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  • #691,981
  • Sep 13, 2012 9:18pm Sep 13, 2012 9:18pm
Quoting almo
Couldn't tell you - unfortunately, the flip side to all of this is what is going on in the EZ.


Safe bet - 600 pips to the upside.

And......if this QE3 doesn't work.....we could end up breaching the all time high of the Euro.
Haveu take3n into account the bond buying program of Draghi, 100s of billions of Euro he is going to print.... lets see wht happens once 78 of dollar index holds...
  • #691,982
  • Sep 13, 2012 9:21pm Sep 13, 2012 9:21pm
we are 400pips higher than last thursday's london close...
Draghi, QE, or not... this is too high too quick to me.
  • #691,983
  • Sep 13, 2012 9:22pm Sep 13, 2012 9:22pm
Quoting B_Prasad
Haveu take3n into account the bond buying program of Draghi, 100s of billions of Euro he is going to print.... lets see wht happens once 78 of dollar index holds...
There's a significant difference....EZ has an apparent balance to the buying/printing, where the US appears to have this magical ability to print out of thin air.


I wouldn't trust that dollar index - the only thing holding it there is the fear of what will happen when it breaks.
  • #691,984
  • Sep 13, 2012 9:25pm Sep 13, 2012 9:25pm
Quoting divak
we are 400pips higher than last thursday's london close...
Draghi, QE, or not... this is too high too quick to me.
Yes...I agree , a pullback *should* happen.


Just the same - I wouldn't consider this a time to start a massive short campaign. If anything, now you have some solid evidence that its the precise time to be going long for the long haul. Maybe the Euro isn't an appropriate choice given all the EZ crap. Cable? Yen?
  • #691,985
  • Sep 13, 2012 9:28pm Sep 13, 2012 9:28pm
Quoting almo
Yes...I agree , a pullback *should* happen.


Just the same - I wouldn't consider this a time to start a massive short campaign. If anything, now you have some solid evidence that its the precise time to be going long for the long haul. Maybe the Euro isn't an appropriate choice given all the EZ crap. Cable? Yen?
euro has nothing to do here. People are smoking smthg... lol
no, i just think the big guys who cleaned up the market down in may are the same lifting this up.
fundamentally, tell me good news about EZ. Draghi's plan? yes. So what? Italy, Spain, Greece are still all in big trouble whatever the amount printed by ECB.

Germany and France are showing signs they will be in recession. If guys want buy on this, no problem, i will be on the other side
  • #691,986
  • Sep 13, 2012 9:30pm Sep 13, 2012 9:30pm
Quoting divak
euro has nothing to do here. People are smoking smthg... lol
no, i just think the big guys who cleaned up the market down in may are the same lifting this up.
fundamentally, tell me good news about EZ. Draghi's plan? yes. So what? Italy, Spain, Greece are still all in big trouble whatever the amount printed by ECB.

Germany and France are showing signs they will be in recession. If guys want buy on this, no problem, i will be on the other side
That's all well and good.....I think you said your Uncle point was 1.31?
  • #691,987
  • Sep 13, 2012 9:32pm Sep 13, 2012 9:32pm
Quoting almo
There's a significant difference....EZ has an apparent balance to the buying/printing, where the US appears to have this magical ability to print out of thin air.


I wouldn't trust that dollar index - the only thing holding it there is the fear of what will happen when it breaks.
yes agreed, but fiscal conditions in EZ aint better than US, and with negative growth u expect Euro to scale new highs? I can understand a short term rally, but new highs without the support of fundamentals, i rather doubt it. Lets see we will have the answer from the market....
  • #691,988
  • Sep 13, 2012 9:33pm Sep 13, 2012 9:33pm
Quoting divak
RSI on daily is way way overbought, 1.30 is a psychological level.
I would be really surprised to find buyers above 1.30...
In my opinion, contrarian indicators like momentum oscillators like the slow stochastics or RSI and sentiment indicators like the put/call ratio are only useful during retracements, not trends.

On the other hand, we've already had a run and the QE3 news has already come out.
  • #691,989
  • Sep 13, 2012 9:33pm Sep 13, 2012 9:33pm
Quoting almo
That's all well and good.....I think you said your Uncle point was 1.31?
yep 1.31 though i may add funding to raise it to 1.32, not sure.
  • #691,990
  • Sep 13, 2012 9:35pm Sep 13, 2012 9:35pm
Quoting clambill
In my opinion, contrarian indicators like momentum oscillators like the slow stochastics or RSI and sentiment indicators like the put/call ratio are only useful during retracements, not trends.

