for. I did not know CDS abbreviation and had no idea about COT. Heat maps was news too. I use different ways.
In any case, being trend trader I see where the trend is going hence this is my last post here.
There will be no more "trolling".
Good trading to everybody.
Cow, how many times did I say to Google COT and forex ? How many ? Seriously, do a search on the words COT and forex in this thread and I'm sure you'll come up with a bunch. Dude, and if you don't know what CDS stands for, GOOGLE IT !!! LOL !! I mean WTF guys? !!!!
AllI can say is...investo-motherfuckig-pedia (that's how it's done Sky lol) www.investopedia.com
Any market terminology you don't understand, go there !!

OK,OK, this is what's up.....

I feel like I'm like a guy sitting on my porch, eating a niiiiice, creamy, ice cream cone, And some kid walks buy and he's like "Hey mister, where'd you get that delicious, creamy, ice cream cone?"
I say " Just down the block, at Mr.Forex's grocery store, I used that bike over there, gee wizz, they sure are delicious!!"
So the kid says,"Well hey mister, can you go and get me one ?"
"No kid, but look, there's a shiny bicycle in my driveway, use that, and go get yourself a delicious cone." I say.
Now the kid looks at me all weird and shit, "So that bike can bring me to the ice cream shop?" he asks.

"Sure can," I say, "go for it."
But instead of getting on the bike he repeats the question "So that bike can bring me to the ice cream shop?"
After taking a lick of my ice cream again, I begin to feel annoyed, what is this fucking kid, retarded or something ? I put a nice smile on my face and say, "Yeah kid, now run along and get your ice cream, I'm trying to eat mine, it's starting to melt."
But instead of getting on the bike this fucking little pest asks me, AGAIN, "So that bike can bring me to the ice cream shop?"
At this I yell " No, no, you little stupid brat, that bike will NOT take you to the ice cream shop, now get the hell outta here before I call your mother!!"
LOL!!!

Seriously though, the moral of the story is this :
I am no longer going to answer questions about WHICH pieces of data to look at, I've posted that a million times. No, now, YOU must actually GO AND READ THIS SHIT ONCE AND FOR ALL !! THEN, you come and ask questions about maybe what you don't understand or something.

EXAMPLE:

#1 "Hey Shomari, what fundie stuff should I look at?"
Answer: silence (The sounds of crickets chirping in the night)

#2 "Hey Shomari, I read a bunch of articles on bonds and how they relate to the forex market, but could you please explain to me WHY 7% is the magic number for European bond yields to trigger selling ?" Thanks. Fellow Trader

Answer: "Well fellow trader, the reason it is the panic area is because at that level govts can no longer.....etc etc. feel free to ask me anything else. Have a great day."

Do you see what just happened there ? I hope so. READ THE STUFF, THEN ASK QUESTIONS IF YOU DON"T UNDERSTAND !!!

Let's move on from, what to read gentlemen, to how to actually implement, what you read.
Read, read, read, then ask.

For those who FINALLY take my advice......Welcome to the next level !!
  • #11,768
  • Sep 15, 2012 9:16am Sep 15, 2012 9:16am
well put. nothing else to add.

i will try and do a detailed fundie breakdown of the currencies that are prime:

long: XAG, XAU, EUR, NZD,
short: USD, HKD, TRY

Quoting shomari
Fundamental analysis isn't subjective per se, it is looking at all the major components of the global financial system to show us a few key things, like money flows and basicaly just what is happening out there in the world. There are a few priciples of finance so when a correlating market hits a certain level, that signifies a certain event will occur. For instance, when bonds in Europe start posting yields of 7% or more, that's the officialpanic point, sostart selling EUROS. Well there's all sorts ofthose types of critical levels in every...
well put. nothing else to add.

i will try and do a detailed fundie breakdown of the currencies that are prime:

long: XAG, XAU, EUR, NZD,
short: USD, HKD, TRY

later this weekend, i will try a congent fundie digest of the relevant currencies... for now....

i have sorted out the heatmap to mainly focus on the stongest vs the weakest.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-15_10-09_Currency Strength Heatmap.jpg Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-15_10-10_Currency Strength Heatmap.jpg Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-15_10-13_Currency Strength Heatmap.jpg Size: 40 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,769
  • Edited Sep 16, 2012 4:02am Sep 15, 2012 9:40am | Edited Sep 16, 2012 4:02am
Quoting vladutz112
this is all what i need to know? cuz when u speak sounds very complicated
To get started in fundie...informed trades has a good, quick overview of fundamentals. with videos too. Also babypips link that shomari provided. Is a decent starting point.

this news aggregration site: the best that i have seen so far: aggregrates all the world economic news. Pretty much my main source of fundamental info news. it covers africa, asia, middle east, eastern europe, latin america and the rest of the western nations. http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/World+News . Just mouse over the continent...then country...then select and double click on "economy". If you like financial blogs...they have that too there: http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/Business+...gs+%28World%29

For tabulated hard data...nothing beats: http://www.tradingeconomics.com in hard geoeconomic data.

