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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #54,541
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:48am Sep 13, 2012 10:48am
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  • #54,542
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:49am Sep 13, 2012 10:49am
Quoting Wulfgar
Its more the message it sends with an open-ended policy rather than the amount...
True, but the printing press is only on half speed. Also since treasuries are not targeted in the asset purchase program, it won't be long before they hit 2% plus which will stop or at least slow down the dollar decline.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,543
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:49am Sep 13, 2012 10:49am
I hope everyone has stupidly buying up risk assets and schucking USD's for the last hour and a half?
  • #54,544
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:50am Sep 13, 2012 10:50am
well i have a busy day planned for tomorrow....i have ALOT of "mortage-backed" security documents to print up tomorrow.......goodnight all....
  • #54,545
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:50am Sep 13, 2012 10:50am
Quoting PipTrapper
True, but the printing press is only on half speed. Also since treasuries are not targeted in the asset purchase program, it won't be long before they hit 2% plus which will stop or at least slow down the dollar decline.
Agreed. Now the question will always be: "Is Ben going to include treasuries in the Asset Purchase program during this FOMC?"
  • #54,546
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:53am Sep 13, 2012 10:53am
Quoting Wulfgar
I hope everyone has stupidly buying up risk assets and schucking USD's for the last hour and a half?
LOL Not me. I'm still a Euro Bear. Three legged stool my left butt cheek. Nothing has changed in Europe other than more debt to pay debt. QE3 or not, the situation in Europe is still dire. I may have to start shorting EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,547
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:54am Sep 13, 2012 10:54am
Quoting PipTrapper
Well at least now the risk-on / risk-off paradigm can get back to normal operation.

Bad data = sell Euro
Good data = Buy Euro

You think so? When? Obviously the BB are looking at a target. It has to make a correction and get back to normal per se.
  • #54,548
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:55am Sep 13, 2012 10:55am
Quoting PipTrapper
LOL Not me. I'm still a Euro Bear. Three legged stool my left butt cheek. Nothing has changed in Europe other than more debt to pay debt. QE3 or not, the situation in Europe is still dire. I may have to start shorting EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD
I agree... been shorting those turds for awhile now...

The EUR/USD will probably just carve out a big range as the central bankers try to out ease one another.
  • #54,549
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:55am Sep 13, 2012 10:55am
Quoting Wulfgar
Agreed. Now the question will always be: "Is Ben going to include treasuries in the Asset Purchase program during this FOMC?"
If he does, it will not be until Jan 2013
The rate statement is out and published. That's all we get. The press conference is redundant now.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,550
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:56am Sep 13, 2012 10:56am
PT.... hmmmm I am glad we did not bet the farm on our 1.2800-1.2750 lol
  • #54,551
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:56am Sep 13, 2012 10:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
only $40 bln is unsterilized.
Y. Need to keep in mind we now officially have two very different Empty Boxes in EU, worth almost 1 Tril. And they will need to use them. I really am very surprised with evolution of events as I wasnt prepared to change all my charts. It will take a while.

Also, even if bearish cycle was finishing, that was so massive downtrend it will still have impacts on larger timescale (for example because of pressure on European export + debt). We were down here for a reason.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,552
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:57am Sep 13, 2012 10:57am
Quoting PipTrapper
True, but the printing press is only on half speed. Also since treasuries are not targeted in the asset purchase program, it won't be long before they hit 2% plus which will stop or at least slow down the dollar decline.
HOD is only 7 pips high than the initial knee jerk. PA is not showing the euphoria I expected on an announcement of QE3 and is now slowing down. Markets are obviously popping open the bottles of champagne, but they make wake up tomorrow to a hang over. I'm not saying this rally is over on E/U, but we may now see our long overdue correction.

Just a thought....
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #54,553
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:58am Sep 13, 2012 10:58am
Quoting TRMZXT
You think so? When? Obviously the BB are looking at a target. It has to make a correction and get back to normal per se.
The equity markets just broke above a 4 year high. How long do you think that will continue without a supporting real economy?
Besides, there are still many risks ahead with Europe. QE or no QE, it will soon be profit taking time unless you're buying gold.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,554
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:01am Sep 13, 2012 11:01am
Quoting Cgb
HOD is only 7 pips high than the initial knee jerk. PA is not showing the euphoria I expected on an announcement of QE3 and is now slowing down. Markets are obviously popping open the bottles of champagne, but they make wake up tomorrow to a hang over. I'm not saying this rally is over on E/U, but we may now see our long overdue correction.

Just a thought....
I like your thought, but I think we should see at least 1.3000 before any correction. Hey I've been wrong about a few things lately so I could be wrong about that too.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,555
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:03am Sep 13, 2012 11:03am
Quoting TRMZXT
PT.... hmmmm I am glad we did not bet the farm on our 1.2800-1.2750 lol
The week's not over yet
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,556
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:03am Sep 13, 2012 11:03am
I'm betting Ben bought EURUSD at 1.21xx and is now laughing at all of us.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #54,557
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:05am Sep 13, 2012 11:05am
Quoting PipTrapper
I like your thought, but I think we should see at least 1.3000 before any correction. Hey I've been wrong about a few things lately so I could be wrong about that too.
Thats the top of the breakout range I got

I think I posted a few days back there is the very real possibility if the 3072 goes of the 3329 and 3728... Obviously on the back of USD weakness with QE infinity now in our laps


Im stiill sitting on my hands till the 3072 is decided as far as placing positional trades. Till then its just swings and intraday channel breakout trading

Strange days my friends
  • #54,558
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:05am Sep 13, 2012 11:05am
Quoting aeternum
I'm betting Ben bought EURUSD at 1.21xx and is now laughing at all of us.
Yep... here he is with his trademark closed mouth laugh

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/...rnanke-006.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,559
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:06am Sep 13, 2012 11:06am
We are entering heavy monthly ressistance zone 2957 - 3009. I hope it breaks, but we may as well stop somwhere in the mid.

T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,560
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:09am Sep 13, 2012 11:09am
Quoting PipTrapper
LOL Not me. I'm still a Euro Bear. Three legged stool my left butt cheek. Nothing has changed in Europe other than more debt to pay debt. QE3 or not, the situation in Europe is still dire. I may have to start shorting EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD
Been watching those pairs for a while still have doubt to short right now. Let's know when you decide to short PT.
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