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USD/CAD

  • #3,301
  • Sep 12, 2012 3:10pm Sep 12, 2012 3:10pm
Quoting RWalker
About an hour ago, did anyone short the UTL (from last week)?

This pair never seems to know where it's going unless it's making a beeline for your stops! The little bastard is trying to pretend it's gonna turn down again at around R1 now... I doubt that. It's probably looking for some more short suckers to enter right about now.

Ah yes... U/C is trying soooo hard to get above R1, but it's too weak! ...that is until you go for a short scalp. THEN, it'll rip your face off.
  • #3,302
  • Sep 12, 2012 3:12pm Sep 12, 2012 3:12pm
Quoting wolve
Well for a start BB did give some strong hints about QE if the economic indicators don't turn during his Jackson Hole speech. Apart from that here is the summary on the last meeting minutes:

[i]Key points from the minutes are summarized as follows:
Many on FOMC favored easing soon if no sustained growth pickup.
Many participants saw new QE as bolstering U.S. recovery.
Discussed QE, extending 2014 forecast on rate.
Markets have large capacity to handle more QE.
Long-term inflation expectations stable. Mid-term inflation at or below 2%...
hmmm... good points!
  • #3,303
  • Sep 12, 2012 6:41pm Sep 12, 2012 6:41pm
I think the stimulus speculation is well priced into the U/C. I think we'll see a form of QE simply as a show of Fed "support" (even though it fundamentally shouldn't change anything)... Likely pushing the U/C moderately lower.

If you're in it for the biggest move... then I would be betting on no QE and a strong bullish correction. But if I had to choose, I'd be going short for less pips into the FOMC announcement.
  • #3,304
  • Sep 13, 2012 12:51am Sep 13, 2012 12:51am
2 trades already in profit.My Ichimoku is lining up nicely.
For long position
Kijun Sen (blue line) must be under Tenkan Sen (red line)
and the Cloud s/r under PA
As you can see all there
I have become real fan of Ichimoku indicator specially the cloud (kumo).Its very uncanny how accurately lines up with S/R levels.
True s/r is not a straight line (western concept) but its more fluid and has little valleys just like the kumo cloud.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadfib.gif Size: 19 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,305
  • Sep 13, 2012 8:55am Sep 13, 2012 8:55am
As after about 3-4 hours the important data of FOMC will come out , what do you guess pushing up or down ucad?
  • #3,306
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:50am Sep 13, 2012 11:50am
Added 4 more longs total 8 Longs
Fed News was not much of a news.
Longs 2x9760 9742 9725

My aim is short term 98
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,307
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:54am Sep 13, 2012 11:54am
Quoting Davit
Added 4 more longs total 8 Longs
Fed News was not much of a news.
Longs 2x9760 9742 9725

My aim is short term 98
It is going down more than up, are you sure it will go up?
  • #3,308
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:58am Sep 13, 2012 11:58am
People really need to understand fundamentals before trading... Fed just announced they will be printing more dollars till employment does not get better... this is extremely dovish... I would not long the Ucad pair.
  • #3,309
  • Sep 13, 2012 12:20pm Sep 13, 2012 12:20pm
Closed my longs with hefty losses.
Missed the part that Fed said they will continuously provide QE until economy recovers.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,310
  • Sep 13, 2012 12:25pm Sep 13, 2012 12:25pm
Quoting Davit
Closed my longs with hefty losses.
Missed the part that Fed said they will continuously provide QE until economy recovers.
Hi Davit,

I have been where you are before... I know it hurts taking a loss but this should only make your resolve to learn fundamentals even greater. How do you follow the news? Remember technicals and fundamentals go hand in hand...
  • #3,311
  • Sep 13, 2012 12:28pm Sep 13, 2012 12:28pm
Quoting Davit
Closed my longs with hefty losses.
Missed the part that Fed said they will continuously provide QE until economy recovers.

I feel your pain man. I can only imagine how much you are down. What did you close out at?
  • #3,312
  • Sep 13, 2012 1:08pm Sep 13, 2012 1:08pm
BLOOD in the streets
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #3,313
  • Sep 13, 2012 1:36pm Sep 13, 2012 1:36pm
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
The fundamentals (rising oil prices and US QE3 announcement today certainly help) and the technicals (at least in the time frames that I look at) tell me to stay with the major bear trend of this pair and maintain my short USD/CAD position heading towards a target of 0.9475 which is roughly the lows of last summer.

I'm afraid I don't see the rational for taking long positions at this point, not even for a scalp.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #3,314
  • Sep 13, 2012 3:56pm Sep 13, 2012 3:56pm
Quoting wolve
People really need to understand fundamentals before trading... Fed just announced they will be printing more dollars till employment does not get better... this is extremely dovish... I would not long the Ucad pair.

The issue with loading on the shorts... A tonne of traders have been pricing in QE. We saw the expected moderate move down (a solid 100 pips, and settling around 70 pips at .9680 - which btw, is historically a very strong R/S level).

Now that the QE is 100% priced in (or close to). A trader now needs to look forward to the next market mover. I would argue longs actually start to make sense now. We should see continued recovery in US housing and manufacturing, bolstered by positive consumer confidence from the Fed's actions. Companies have TONNES of cash on the sidelines, banks have tonnes of liquidity, and this Fed support may just be the psychological push the US economy needed. On the flip side... the fiscal cliff will come more into focus now, which could put a rather negative spin on the economic recovery too.


What it means... I'm profit taking my shorts. I'll be looking for long opportunities if the sentiment quickly shifts negative on EU or Fiscal Cliff talk. Range trading for the next few days could be quite profitable.
  • #3,315
  • Sep 13, 2012 10:08pm Sep 13, 2012 10:08pm
America the land of poverty and corruption LOL SELL SELL SELL
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #3,316
  • Sep 13, 2012 11:56pm Sep 13, 2012 11:56pm
http://www.forex-nawigator.biz/dysku...d.php?id=67680
  • #3,317
  • Sep 14, 2012 5:37am Sep 14, 2012 5:37am
When this bullshit goes up?
  • #3,318
  • Sep 14, 2012 6:49am Sep 14, 2012 6:49am
Who cares? Sell low, buy lower. Set take profits just above 2011 lows.
  • #3,319
  • Sep 14, 2012 9:39am Sep 14, 2012 9:39am
Went long again this time little more confident.
Market obviously rejected any lower.Fact that while Euro kept rising so did Cad says a lot.
Euro went 30 to 3160 and during this period last 12hrs Cad actually went higher!
So this is my clue that we hit bottom in short term..
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,320
  • Sep 14, 2012 10:25am Sep 14, 2012 10:25am
  •  KADC
  • Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Be unreasonable. | 897 Posts | Online Now
Since even terrible retroactive Canadian economic news was unable to move the Loonie more than a 40 pips off its steady downward march, and with yet another oil refinery shut down in Texas not to mention more trouble in the Middle East putting the near-term consensus for WTI at $105, the bear trend is clearly continuing so I took advantage of this minor pull-back to add to my short position.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
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