THE financial times and bloomberg.com are not bad either.

I LIKE to read actionforex weekly fundamental report: they nicely compile all the various analysts opinion into one place. from various banks and brokerages, they aggregrate all their opinion into one place...I like to read other peoples opinion to see if i am missing something.

anyways, the 1st page of the euranalysis thread(scroll down)...the very 1st post...has a lot of good links on fundie.

and of course, what shomari said: google these shit.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,770
  • Sep 15, 2012 9:43am Sep 15, 2012 9:43am
Quoting Skynet
well put. nothing else to add.

i will try and do a detailed fundie breakdown of the currencies that are prime:

long: XAG, XAU, EUR, NZD,
short: USD, HKD, TRY



well put. nothing else to add.

i will try and do a detailed fundie breakdown of the currencies that are prime:

long: XAG, XAU, EUR, NZD,
short: USD, HKD, TRY

later this weekend, i will try a congent fundie digest of the relevant currencies... for now....

i have sorted out the heatmap to mainly focus on the stongest vs the weakest.
So, if I'm reading this correctly, USD is getting thrashed, by EVERYTHING !!?

Yes ? (Which makes sense considering Bernanke just said US will be on an indefinate USD printing spree.)

Man this heat map is great !!!
  • #11,771
  • Sep 15, 2012 9:49am Sep 15, 2012 9:49am
to those interested in a reiteration of the hector 3sma...you may want to take a look at this version.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,772
  • Edited 10:20am Sep 15, 2012 9:53am | Edited 10:20am
Quoting shomari
So, if I'm reading this correctly, USD is getting thrashed, by EVERYTHING !!?
Yes ? (Which makes sense considering Bernanke just said US will be on an indefinate USD printing spree.)

Man this heat map is great !!!

PRECISELY.

USD is getting beaten up like a red headed stepchild who stole a sandwich from the school bully.

the heatmap is a fundie proxy. a person may not even know the fundamentals, but the person can see and understand why going LONG EUR/NZD is less than optimal trade....for example. when you look at the heatmap from 1 month to 2 wks to 1 wk. This was the heatmap i posted on the 12th of september, 5:05pm EST, as you can see the EUR and the NZD are pretty much neck to neck...what kind of a fool would want to trade them against each other then? (long or short, i dont care...move to other ones: deep red vs deep blue). why would you want to trade the ones that is neck to neck? the ones that are in a tug of war for dominance? you want clear dominance vs submissive--you want deep red or pink vs deep blue or light blue.

one of the reasons why i like looking at the heatmap from the monthly to 2wks to 1 week...is that you can see which one is consistently stronger/weaker...in this case, the XAG vs the USD...and you can see which is one creeping stronger or weaker.

the heatmap is a fundie proxy. a person may not even know the fundamentals, but the person will understand why he shouldnt go long EUR/NZD....for example.

Of course, you can change the date to see 2months or 6 months or 1 year...however, given the insane volatility and whipsaw economic news barrage by the politicians...i am of the opinion that any time frame that long is immaterial.

anyways, the heatmap can be found here: http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/currency-heatmap

.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,773
  • Edited 11:41am Sep 15, 2012 10:06am | Edited 11:41am
Guys, I know it's only Saturday, but let's get real, and the heatmap confirms it (visually, what we already knew).
US printing money=short USD.
I'm feelin a little good right now (drunk, AGAIN. I'm a nightclub promoter, what do you expect? lol!!) but, next week, I may just put all my chips short USD and ride that puppy til it fizzles out. I mean, what other SURE PLAY do we have going forward?
The China situation is nulified, because of QE3 euphoria, and the hope for US consumer demand pickup due to QE3, will nulify the commdoll short play, FOR NOW (until/if QE3 shows signs of not working).
Then, we've got the Euro situation. Yes germany said the bailout fund was legal constitutionally, but with Estonia now talking bailout, and Spain refusing to request one, (though I'm confident they finally will), a clear direction, at least at this point, for the Euro, is still ucertain.
But one thing THAT IS CERTAIN. Is the FED is about to print a BOATLOAD of USD, thus weakening the currency further, forcing investors into riskier assets. Sort of like a governnment forced RISK OFF maipulation.

