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  • #54,701
  • Sep 14, 2012 4:39am Sep 14, 2012 4:39am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Good morning guys,

T
Morning Tom. You should be well into the green now.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,702
  • Sep 14, 2012 4:42am Sep 14, 2012 4:42am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Good morning guys,

T
Is you scuba-gear for sale @E-bay ?
Inflation in things we need, Deflation in things we want.
  • #54,703
  • Sep 14, 2012 4:45am Sep 14, 2012 4:45am
So the Fed proceeded and have done QE3.... well tbh i think we should have expected it, of course easy to say that now

Anyhow, it now seems that 1.31/50 is on the cards, i have squashed all my shorts at 1.29, I am holding a long position from 1.2680 but its onlt the 1/3 of the position as i closed the 2/3 at 1.28, i will need price to reach 1.34 just to balance the losses with this small long position im holding, but i will be buying small amounts into any dips (if any) till we get to 1.3150 and hopefully balance my losses this way, in case we do not see 1.34 hehehehe....

I will leave the heavy trading side of things to a side and will wait the 1.31/50 level and will then re-think my strategy, at the moment its a guessing game and i don't like trading like that. So, patience, for me anyways, is now key.

Good luck to all and many green pips...
Cheers!!
  • #54,704
  • Edited 4:48am Sep 14, 2012 4:46am | Edited 4:48am
Gentlemen,
While its true that a great deal of the QE 3 may be priced in, i'm not so sure the next correction will happen right away.

I believe the powers that be will want to bid up the single currency as quickly as possible so that the next wave of bad Euro news, wich is sure to come (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, etc) can serve as the catalyst for the next correction.

Also, the last Bull run began at about the terminus of our last Bear run and i did a study of that last move (which was occured while periodically being bombarded with Bad News coming Greece, Spain, Italy, etc).

It began on 6/7/2010 and appears to be a rather good example of Elliot Wave Principal in action being that it was comprised of 3 Bull Legs or Waves, with 2 Bear Legs or Waves or Corrections in between. So 5 parts in total thus:

1. Bull leg up beginning 6/7/2010 for (rounded) 1,450 pips. [9 weeks duration]
2. Correction down beginning 8/8/2010 for 700 pips (a 50% retracement of move). [5 weeks]
3. Bull leg up beginning 9/10/2010 for 1,650 pips. [8 weeks]
4. Correction down beginning 11/5/2010 for 1,400 pips (just shy of a 61.8% retrace of the entire Bull run beginning 6/7/2010). [9 weeks]
5. Final Bull leg up beginning 1/10/2011 for 2,050 pips, ending 5/5/2011 [16 weeks]

I realise that past is not always prologue, however, most of us have seen that patterns often repeat themselves in forex.

Based on this study and the chart/price action in this current move, i'm thinking this first leg of this Bull run will terminate in the area between 1.3480 and 1.3550 (this level is also a natrual point of high resistance being the 100% retrace of the last Bear leg/wave down), after overcoming resistance at 1.3130 (the 76.4% fib retrace).

The zone between 1.2930 (61.8% fib) and 1.3130 (76.4% fib) may become a lengthy consolidation.

How quickly the pair overcomes this zone may give clue to the strength of this Bull.

For example, if it overcomes it within 1 week or less, its probably a sign of continued strength.

Cheers.
  • #54,705
  • Sep 14, 2012 4:52am Sep 14, 2012 4:52am
Good Morning Guys

As it is Friday today, it's time for a little relaxation after crazy week.
PT, this video is in relation to QE3 and US debt.
Look how much work it require to print billions of dollars...
Funny

Inserted Video
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #54,706
  • Sep 14, 2012 4:54am Sep 14, 2012 4:54am
Quoting PipTrapper
Morning Tom. You should be well into the green now.
8:1 mate. I am ripping profits. I will deleverage myself to 3:1 very soon, just need to find right place.

Btw, I am still running some calculations, but very hard to set some clear target right now. If cycle really finished, we now have huge energetic gap due to almost year long downtrend. This energetic gap will be creating enormous pressure on this uptrend and once it breaks, it will be vicious. Such a strong and long lasting trends usually have at least 50% retracement, so even if we make it to 1,34, we will see 1,268 pretty soon.

But the hard part right now is, to "be one with the market". If new cycle is starting and we really have formed low on 24.7, we may be starting consolidation, because view of the new cycle is not set yet. Such a consolidation may last for half a year, be trianguloid and inlude 80% retracements. Or, it may as well make such a spike as in 2009 (but I dont think this is the case). So, imo anything can happen right now and wise man would a) be flat b) midterm following news (thats what I am trying to do). So you may witness my live test of mid term trading right now. Never done it , so wish me luck.

I think one of the most important zones right now is 2957-3009 on monthly close, which will come in two weeks. I am really very interested where this month closes, but hope it will be above (btw, thats why I went long yesterday, because I wanted this zone to cover my longs).

