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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #11,741
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:35am Sep 14, 2012 5:35am
closed eur/nzd for BE. doe snot look good. but waiting, I will be back in when I sense good timing. that will be on vacation me think. guys, watch eur/nzd. especially for short but long might bring few pips if that trend line is broken. but short I personally see way more pips when timing is right. the pair is in huge downtrend long term and it is a runner!
  • #11,742
  • Sep 14, 2012 7:55am Sep 14, 2012 7:55am
Quoting shomari
Go to www.babypips.com and do the course FREE!!!!!!!
Then Google the following:
"bond prices and forex market"
"credit default swaps and forex market"
"interest rates and forex market"
"COT charts and forex market"
"VIX and forex market" (not so much but useful in times of panic)

goto: www.oanda.com and get heatmap (again Sky you know)

Enjoy and learn
shomary i agree with u i struggle with techincal analysys over 3 years now , can't complain cuz i'm making more than i lose but i realized that technicals analysys should be used only for finding entries and the fundamentals for direction....now my question is the fundamental analysys isn't subjective?
  • #11,743
  • Sep 14, 2012 8:49am Sep 14, 2012 8:49am
Quoting vladutz112
shomary i agree with u i struggle with techincal analysys over 3 years now , can't complain cuz i'm making more than i lose but i realized that technicals analysys should be used only for finding entries and the fundamentals for direction....now my question is the fundamental analysys isn't subjective?
I struggled with technical analysis until I read this thread:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=245149

Everything you need to know is within those pages.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #11,744
  • Sep 14, 2012 9:55am Sep 14, 2012 9:55am
closed gbp/nzd too for some 60 pips , did not like how all this moved against me. good that closed eur/nzd for BE too.
left only what is making money now and will start looking for new tardes Sunday/ Monday.
the list is long.
had mor epips 400+ to 600+ and R:R is good too especially on eur/usd been almost 6.5:1 R:R. nice run. probably gonna lock 4% at the end of the day.
2% on e/y and 3.5% on eur/aud.
it looks like it might be a really big runs.

aud/chf is not moving as strong as eur/aud. interesting. i am looking to buy. bought it, but closed then for small 30 pips loss as it did not move as I expected.

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  • #11,745
  • Sep 14, 2012 2:32pm Sep 14, 2012 2:32pm
Quoting shomari
Go to www.babypips.com and do the course FREE!!!!!!!
Then Google the following:
"bond prices and forex market"
"credit default swaps and forex market"
"interest rates and forex market"
"COT charts and forex market"
"VIX and forex market" (not so much but useful in times of panic)

goto: www.oanda.com and get heatmap (again Sky you know)

Enjoy and learn
this is all what i need to know? cuz when u speak sounds very complicated
  • #11,746
  • Sep 14, 2012 3:28pm Sep 14, 2012 3:28pm
I see lot's of opportunities. aud/jpy and aud/usd definite buys. cannot believe I missed them. entries were below but especially aud/jpy not everything is lost for now. generally I need pull backs and see what it will be doing there both of them.
aud/chf is neutral for now but overall if this thing holds it might a buy again. gbp/nzd looks short. I was just being careful. always can get in in such situations. I was in and out of eur/usd 4-5 times and I am in now.
Eur/Nzd looks like a good buying opportunity for now. Typical Hector's set up now actually. 123. abc and so forth. But in any case it is better to be patient with entries. Have no idea what those guys in Europe will be talking this weekend about. Gotta be careful. Probably will wait till after midnight Sunday to Monday depending how markets open.

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  • #11,747
  • Sep 14, 2012 3:31pm Sep 14, 2012 3:31pm
I was in 2 aud/jpy trades for about 3 months long side. ended in profit but expected big run. Hence simply stopped watching and here I think there is a good chance previous resistance would not hold and price will go back to 88.00 or higher. jpy is hugely weak. eur/jpy has broken pivotal level and who knows. 111.00 or more!!!! I do not have target but seeing such distances helps. It is always good to be positive.
  • #11,748
  • Sep 14, 2012 8:01pm Sep 14, 2012 8:01pm
Quoting shomari
Like I said this week is pivotal,and that's because we should,next week, see where the short to medium term trends will take us, going into at least Christmas. So in fact NEXT WEEK, is the time to pounce, ... we all post our trendscans, heatmaps, COT chart analyses, CDS prices and interesting articles analysing this weeks data. By next Tuesday, the trends will begin,so we should ALL be ready, with every tool we have at our disposals, pool them, analyse the data, then.... rip these markets ...
Thought I would start dropping some analysis so we have the weekend to digest it, discuss it and come to some conclusion. Everyone needs to do their own analysis then express their views! It will be a good learning experience!