So as far as I can see, especially now that the heatmaps confirm, at least for now, my money is on shorting the USD HEAVILY in the coming weeks.

Of course, I could be completely wrong. (unlikely)

I'll worry about euros and commdolls later !!
  • #11,774
  • Edited Sep 16, 2012 4:09am Sep 15, 2012 10:24am | Edited Sep 16, 2012 4:09am
Quoting shomari
Guys, I know it's only saturday, but let's get real, and the heatmap confirms it (visually, what we already knew).
US printing money=short USD.
I'm feelin a little good right now, but, next week, I may just put all my chips short USD and ride that puppy til it fizzles out. I mean, what other SURE PLAY do we have going forward?
The China situation is nulified, because of QE3 euphoria, and the hope for US consumer demand pickup due to QE3, will nulify the commdoll short play, FOR NOW (until QE3 shows signs of not working). ...
of course, i will write more later...basically, the USD is getting and going to get violated like a virgin by a pack of hungry vikings.

see the way the polish zloty is totally destroying the USD?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-09-15_11-29_OANDA.jpg Size: 78 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,775
  • Sep 15, 2012 10:25am Sep 15, 2012 10:25am
Quoting Skynet
PRECISELY.

USD is getting beaten up like a red headed stepchild who stole a sandwich from the school bully.

the heatmap is a fundie proxy. a person may not even know the fundamentals, but the person can see and understand why going LONG EUR/NZD is less than optimal trade....for example. when you look at the heatmap from 1 month to 2 wks to 1 wk.

one of the reasons why i like looking at the heatmap from the monthly to 2wks to 1 week...is that you can see which...
Sweet. This is very useful. It just occured to me that, yes, while I have a trendscanner, that only shows me what's trending now, but I wouldn't know what had happened with a certain currency say, over a few months time period. The heat map will let me see a currecy's transition from strong to weak, over a duration of time.

That's key. I agree, big time (very powerful) fundie tool. A person still isn't going to know WHY the moves are happening, but at least they can chart the move of the currencies over a period of time to figure out what the trends were/are themselves.
If I'm understanding correctly.
You did post this before , about 2 1/2 months ago, but as for me, I said we're in such a clear EUR downtrend, I never had to get around to using it. LOL!!!
To tell you the truth, I'm gonna use that to tell me trending exotics, (I can already figure out the majors from the news, etc). But yeah, THIS IS MY WINDOW INTO EXOTIC CURRENCIES !!!! FUCK YES !!!
I remenber a while back I asked about where to ge exotic fundie data, but this will do juuuuust fine !!!

Again Skynet THANK YOU !!!
  • #11,776
  • Sep 15, 2012 10:29am Sep 15, 2012 10:29am
Quoting Skynet
of course, i will write more later...basically, the USD is getting and going to get violated like a virgin by a pack of hungry vikings.
OUCH !!! Hahahaha!!!
  • #11,777
  • Sep 15, 2012 10:30am Sep 15, 2012 10:30am
As the USD is the currency that underpins the world economy, a rising or falling USD index has a knock on effect on other many other currencies and also commodities. Despite the massive debt ($1 trillion plus dollar budget deficit) that the US are holding they are still the global safe haven where investors will stash their money (Sovereign Bonds, Corporation Equities) in times of uncertainty for a secure and steady return.

But when (like now) the US economy continues to post bad numbers and the dollar weakens investors will take their monies out of the US (selling US$) which further weakens the USD and put their money into the other safe havens ie gold and CHF, strengthening gold and the CHF.( 23% of CHF currency is backed by gold)

If you look at the 1 year index chart below you will see the USD line on top and the CHF the centre line, as you can see when the dollar index rises the CHF weakened and on dollar weakness the far right and of the chart where we are today you see CHF is rising. A strong Euro and Gold normally move in sync, thus when USD is weak EURUSD is bullish just like the gold/USD index (bottom line) on the chart below as you can see clearly it is an inverse correlation of the US$.

However, there are exceptions to this rule, as in 2010 when the Eurozone economy looked like it was completely disintegrating both gold and the dollar went up as investors taking money out of Europe saw both gold and the US$ as safe havens resulting is a weak EUR.

