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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #54,761
  • Sep 14, 2012 8:27am Sep 14, 2012 8:27am
Quoting PipTrapper
Still. Well done mate.

Now I have to see how best to manage my shorts. I still believe we will be testing 1.2440 at some point this year but I also have a couple of shorts below there. It's really not a big deal since all those shorts below market are very small lot sizes and the ones above are still large. However, my break even point between green and red floating trades is around 1.3250. If we go above that level, I may have to close out everything and erase 3 months of work for nothing.
..in the same boat as ya PT, or should I say sub! Also shorts below there and u/cad longs from higher too ... but small enough sizes though and if the worst comes to worst at least it's the cost of a good education for me and not time wasted I suppose ...but still...

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The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #54,762
  • Sep 14, 2012 8:27am Sep 14, 2012 8:27am
Quoting PipTrapper
. I may have to close out everything and erase 3 months of work for nothing.
I hope that wont be necessarry mate. If you see it coming, try to dodge the van, you are fast enough .

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,763
  • Sep 14, 2012 8:35am Sep 14, 2012 8:35am
this is so much more fun than sitting on ~35 pip range
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #54,764
  • Sep 14, 2012 8:42am Sep 14, 2012 8:42am
Y, really lol market.

Edit: Hehe, another break. I am so f..ing rich right now! Muahahahaa. Well, it still can fall . As well as I with my mid term trading.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,765
  • Sep 14, 2012 8:45am Sep 14, 2012 8:45am
Quoting PipTrapper
Still. Well done mate.

Now I have to see how best to manage my shorts. I still believe we will be testing 1.2440 at some point this year but I also have a couple of shorts below there. It's really not a big deal since all those shorts below market are very small lot sizes and the ones above are still large. However, my break even point between green and red floating trades is around 1.3250. If we go above that level, I may have to close out everything and erase 3 months of work for nothing.

That's a pretty bold expectation. May i ask what are your main arguments ? Right now it looks impossible with the FED's backstop.
  • #54,766
  • Sep 14, 2012 8:48am Sep 14, 2012 8:48am
SP500 soars on the back of the industrial production and capacity utilization rate


Wohooo, go Bernanke
  • #54,767
  • Sep 14, 2012 8:50am Sep 14, 2012 8:50am
Quoting lumesh
That's a pretty bold expectation. May i ask what are your main arguments ? Right now it looks impossible with the FED's backstop.
One of the explanations is, lets say technical. In recent years, cycle in EUR/USD was moving in a way, that whenever such a long term run without correction occured, it was followed by vicious retracement usually @ 50%. So, for example if we top somwhere here, we could very well see the number. Or, if they screw up big in Europe, we could have 80% retracement later as well.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,768
  • Sep 14, 2012 8:52am Sep 14, 2012 8:52am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
One of the explanations is, lets say technical. In recent years, cycle in EUR/USD was moving in a way, that whenever such a long term run without correction occured, it was followed by vicious retracement usually @ 50%. So, for example if we top somwhere here, we could very well see the number. Or, if they screw up big in Europe, we could have 80% retracement later as well.

T

okay, give me an example
  • #54,769
  • Sep 14, 2012 8:53am Sep 14, 2012 8:53am
well, in theory there should be major resistance right here.......
  • #54,770
  • Sep 14, 2012 8:55am Sep 14, 2012 8:55am
Quoting lumesh
okay, give me an example
It was in 4 out of 5 of those top waves.

Quoting Tom_D_Trader
This post is actually very useless, but I was wondering, how long can we go without retracement. So, I ran a test for fun.

I set parameters for recognizing wave as 30% retracement with minimum worth of 100 pips on daily close.

Since 6.6.2010, we had only five such a waves. I wonder if this wave will make it to top five. Now we are running for 29 days nonstop.
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,771
  • Sep 14, 2012 8:55am Sep 14, 2012 8:55am
Quoting lumesh
That's a pretty bold expectation. May i ask what are your main arguments ? Right now it looks impossible with the FED's backstop.
From a fundamental perspective, it's a given that Spain's and Greece's troubles will escalate.

From a sentiment perspective, traders will want to take profits soon. We are at a 5 year high on equity indices and the higher the risk assets go without a substantial correction, the less the bulls will be ready to jump in.

From a technical perspective, there is much unfinished business down there. Of course if we reach as high as 1.3250 area without a correction, then perhaps I will have to adjust my downward projection up to 1.2590 from 1.2440

Can you come up with one single argument (technical or fundamental) for a bullish target other than Fed backstop?

I'm not really in the mood to pick tops right now, but I see 1.3175/80 as a perfect place to sell, should we get there today. (78.6 fibo of 2012 range and 161.8 fibo of the june hi to July lo move)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,772
  • Sep 14, 2012 8:56am Sep 14, 2012 8:56am
Quoting irfandbl
Careful on the shorts guys, use proper MM

Attachment

1.2832
1.2979
1.3126
touchdown

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: W1.gif Size: 17 KB


should see a pullback now, or could this be the top?
  • #54,773
  • Sep 14, 2012 8:56am Sep 14, 2012 8:56am
Quoting lumesh
okay, give me an example

I mean i accept the retrace of such a huge move to go to the low 3000s but 2500 really needs strong catalysts. We have good chunk of hopium from the euro area as well.
  • #54,774
  • Sep 14, 2012 8:58am Sep 14, 2012 8:58am
Quoting PipTrapper
Still in my shorts but not adding any more ... yet


http://www.colourbox.com/preview/443...ose-shorts.jpg
The question is are whe going straight to 1.33 or whe pulling back first to 1.27
  • #54,775
  • Sep 14, 2012 9:02am Sep 14, 2012 9:02am
In my opinion that U of M survey is highly suspect...i dont believe there is increased consumer confidence at this time in the US........

Unless they are oversampling democrats like the presidental polls do, and the welfare babies are confident their welfare checks are secure and going up........
  • #54,776
  • Sep 14, 2012 9:04am Sep 14, 2012 9:04am
well, if i guess resistance is no longer an operative concept.........
  • #54,777
  • Sep 14, 2012 9:06am Sep 14, 2012 9:06am
Weekly chart. Draw your own conclusions.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-w1.gif Size: 52 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,778
  • Sep 14, 2012 9:07am Sep 14, 2012 9:07am
couldnt image better day than this, i hope everyone is doing well !
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #54,779
  • Sep 14, 2012 9:07am Sep 14, 2012 9:07am
Quoting lumesh
I mean i accept the retrace of such a huge move to go to the low 3000s but 2500 really needs strong catalysts. We have good chunk of hopium from the euro area as well.
Well, there is "hopium" and "hopium". They are very different.

"Hopium" I have been mentioning in recent weeks, are market expectations of USD inflow. Right now, those expectations have been filled up to 40 Bn per month.

In Europe, there may be "Hopium" of market expectations as well, but should it come to use, it is different. In case there should be delivery, there is nothing to deliver but promises and that is a whole new situation. Another very different "hopium" is then provided by ECB, but this one is not as tasty, as it is sterilized. When EU runs out of promises, ECB will stop sterilizing as well, and that is the point when the real fun begins.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,780
  • Sep 14, 2012 9:11am Sep 14, 2012 9:11am
Quoting irfandbl
touchdown
100% target hit? Congratz
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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