On the other hand, we've already had a run and the QE3 news has already come out.
as i said before, we are 400pips higher than last thursday's London close...
think about it
  • #691,991
  • Sep 13, 2012 9:37pm Sep 13, 2012 9:37pm
Quoting almo
Yes...I agree , a pullback *should* happen.


Just the same - I wouldn't consider this a time to start a massive short campaign. If anything, now you have some solid evidence that its the precise time to be going long for the long haul. Maybe the Euro isn't an appropriate choice given all the EZ crap. Cable? Yen?
kiwi. looks good to me, just broke above a weekly DTL. I am already in with 4 stakes. (more luck than anything else)

Can get to 0.8840 tough.
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #691,992
  • Edited 10:02pm Sep 13, 2012 9:43pm | Edited 10:02pm
Quoting divak
my daily RSI on EURUSD shows 78.9... clearly overbought territory...
last time it was that high was in May 3rd 2011 @ 75.2

Would be logical to see a reversal, to 1.2640 area or at least 1.2750.
If not, i expect the pair to go sideways for a few weeks
The market has been instill with the belief/old thinking that RSI/STOCH above 70/80 are overbought, oversold sign etc, but this sort of delayed indicators does not help the trader to make correct decision on price. And because of these market analyst/writers they are teaching retailers the wrong thing, this is not how price is move. Price is moved on live, technical analysis as i repeated over and over again, is only meant for RISK CONTROL.

in fact:-> during time u see a candle suddenly very long and closed above former resistance, is a a sign of breakout, the RSI can maintain between 65-85 and its a continuation of strong trend, not overbought, those shorters suddenly see rsi above 80 jump in to short a breakout are jumping early, i mean if u are shorting on lower tf like 5,15 or even 30 or even 1 hour. But instead those 70-80 was a very good sign of strong bull.Buy resistance, sell support.



yes u can use rsi/stoch if volume does not supercedes the range, u are effective to use it in a consolidation phase, but not above its breakout point.

1) First time price hit 1.2935+ area, we saw the bounce, offers still stands
2) 2nd time it hit 1.2930 ytd, - More sellers add to that level as supply

3rd time/4th? its likely to crack/break

I think that it was obvious that technical is there to help us identify risk control, and not picking top/bottom, if we have 1.2935 as earlier top, i won't place stop loss for a sell more than 5-10 pips away from there, because after resistance is broken, its further buy stops, making your former resistance a support level. If price don't go under that resistance level and rejected, if consolidated on that range 30/40 and continuation up as we seen ytd on fomc, is a sign the previous offers is weaken.


But as i mentioned before, if price is returned and hit several times, the probability of it being there as supply/demand get weaker, why?
1) The offers/supply may not exist anymore - they have make breakeven/trail forward, 1 less margin.
2) The limits sellers may also takes profits. ->
3) Trend breakout -> this is live trading at anytime, they are main mover as we observed over and over again, when the volume comes in they take out as resistance/support in that particular favor direction. QE3 apparently helped to further boost it, the entire market rallied against USD, with gold leading infront.

across board, USD buyers suddenly become much lesser, across pairs across board, further sell/buy stops are activated. Not to forget about stop losses! as well, one less bear in this tug of war.

The 1. 2 time of demand we seen has become weaker or demand on USD/CAD on its pin, we saw how usd/cad dropped from 0.99 into 0.96++, so are we picking a correct reversal? And also USD/CHF, how it fail over and over from 0.99

One of the few key why did daily chart jump up from 1.2000 into 1.300 very quickly lies on a very simple outlook, but many do not know, because they are not seeing candles, and understanding how it closed, where are the resistance turns support, etc etc.

Price action is the fastest,

expect 1.2941/60 to turn into support now. seller can consider to drop there partial before continuation, as we already know every resistance has turned into support.

ytd 1.2882 served well, the spike down to 1.2855 during FOMC was just sell the news effect and it maintained above 1.2882 before continuation of upward moves.

When a seller is wrong, they tend to get out when price is retraced back to resistance turns support, to get cut loss, this u are short of 1 seller, the seller can also become a buyer -> Not to forget that during high volatility trading, everyone follows the tier one banks movement, the consolidated support area was only a jam up money by the big boys to prevent it from falling, with fundamental on the side of the bull... why we are not following the smart money. More stop losses/margin calls of shorters are hit lately as well, the bull run will not stop until a certain retracement has been met. Therefore jumping too quickly can be a killer, just look at MACD mountain, did it ever cross back 0? on hour4 or daily? no?

only an obvious engulfing/shooting star/hanging man or anything that looks bearish can signify the good reversal here, i haven't seen any of them on daily/weekly/monthly. So shorters are actually taking an early sell ever since from 1.2650 until now. How many under-water? how many hits margin call? if stop loss is not used properly.
  • #691,993
  • Sep 13, 2012 9:45pm Sep 13, 2012 9:45pm
Quoting divak
yep 1.31 though i may add funding to raise it to 1.32, not sure.
Sorry, I do not get it, why are you buying something that nobody want it?

