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USD/CAD

  • #3,321
  • Sep 14, 2012 10:26am Sep 14, 2012 10:26am
Quoting Davit
Went long again this time little more confident.
Market obviously rejected any lower.Fact that while Euro kept rising so did Cad says a lot.
Euro went 30 to 3160 and during this period last 12hrs Cad actually went higher!
So this is my clue that we hit bottom in short term..
wheres your TP?
  • #3,322
  • Sep 14, 2012 10:33am Sep 14, 2012 10:33am
You guys think the anti-US turmoil in the affected Arab nations will push oil up (and CAD)? A short here at 96.90 is mighty tempting.
  • #3,323
  • Sep 14, 2012 10:37am Sep 14, 2012 10:37am
Quoting Arkv
You guys think the anti-US turmoil in the affected Arab nations will push oil up (and CAD)? A short here at 96.90 is mighty tempting.
It should of happened already.If that was a factor.It can still happen but I am long biased.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,324
  • Sep 14, 2012 10:38am Sep 14, 2012 10:38am
Quoting trexy123
wheres your TP?
9920
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,325
  • Sep 14, 2012 10:57am Sep 14, 2012 10:57am
Quoting Kadc
Since even terrible retroactive Canadian economic news was unable to move the Loonie more than a 40 pips off its steady downward march, and with yet another oil refinery shut down in Texas not to mention more trouble in the Middle East putting the near-term consensus for WTI at $105, the bear trend is clearly continuing so I took advantage of this minor pull-back to add to my short position.
low 9632
Present 9706
Over 70pips.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,326
  • Sep 14, 2012 11:00am Sep 14, 2012 11:00am
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
We finally hit 0.9708, the 23.6% retracement from 0.9950 three weeks ago, and since it's noon on a Friday with no late afternoon economic data there's little likelihood of further significant movement today, so you're probably safe to place your short at this point, particularly if you're anticipating Middle East trouble over the weekend.

On the other hand, there's no harm in waiting to see if you can get in at a higher point if you're going to be sitting in front of your computer anyway.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #3,327
  • Sep 14, 2012 11:37am Sep 14, 2012 11:37am
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
Quoting Davit
low 9632
Present 9706
Over 70pips.
Nearly 80 pips to the 23.6% Fibonacci where it more-or-less is now if small moves like that are important to your style of trading, but all the 8:30am EST economic calendar data only moved USD/CAD 40 pips which was enough to convince me to add to my position.

Certainly it would have been smarter to wait for proper sell triggers, but I think between being a little too tired and doing well in gold made me less careful than usual. I will have to make sure I always stick to my trading rules in the future and force myself to quit as soon as I feel tired, but I'm sure everyone knows how hard it can be to drag yourself away from the charts.

Nevertheless, as the fundamentals and technicals stand now, I think we'll see 0.95 before you hit your target of 0.99 so I stand behind my short. If we hit the 38.2% Fibonacci at 0.975 I'll probably add to my position again (and kick myself for not waiting for a proper signal), but you're more than welcome to gloat if that happens as I deserve to be reminded to never stray from proper trading techniques.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #3,328
  • Sep 14, 2012 11:45am Sep 14, 2012 11:45am
Quoting Kadc
Nearly 80 pips to the 23.6% Fibonacci where it more-or-less is now if small moves like that are important to your style of trading, but all the 8:30am EST economic calendar data only moved USD/CAD 40 pips which was enough to convince me to add to my position.

Certainly it would have been smarter to wait for proper sell triggers, but I think between being a little too tired and doing well in gold made me less careful than usual. I will have to make sure I always stick to my trading rules in the future and force myself to quit as soon as I feel...
My friend I never gloat.I hate that.We traders are same breed of people.
Good luck to you.
Just a observation.