Persistence overcomes resistance!
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  • #11,749
  • Sep 14, 2012 8:08pm Sep 14, 2012 8:08pm
The heatmap below complements the above index charts, for information on the XAGUSD pair click here.
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  • #11,750
  • Sep 15, 2012 6:32am Sep 15, 2012 6:32am
Originally Posted by shomari http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Like I said this week is pivotal,and that's because we should,next week, see where the short to medium term trends will take us, going into at least Christmas. So in fact NEXT WEEK, is the time to pounce, ... we all post our trendscans, heatmaps, COT chart analyses, CDS prices and interesting articles analysing this weeks data. By next Tuesday, the trends will begin,so we should ALL be ready, with every tool we have at our disposals, pool them, analyse the data, then.... rip these markets ...



I think it is a bit late for most pairs. Markets sensed things long ago and for most pairs train had left the station. in hindsight I should not have been so spooky. all trades I closed manually I along the way and I am out. there is however few pairs that entries are still possible. i posted above and with nzd/jpy, nzd/chf also might be a good trades. on many if no pull back no entry anymore. the most important is what are the goals of the trades? if 100 pips so may be not late but for me late already. I am waiting for Sunday/ Monday to see what will be going on. I sense might get open 2-3 new trades.
  • #11,751
  • Sep 15, 2012 6:53am Sep 15, 2012 6:53am
Quoting 4rexx
The heatmap below complements the above index charts, for information on the XAGUSD pair click here.

Rex, first thing, what are your goals on trades?
I do not trade gold so have no idea.
But the pairs you posted except aud/chf the rest are all goners for me. Too late, the train left the station. aud/chf might provide very good opportunity. i rode it long and it did look long until Friday but now it increasingly looks short.
The problem is that aud and nzd which were basket cases just few days ago suddenly up and getting stronger. they used to be at the top not long ago. and chf is shadowing eur. but check eur/aud and then compare to aud/chf.
aud/chf might be lagging.
I think I started posting too much and started missing on trades. Just noticed gbp/aud. this is how I miss them. might be a good short opportunity too. But in both and all cases no prediction. I need to see what will be happening on Sunday/ Monday. things can change.
If you are looking for 100 pips no big deal, but to ride a big pips all pairs you posted but aud/chf are gambles now. what's stop size?
aud/usd also best entry missed, with pull back which is underway and following some PA confirmation might be good buy but again I see all those previous tops. they might be broken but again I want to have some space to lock profits and have decent r:r. there were many great opportunities to enter, have no idea how could I miss them.
  • #11,752
  • Sep 15, 2012 6:54am Sep 15, 2012 6:54am
Need to bring focus back and probably one more monitor after coming back. with laptop I will have for 3 weeks it is easy to miss things.
  • #11,753
  • Sep 15, 2012 7:16am Sep 15, 2012 7:16am
Quoting vladutz112
shomary i agree with u i struggle with techincal analysys over 3 years now , can't complain cuz i'm making more than i lose but i realized that technicals analysys should be used only for finding entries and the fundamentals for direction....now my question is the fundamental analysys isn't subjective?
Fundamental analysis isn't subjective per se, it is looking at all the major components of the global financial system to show us a few key things, like money flows and basicaly just what is happening out there in the world. There are a few priciples of finance so when a correlating market hits a certain level, that signifies a certain event will occur. For instance, when bonds in Europe start posting yields of 7% or more, that's the officialpanic point, sostart selling EUROS. Well there's all sorts ofthose types of critical levels in every type of financial market and when theye are hit, it's good to know howthat applies to us, the forex trader.
The fundamentals are bits of information about what is happening globally,and it is by knowing the importance of those bits you will know what is truly going on and WHY the price of things are moving the way they are.
What would you do if Iran actually did close the Strait of Hormuz ? You would go long oil right ? Yes, because reality is, when oil supply shocks are feared, oil prices go up. That's all, you are looking at events in the world and asking yourself one question " How will this event affect the forex market?" Done, then you break it down to individual currencies " Will this event affect the price of AUD ? If so how ?." If not, on to the next currency. Until you find one who looks good to go and one that's weak, pair them up, and trade away.

I hope that helps, but google that stuff I said, also I posted awesomearticles on allofthose sujects a few months ago, so I'msure aquick search will lead you to em.
  • #11,754
  • Sep 15, 2012 7:17am Sep 15, 2012 7:17am
Quoting joaoborras
Hi Shomari.
Thanks for your asnwer. I will study the entire thread from now on.
Until now, had only a "birds eye view". But I think it is fantastic because I always "knew" that fundamentals plays a great deal in the trade but I have not a clear idea on how to follow it or make sense of it.
I think market correlation is a great tool to learn the capital flow among the various markets.