For a Dow Theory analysis of gold and silver bull market go here,

Persistence overcomes resistance!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,778
  • Sep 15, 2012 10:43am Sep 15, 2012 10:43am
Quoting shomari
Sweet. This is very useful. It just occured to me that, yes, while I have a trendscanner, that only shows me what's trending now, but I wouldn't know what had happened with a certain currency say, over a few months time period. The heat map will let me see a currecy's transition from strong to weak, over a duration of time.......
indeed. you nailed it.

Quoting shomari
.....
That's key. I agree, big time (very powerful) fundie tool. A person still isn't going to know WHY the moves are happening, but at least they can chart the move of the currencies over a period of time to figure out what the trends were/are themselves.
If I'm understanding correctly.[
right on the money! that is why it is a proxy. right on the money, amigo.


Quoting shomari
.....
You did post this before , about 2 1/2 months ago, but as for me, I said we're in such a clear EUR downtrend, I never had to get around to using it. LOL!!!
the heatmap let you see the trend deterioration as it is happening....right before your eyes....also, when a trend is ending, i use the heatmap for misalignment trades: i will look at the currency that was the strongest during the previous rallying trend...and use these strong currencies to short or long in the new trend. for example.


Quoting shomari
....
To tell you the truth, I'm gonna use that to tell me trending exotics, (I can already figure out the majors from the news, etc). But yeah, THIS IS MY WINDOW INTO EXOTIC CURRENCIES !!!! FUCK YES !!!
I remenber a while back I asked about where to ge exotic fundie data, but this will do juuuuust fine !!!

Again Skynet THANK YOU !!!
THANKS for the compliment, sir. to shomari,
i use it on exotics all the time. check this post where i did a long CAD/HKD.

the heatmap was also from 12th of september:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1347559465
Quoting 4rexx
As the USD is the currency that underpins the world economy, a rising or falling USD index has a knock on effect on other many other currencies and also commodities. Despite the massive debt ($1 trillion plus dollar budget deficit) that the US are holding they are still the global safe haven where investors will stash their money (Sovereign Bonds, Corporation Equities) in times of uncertainty for a secure and steady return.

[size=3][font=Calibri][font=Calibri]But when (like...
my GOOD LAD, if i can vouch for you ten times over, i would. excellent post, as always.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,779
  • Edited 11:35am Sep 15, 2012 11:01am | Edited 11:35am
Quoting 4rexx
As the USD is the currency that underpins the world economy, a rising or falling USD index has a knock on effect on other many other currencies and also commodities. Despite the massive debt ($1 trillion plus dollar budget deficit) that the US are holding they are still the global safe haven where investors will stash their money (Sovereign Bonds, Corporation Equities) in times of uncertainty for a secure and steady return.

[size=3][font=Calibri][font=Calibri]But when (like now) the...

Thank you 4rexx, a very stimulating analysis. Personally, I think I'm in partial agreement, but disagree on a few things as well.

I agree wholeheartedly, the US is THE safe haven, but.....investing in US bonds give the smallest returns/yields of any investment, IN THE WORLD.
So think about it, if you're in US bonds, you're already getting miniscule yields, but nowthe currency itself is going to devalue cause the FED is going to print more money thus eating away at those already pathetic yields. So what's going to happen. Investors will look for higher yielding investments.

Gold, YES !!! Every investor knows, when USD weakens buy gold. That's trading 101.
As far as CHF. I'd watch for an intervention.
The 2 victims in all these QE's have been, yes, CHF, but also the JPY. For the exact reasons you said. People are, "forced out" of one safe haven currency, they run to the others. But here's the thing Both BOJ and BOS have said they will intervene to cool down their markets. RISKY CHOICES.

You're 100% right, but I wouldn't focus on where investors are going to stash their cash, as those places are risky, I would/am shorting the dollar against anything that won't intervene on me, thus, anything but CHF, or JPY. FOR NOW !!

IMHO, of course

Happy pipping !!
  • #11,780
  • Sep 15, 2012 11:16am Sep 15, 2012 11:16am
Quoting Skynet
i agree with you...but i DID took a long CAD/HKD...which is basically a short USD using CAD without directly doing it through USD/CAD.....i dont want to do the direct short USDXXX or XXXUSD due to the volatility of bernanke...(for the reason you stated above--it is madness given the volatility)...so, i went with a derivative(CAD/HKD)...also, i am already loaded to the brim with XAGs and XAUs....and my first choice were the CHFs, EUROs and GBPs derivative...however, i couldnt find a nice CHF, euro or gbp derivative to short USD with that has the...

yeah, these were the CAD trads I was talking about (withth heatmap thingabuch of posts earlier.
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