When the herd goes short big Market Makers go long generally because they know where seating ducks are.
Now your theory of turmoil in middle east etc should make everyone shorting but why it has not dived down?
Don't you partially agree that big buys are buying and not selling?
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,329
  • Sep 14, 2012 12:02pm Sep 14, 2012 12:02pm
Lovely hammertime on daily - in progress.
  • #3,330
  • Sep 14, 2012 12:46pm Sep 14, 2012 12:46pm
- U/C H1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UC H1.png Size: 24 KB
  • #3,331
  • Sep 14, 2012 2:05pm Sep 14, 2012 2:05pm
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
Quoting Davit
Don't you partially agree that big buys are buying and not selling?
I definitely believe in contrarian sentiment trading and it's one of the ways I choose my entry or exit targets for long-term moves, but that doesn't normally happen until sentiment well into the 90 percentiles starts to swing the other way. i.e. The market has gone so far that people start getting nervous and start abandoning their trades, and it's at that point that even a small event will trigger wide-scale panic selling.

Right now USD/CAD has a clear down-trending daily RSI channel and everyone is too comfortable shorting USD across all the major pairs for a panic trigger, so I don't believe the setting is right for a sentiment reversal at this time, but if all the pairs converge on record highs in about four weeks like it looks might happen, we could definitely see it happen. My guess is currency confluence will occur around the time of October 8/9 ECB/Fed conference.

Certainly I could be wrong, but what I'm looking for right now before I go long is a breakout from the RSI channel, or at least a breakout from the downward channel the price-action is in on the hourly charts.

Now, it does look like a hammer may be forming on the daily chart, but the way it's positioned would require a confirmation candle Monday. Also, MACD and DMI look safely bearish on the daily charts to me.

On the Middle-Eastern front, even if tensions relax, we are heading into the fall when the price of oil normally rises, and with another Texas refinery shut down this week I expect the reserve number next Wednesday to push the price of oil higher. Additionally, WTI has a bull-trending RSI channel on the daily charts, so again, I don't see oil falling.

Gold, too, appears to be safely bullish at the moment (though a retracement is long overdue which is why I closed my position at $1775), and with both oil and gold bullish, the Loonie usually follows suit.

Fortunately, you're in the money now anyway so it's a win for you regardless of what happens.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #3,332
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:48pm Sep 14, 2012 6:48pm
We are a ways away from a reversal. QE announcements are historically bearish on the USD. If the other QE programs are any clue, we generally get a solid 5-600 pip move down and a strong bearish trend right until the bond purchasing ceases.

That leaves two questions.

How long will they buy bonds?
How much is priced into the USD/CAD already?

I'm very comfortable placing shorts on retracements (like today), with the 2008 all time lows in sight. There is a tonne of technical support above the price, little resistance below, and the word "unlimited" is a very strong fundamental case to argue USD inflation.


QE2 = $600 billion over 6 months = 800 pips down
QE3 = $240 billion over 6 months = ???? How much is already priced in? How long will the buying last? 3 months? 24 months?
  • #3,333
  • Sep 14, 2012 11:01pm Sep 14, 2012 11:01pm
Where to place stop loss ?


Quoting Rknigh2
We are a ways away from a reversal. QE announcements are historically bearish on the USD. If the other QE programs are any clue, we generally get a solid 5-600 pip move down and a strong bearish trend right until the bond purchasing ceases.

That leaves two questions.

How long will they buy bonds?
How much is priced into the USD/CAD already?

I'm very comfortable placing shorts on retracements (like today), with the 2008 all time lows in sight. There is a tonne of technical support above the price, little resistance below, and the word "unlimited"...
  • #3,334
  • Sep 14, 2012 11:05pm Sep 14, 2012 11:05pm
Quoting Kadc
I definitely believe in contrarian sentiment trading and it's one of the ways I choose my entry or exit targets for long-term moves, but that doesn't normally happen until sentiment well into the 90 percentiles starts to swing the other way. i.e. The market has gone so far that people start getting nervous and start abandoning their trades, and it's at that point that even a small event will trigger wide-scale panic selling.