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,707
  • Sep 14, 2012 4:58am Sep 14, 2012 4:58am
Quoting Thijs
Is you scuba-gear for sale @E-bay ?
Hehehe, I may need it soon. This really may be consolidation before start of new cycle. It is quite hard to decipher precise start and finish low of cycles, as these points are usually blurred in consolidation patterns, so cycles are starting like half a year. So this "fkin bull" really is not typical starting pattern. Unfortunately, and this idea kinda scares me, it seems like a volatility pattern (read retracements @ 70%, up, down, up, down, crash, war). I hope this aint happening. One really needs to watch news to survive in consolidation between cycles.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,708
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:00am Sep 14, 2012 5:00am
Do i understand correctly thatI by targeting the MBS market the treasuries are left untouched and this is what is causing pretty strong yield increases in the 10y right now?

If so, then USDJPY rise makes perfect strength and this should also put somesort of downside stop to dollar decline.

any comments ?
  • #54,709
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:07am Sep 14, 2012 5:07am
Quoting lumesh
Do i understand correctly thatI by targeting the MBS market the treasuries are left untouched and this is what is causing pretty strong yield increases in the 10y right now?

If so, then USDJPY rise makes perfect strength and this should also put somesort of downside stop to dollar decline.

any comments ?
Yes you are correct on the treasuries. I think I covered that already. Anyway for now only MBS will be purchased, but Benny did say that treasuries could be included in the future, which I assume to be January 2013.

In the meantime, we have 10 year US yields creeping up to 2% and if they cross that line, we should see capital piling back into US bonds thereby halting or at lease considerably slowing down the dollar decline.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,710
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:14am Sep 14, 2012 5:14am
I was talking to my friend about yesterdays action, and he said: "Back to the square one."

Thats exactly it. Back to subprime, back to mortgages. I have been joking yesterday, will they me Marked to Market?

Ofc they wont.

This is my post from 2011, when we were talking about expansion of FED balance sheet because of MBS. The problem is, those MBS FED buys, are settled in accounting value, because otherwise, banks wouldnt get shit. This is how you clear shadow inventory, as we were talking with foto yesterday.

Chart included is old, but will start moving pretty soon.


Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Btw, while we are at this topic, last week I have read my favourite "Things that make you go Hmmm" by Grant Williams, he was speaking about an accounting law in US, which was forcing companies to use MTM valuation on their assets. This accounting law somehow diminished in mid of 2009 and since then FED started to buy MBS (mortgage backed securities) quite heavily.
T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,711
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:14am Sep 14, 2012 5:14am
That fugin Gap on CGB's chart is now closed.
  • #54,712
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:17am Sep 14, 2012 5:17am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes you are correct on the treasuries. I think I covered that already. Anyway for now only MBS will be purchased, but Benny did say that treasuries could be included in the future, which I assume to be January 2013.

In the meantime, we have 10 year US yields creeping up to 2% and if they cross that line, we should see capital piling back into US bonds thereby halting or at lease considerably slowing down the dollar decline.
aaight...


unbelieveable...no retrace what so ever

ohh well, i guess i should soon cover my loss...let's see if it gets above 3100
  • #54,713
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:19am Sep 14, 2012 5:19am
A cluster of 3 important FIBO levels at 1.31400 zone.
It makes me think that next week we will travel to touch that zone...

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Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #54,714
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:23am Sep 14, 2012 5:23am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes you are correct on the treasuries. I think I covered that already. Anyway for now only MBS will be purchased, but Benny did say that treasuries could be included in the future, which I assume to be January 2013.

In the meantime, we have 10 year US yields creeping up to 2% and if they cross that line, we should see capital piling back into US bonds thereby halting or at lease considerably slowing down the dollar decline.
I find this topic really interesting...but just why exactly does rising US yields equate with rising USD/JPY? Is it because selling US bonds happens due to risk-on sentiment, a sentiment which also brings about a selling of safe haven Yen and so USD/Yen rises?
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #54,715
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:26am Sep 14, 2012 5:26am
IMO: London will put the top in and US will sell us back down to maybe 1.3.

Friday is profit taking day, I think
"Don't Panic..."
  • #54,716
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:29am Sep 14, 2012 5:29am
Quoting Halifax
IMO: London will put the top in and US will sell us back down to maybe 1.3.

Friday is profit taking day, I think
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #54,717
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:36am Sep 14, 2012 5:36am
Quoting CommercialB
I hope you're not too badly underwater

I'm not shorting, of course, just waiting for a retrace to get in on next week.
"Don't Panic..."
  • #54,718
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:40am Sep 14, 2012 5:40am
What was Cgb saying about those toilet paper S/R?. This time, mine very heavy ressistance held for 9 hours. I cant believe we still dont have retracement since we broke it, but daily looks scarry.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,719
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:41am Sep 14, 2012 5:41am
Quoting Halifax
I hope you're not too badly underwater

I'm not shorting, of course, just waiting for a retrace to get in on next week.
Thanks ... been scouring Ebay for Tom's scuba gear goin cheap but no luck yet! Anyway, all part of the learning experience..some of us need to be bashed over the head a few times before anything sinks in ...I'm one of them! But learning here from you guys and it makes me all the more determined going forward not to make same mistakes twice (well, er, at least not so often!)
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #54,720
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:48am Sep 14, 2012 5:48am
Good morning guys.

Crude at $1000, US dollar below 79, the May gap is closed and we're about to hit 1.3100

Still no end in sight.

We're now at support on USX at 78.815, will this offer some kind of support?

Best of luck to all!
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I observe your reality but live my own.
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