Again, thank you for all the good information!
Joao Paulo

You hit the nail on the head
  • #11,755
  • Sep 15, 2012 7:38am Sep 15, 2012 7:38am
Quoting 4rexx
The heatmap below complements the above index charts, for information on the XAGUSD pair click here.
Heatmaps don't lie, but I would say we hold off til day 2 of the next trading week befoer we start to accept that data as a sign of what will happen in the markets going forward.
The reason I say that is because everyones been on hoidays over the summer a just got back, since they knew last weeks data would be so huge you can see that, yes, while there were price moves, it was really a wait and see market. When you look at the volume of trades in your COT charts you'll see that while positios of trader might have flipped, the amount of money being kept on the sidelines was huuuuge.
So what I'm saying is, I wouldn't be surprised to see some more flips from long to short and vice versa next week. I mean from the heatmap CAD was weak last week. Well if I remember correctly Sky dropped some charts on us that showed CAD going straight to the stratosphere after Bernankes press conference last week.
This upcoming weeks when we'll see all the big money piiiiiile into the markets and set our trend directions for the short to medium term 1 - 3 months, but reality will set in I think. (But that'sa whole other post, excuse me,I digress.)
NOW, as far as what I THINK will happen, I see USD weakening, obviously cause their about to print shitloads of USD. I see trouble with JPY, cause I heard they may be planning on an intervention. I got caught in a BOJ intervention last year, believe me, you don't want that happening to you, good trades wiped out in literally milliseconds. Check back on your charts and see for yourselves.
Other than that, it's wait and see. Wherever they take us, I'm willing to go, who cares, as long as we're all banking pips right ?
  • #11,756
  • Sep 15, 2012 7:45am Sep 15, 2012 7:45am
Quoting Holy Cow
Originally Posted by shomari http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
[i]Like I said this week is pivotal,and that's because we should,next week, see where the short to medium term trends will take us, going into at least Christmas. So in fact NEXT WEEK, is the time to pounce, ... we all post our trendscans, heatmaps, COT chart analyses, CDS prices and interesting articles...
This party is just starting to heat up. All that news from last week is being digested and we wil see the BEGININGS or continuations of solid trends next week.

Patience young samurai. (said in a old grey bearded kung fu master voice)
  • #11,757
  • Sep 15, 2012 7:51am Sep 15, 2012 7:51am
Quoting Holy Cow
Shomari,what is CDS and COT? I have no idea what are those? ........
you honestly want to say that you have no fucking clue what COT is? or you've never read shomari mentioned CDS?

personally, i think you are just trolling because the COT and CDS is not strictly technical analysis. That is my theory about you.

How in the name of heavens do you not know what the heck a COT is? seriously? serious-fucking-lutely.

4REXX dropped a detailed data sheet on COT, part 1 and part 2.

frack it, if we are going to play that game: i dont know what a ham sandwich is either. while at it...what the fuck does the SMA stands for? heck...what is "forex"? what is a "bid" or a "ask"? can somebody please explain to me what "EUR/USD" stands for?

please, let us cut the crap.

AS FAR AS I AM CONCERNED, shomari has no business apologizing for his tone in this reply:
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,758
  • Sep 15, 2012 8:03am Sep 15, 2012 8:03am
Quoting shomari
Sorry it took so long for me to answer. Yes bloomberg website has CDS charts, honestly when it comes to bond auctions I usually just follow the news report on ff homepage. (bonds you don't need realtime info, just knowledge of the price is good enough). I hope that helpd. Do a search of the thread, if I remember correctly Skynet posted some links to CDS and various other indexes.
you can find the CDS link i posted here.


Quoting zusch
I struggled with technical analysis until I read this thread:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=245149

Everything you need to know is within those pages.

i strugged with technical analysis until i realized that all of them are simply Trendline or support and resistance...or a combination of the two. i like millipede thread(it has certain flaws...but a good thread.)
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,759
  • Sep 15, 2012 8:04am Sep 15, 2012 8:04am
Quoting Holy Cow
Rex, first thing, what are your goals on trades?
I do not trade gold so have no idea.
But the pairs you posted except aud/chf the rest are all goners for me. Too late, the train left the station. aud/chf might provide very good opportunity. i rode it long and it did look long until Friday but now it increasingly looks short.
The problem is that aud and nzd which were basket cases just few days ago suddenly up and getting stronger. they used to be at the top not long ago. and chf is shadowing eur. but check eur/aud and then compare to aud/chf....
Take a deep breath dude.....Of course shit is crazy, we just had a years worth of killer decisions dropped on us in one week. LOL !!!

I love the part where you can't figure out why e/a and a/ch are diverging
or why aud and nzd (those are called commdolls by the way) are now skyrocketting.

What have we been talking about for the past week Cow? You keep saying "Well I don't do it that way." Have you stopped to think, maybe that's the problem.

Last week we talked about all the giant decisions being made about the markets and stuff, and now you're acting all surprised that prices went nuts. DUUUH!! LOL!!!

I'm not trying to be mean or anything, it's just, you can actually hear the panic in your post, it's sounds funny. Of course I can laugh cause I know everything will be fine, I'm a little tipsy, don't mind me.
Take a deep breath dude, everythings gonna be alright. LOL!!!
  • #11,760
  • Sep 15, 2012 8:04am Sep 15, 2012 8:04am
Some Weekend Jokes..
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If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
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