Yes you could be right at the end, but it is bloody expensive this way in my view not only financially but also in psychological way.

Sorry, mine is meant to be a constructive criticism that may give you a different view, to me it seem that you care more to be right then anything else.

Wouldn't be better to make the money while she is going up and then make more the way down?

I hope it helps a bit.

EDIT: I am off to lunch, today it is friday and I am having a kebab

I see you @ Frankie.
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #691,994
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:00pm Sep 13, 2012 10:00pm
Quoting clambill
In my opinion, contrarian indicators like momentum oscillators like the slow stochastics or RSI and sentiment indicators like the put/call ratio are only useful during retracements, not trends.

On the other hand, we've already had a run and the QE3 news has already come out.
very correct, why trader cannot think critically of what is happening and not thinking its oversold like in may/ then overbought like now, trade what you see, i doubt many thinking traders who are so influenced by delayed indicators actually takes the buy when it breaks above 1.2940 -> former resistance, but apparently it had ran up 60 pips ytd, and that was trend/breakout within 1-2hour movements, and those limits of buy from 1.2881/2 made more than 100 pips within a short period of time.
  • #691,995
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:08pm Sep 13, 2012 10:08pm
Pre Uncle Ben's printing press...i mean QE3 ann. Couple of German/UK FX strategists with big euro players were jibbering on Bloomberg that if you correlate Euro/USD to the key Bond rates (France, Italy, Spain) that the Super Mario ann. last week and subsequent reduction of borrowing cost combined with Uncle Ben's ann last night (which they underestimated) meant they had a value of 1.32 on the Euro as it stands now.

These are the same two guys who called 1.22 when it was 1.27 a wee while back.

I still laugh myself at the rallies on wall street and europe in celebration that we have now deployed a much bigger defiblirator than this time 6 months ago.....with US election, Greece sinking deeper and deeper and China beginning to slow.....the good news is....irrespective of 1.32 or 1.22 there will be plenty of action to play
  • #691,996
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:15pm Sep 13, 2012 10:15pm
Quoting 5percent
The market has been instill with the belief/old thinking that RSI/STOCH above 70/80 are overbought, oversold sign etc, but this sort of delayed indicators does not help the trader to make correct decision on price. And because of these market analyst/writers they are teaching retailers the wrong thing, this is not how price is move. Price is moved on live, technical analysis as i repeated over and over again, is only meant for RISK CONTROL.

in fact:-> during time u see a candle suddenly very long and closed above former resistance, is...
thanks for this post.
i agree with lots of what u said but what bothers me is that during the recent rally we havent seen much retrace/rebound on resistances...
U can take a look again if you want, there is no serious retrace, nothing more than 50pips...
so i still believe this is pumped, as in many cases Resistances were instantly converted into supports....

EDIT: i would a retrace to 1.2960 as logical if willing to go higher, but i can bet here that i wont happen.
look at the graph now, people just have converted the 1.3007 R into a S....
  • #691,997
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:19pm Sep 13, 2012 10:19pm
Quoting Mike8
kiwi. looks good to me, just broke above a weekly DTL. I am already in with 4 stakes. (more luck than anything else)

Can get to 0.8840 tough.
It seems to me that whatever trades u take are always in the right direction. So either you are a market insider or you are warren buffet. so you have to tell me do you get any wrong trades at all
  • #691,998
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:26pm Sep 13, 2012 10:26pm
Quoting divak
my daily RSI on EURUSD shows 78.9... clearly overbought territory...
last time it was that high was in May 3rd 2011 @ 75.2

Would be logical to see a reversal, to 1.2640 area or at least 1.2750.
If not, i expect the pair to go sideways for a few weeks
You mean EU should fall now because RSI is @ 78.9??? Thats simple LOL!!!
Fall seven times, stand up Eight! #GGMU
  • #691,999
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:28pm Sep 13, 2012 10:28pm
Quoting vickym
You mean EU should fall now because RSI is @ 78.9??? Thats simple LOL!!!
sorry yes, i was wrong. It's at 78.9 and we are 400 pips up on 6 trading days. It should go higher.
Thanks for correcting me
  • #692,000
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:28pm Sep 13, 2012 10:28pm
Quoting almo
Why is that dumb?


12 months * 40 billion/month = massive USD Dillution.


Seems to me, you can buy anything vs USD right now, and come back in one year to massive profits.
it's infinity , not limited to 1 year
Mohan
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