USD/JPY Discussion

I suspected someone with high liquidity did prop the U/J up yesterday after the ESM announcement, and seems we have the exact same scenario here, fairly sure either the BoJ or a proxy of theirs has been doing some silent intervention.

anybody agree that we are reaching a price level that will trigger an intervention from the BOJ?

Only BOJ knows what level they will intervene, if this is your trade plan, you have a better odds in the casino.

They must of been on the bid yesterday I can't see any reason why the Usd/jpy didn't tank after the QE announcement

Simply because QE is already priced, remember we're down 200 pips since OMS announcement on Sept 6.

Yeah good point

Yeah, already also pointed that QE was mostly discounted and U/J is on really low lvls.

77.50 surrounding was probably the first area where Japanies (either BoJ or Goverment) were ready to intervate. The problem for Japan is that even though other pairs(GBP/JPY od EUR/JPY) are gaining hard and are getting ready to break major resistances, the U/J because of Dolar weakness is still at very low lvl. And USA is the most importantent trade partner for Japan, so the U/J is most important to them, which doesn't look good.

Technically we need to break out 77,66 first (2012. 06.01 low)

If we could close today above 77,82 or 78, it will be a trend reversal pattern on daily and weekly chart

Looks like the euro is more volatile than the yen

Looks like a strong reversal on U/J, need to wait for daily closure for some conformation, but closed my long from 77.58 at 78.30, may be resistance here, will wait and mayby rebuy after small correction of this strong movement or after breaking 78.30.

long positions are looking good at this moment, that seems like an intervention to me! and I base my plan with this pair on the fact that they have intervened in february to keep usdjpy above 76 , long looks good at this moment!

They do, and for all the Yen pairs. I made a mistake, instead of longing only UJ, I should have longed GU and EJ. All the yen pair, GU and EJ more, were bearish toward the Yen. In the long term, they are all going to be winners

Chart is looking good indeed (weekly bullish pinbar).

I must admit that I was a little confused with the fundamentals affecting this pair and how its reacting. I would normally associate US$ weakness with Yen strength,however when we take into consideration that this rally is actually a risk on rally, it starts becoming a little clearer why the Yen is actually losing value against the USD at the same time that the USD is taking a proper hammering everywhere else. The Yen IMO has been considered to have a higher priority than the USD when safety haven currencies are concerned, and thus is probably losing value due to Sls being triggered against the risk on pairs such as E/J and G/J .

So technically speaking if there is a retracement/correction or even a change of sentiment in the near future regarding risk on currencies, that should mean that the Yen will once again begin to appreciate as safe haven demand takes over again.... or will it?

I am more inclined to say that the Yen will not be appreciating even with a correction in the recent risk on rally,primarily because investors will be a little cautious about the state of the Japanese economy due to the high yen strength and the constant threats to intervene and possibly conduct their own version of QE, and also because the bulk of the Yen cross shorts were mostly against riskier currencies such as E/J,and regardless of what people want to think about the Euro ,the once very realistic threat of Eurogeddon has somewhat been pushed back a little and I dont believe we will see the same volume of E/J or G/J shorts as we did since the begining of the Euro crisis.

So my opinion is that we have formed a long term bottoming with upside momentum slowly building up with the U/J and confirmation of this from a fundamental perspective should come on Wednesday from the Japanese Monetary policy statement. Its difficult to imagine that the BoJ will sit back and do nothing to counter the Feds rather unorthodox move which will have very direct implications on the Japanese economy if they fail to counter it.

So yeah I am long on this pair from 78.09, wish I could have got in earlier at the lower 77 levels, but I failed to see the bigger picture and was actually convinced we would see the lower 76s before a move up.Well better late than never I guess.

In my previous preview on USDJPY, i mention of the possibility of Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervening the Yen FX markets. See link below.

http://www.forexmindgames.com/2012/0...ws-part-1.html

Thus far, nothing has happened yet. However, i believe the intervention is near. Remember that Central Bankers has political pressure to maintain the stability of their country's currency. Japan is a mainly export country. Think Sony, Toyota, Toshiba and Honda. Japan is a country which relies strongly on their exports, they would prefer to keep their currency weak. When the Yen strengthen too much, high-ranking government officials will voice their displeasures through the media. It is them telling the currency speculators to get out of my turf.

http://i49.tinypic.com/zwj31h.png

When the same rhetoric such as:
"Watch out and get out of the way!! I am going to do something soon!!"

is repeated multiple times by the Japanese officials, the market is fore-warned. We are the retail traders. We do not have the financial muscles to go against the markets. In the forex ocean, we are the shrimps, and we follow the whales. If BOJ does intervene, watch for a 200-300pips USDJPY bullish spike in a single day.

http://i47.tinypic.com/30bk554.png

Potential intervention zone around 75.50-77.00. How to trade this intervention? Open a sub-account. Transfer a small amount of money to this sub-account. Highly important: you may need to hold this trade for weeks. So do ensure you have enough money in the sub-account to meet the weekend margin requirements.

Place a limit buy order anywhere from 75.50-77.00
Stop loss below 75.00
Target profit 80.00

http://i46.tinypic.com/vj61x.png

Since yen is at a 7 month high and the FED has launched QE3, the Bank of Japan will likely consider easing monetary policy on its next meeting (Sept 19).

According to Dow Jones Newswire BoJ has checked USD/JPY rates during NY session, which usually means they're about to intervene. Markets are on high alert because last time they did so, USDJPY rose 300 pips intraday.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49027963

I don't think that Japan will do a direct intervention after the friday, when Yen lost over 1,5 % and all the pair with with gained on strenght (E/J and G/J broken resistance levels), but the "Japanies QE" is still possible. Anyway on weekly, daily, 4h and 1h charts U/J looks like going for reversal, important lvl on the way are 78.80, 79.00 and most importent is around 79.50-60.

This is how I am going to play it , I agree with Haqu with the levels that he pointed out. I am long at 77.78 I am going to add some more at 79.10 targeting 79.60-70 if we break it , wich I think will happen, I will add some more and our next target should be 80.60-70. Breaking this level will clear the way to 84.

Regards.

no doubt, that someone took a big position and moved this pair higher protecting the 78 level

The USDJPY monthly chart is very interesting