Right now USD/CAD has a clear down-trending daily RSI channel and everyone is too comfortable shorting USD across all the...
Thanks for taking your time explaining.I and lot of others appreciate it.Forum should be like this exchanging ideas.
You kind of made me pause and zoom out and look at the bigger picture.
Thank you
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,335
  • Sep 14, 2012 11:16pm Sep 14, 2012 11:16pm
Quoting Rknigh2
We are a ways away from a reversal. QE announcements are historically bearish on the USD. If the other QE programs are any clue, we generally get a solid 5-600 pip move down and a strong bearish trend right until the bond purchasing ceases.

That leaves two questions.

How long will they buy bonds?
How much is priced into the USD/CAD already?

I'm very comfortable placing shorts on retracements (like today), with the 2008 all time lows in sight. There is a tonne of technical support above the price, little resistance below, and the word "unlimited"...
I don't see 800 pips down.Last time that happened was 2008 Housing crises and severe economical meltdown.
Conditions now are different.Not as drastic as you paint personally.I could see max .95 or .9470 but no further down.
I am also skeptical about fundamentals views, for example based on fundamentals Euro should not be 1.30+ agreed? Spain.Greece,Ireland,Portugal,Italy all falling apart and only supported by one country Germany.
With massive debt and uncertain future as currency how could one explain Euro rising.
Agreed that fundies are not the only driving forces in the market.USD can easily gain her strength despite of any predictions otherwise.
When one looks at any chart one sees up and down movement.One rarely sees down, down,down and down.Nope.At some point it starts rising no matter what the circumstance.Because I firmly believe price always comes back to fair value.

This pair doesn't get enough attention here but I love this pair more then Aussie.Aussie swap is too high.Euro is a wild goose now and Cable is the arrogant bitch that doesn't want to decline...
At this time this is a great pair to trade.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,336
  • Sep 15, 2012 2:47am Sep 15, 2012 2:47am
Well the usd/cad actually rode the 2500 pip rocket up during the crisis. The 800 pips down I'm talking about is the 6 months of bond buying nov 2010 to April 2011. Two major differences between then and now though... More of the move appears to be priced in before the announcement and the amount of bond buying is less aggressive, but curiously open-ended.

Stops placed above the major .9940 support.
  • #3,337
  • Sep 15, 2012 11:41am Sep 15, 2012 11:41am
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sy...&txtDate=#jump
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #3,338
  • Sep 18, 2012 8:50am Sep 18, 2012 8:50am
If we can break the first resistance around .9760... the major .9840 may get tested today. I'm not sure if the USD has enough fundamental pressure (short of some risk aversion) that could break that major level though.
  • #3,339
  • Sep 18, 2012 10:01am Sep 18, 2012 10:01am
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
Quoting Davit
Thanks for taking your time explaining.I and lot of others appreciate it.Forum should be like this exchanging ideas.
You kind of made me pause and zoom out and look at the bigger picture.
Thank you
I should also have mentioned that sentiment reversals almost always happen just past significant historic highs/lows or psychological levels, never at the point when they "should" happen, which is a good reason to take profit or at least tighten your stops when approaching these areas.

Always remember, bulls get rich and bears get rich but pigs get slaughtered.

Also, congratulations on your call. I wouldn't have gone long (I don't go against the trend even for a scalp) but I certainly should have exited my position and re-entered at 0.9755 instead of being so cavalier about losing/making a few hundred dollars.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #3,340
  • Sep 18, 2012 11:00am Sep 18, 2012 11:00am
Quoting Kadc
I should also have mentioned that sentiment reversals almost always happen just past significant historic highs/lows or psychological levels, never at the point when they "should" happen, which is a good reason to take profit or at least tighten your stops when approaching these areas.

Always remember, bulls get rich and bears get rich but pigs get slaughtered.

Also, congratulations on your call. I wouldn't have gone long (I don't go against the trend even for a scalp) but I certainly should have exited my position and re-entered at 0.9755...
Nice to have you post again.I have a pending buy at 9735
Blue line is 72EMA 3day average.Looking a bounce from it.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1347982459
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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