EurAnalysis

The party pooper is back at it


Germany’s Schaueble:
- Don’t count on the ECB for an easy way out
- An ESM boost would require approval of the German Parliament (as the Constitutional Court said earlier today)

Piptrapper.

What do you suppose would be the reaction in the market if the Fed chooses to not initiate QE3 but instead extend guidance for low interest rates? Would it be similar to USD positive no QE3 reaction or would it be more of a neutral effect.

thanks PT! I went and walked to the beach. lol

its just funny how these central bankers ignore what has and is happening in a large economy like japans and they think it wont happen if they do the same thing. Lunacy.

Much has been priced in on more unsterilized bond purchases (targeting Mortgaged Backed Securities mainly)being announced. IF the fed disappoints and all they announce is extended ZIRP then there will certainly be a correction as the Bond markets strengthen and therefore strengthens demand for USD's

For the major move(downside OR upside) to continue watch for capitulation and liquidation in the markets coupled with a major fundamental shift.

We may or may not get that exact thing tommorow. Till then Im just doing intraday work personally and trading tech PA during major market open/closes(primarily LO)

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Albert Einstein

Hi, I'm glad babypips.com helped. But I'm pretty certain the retrace was entirely unexpected because it occured just before a news event. This same method may not work again but then again, we're in crazy times! Luckily its demo!

Bb, tomorrow.

. I see him everywhere.

T

"ECB bond buying program put in place? Check.
German Constitutional Court approves ESM with minimal conditions? Check.
The last leg of this three-legged stool comes around midday tomorrow when the FOMC announces its monetary policy decision after a two-day meeting.
At a minimum, the market expects the Fed to push back its forecast for a first rate hike (so-called “forward guidance”) until mid-2015. Most see a move to an opened ended QE program with perhaps a mix of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.
Just adjusting the guidance while announcing no new QE should see a surge in the dollar and a sell-off in risk."

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/0...own-one-to-go/

Thanks... I was about to post that.

No problem. I was bored

Q: It's 4pm on Wall St. Do you know where you money is?

A: Yep, it's in USD cash... God help me.

Good night everybody.
zzzzz

Tomorrow is the day. This will be used on either my shorts or on me

See 'ya tomorrow (or maybe later tonight)

Will be sleeping on these thoughts.
Central banks have been living testaments to ideologicaly driven policy making. Fantasy Land is the phrase some have applied.

Today we actually got some pragmatic approaches coming out of Germany.
Their Constitutional court stayed within the spirit of Democracy but allowed for enough ESM support so as not to crash the markets.
The question arises are Governments and Central bankers experencing an enlightenment?
Is it possible they will start applying policy to produce results in the real world? If that is the case then what comes out of the FOMC may actually be reality based.

Policies aimed at reinvigorating the US housing market and getting business loans moving again would take center stage. Not just the same old, same old QE which ends up as nonactive dead money on some banks balance sheet.

Where are the clues as to what the market thinks is going on.
Gold rallied sharply then came right on back down. If the market is expecting more QE Gold should have stayed up. (perhaps second thoughts brought it back down, but if everyone is so sure of another massive stimulus package up is where Gold should have stayed)

EURO/USD has experienced no retrace even though it is wildly overbought on the 4 hour and is actually breaking out of the top side of its upper channel line. But why should it stop at 1.2900 when 1.30 is so close? Yet it had every opportunity to go higher today and the best it did was stay where it was all through the US session.

With such a powerful run, to change direction would require a break of the uptrendline and at least one test of the high, before it turned and started moving down. So far orders are hardly appearing at all to offer the EURO just a buying frenzy.

1.2820 prior resistance turned support.
1.2820 just about the 200 sma daily

Maybe someone else with a fresh mind is willing to pick up on this line of thought, time for sleep for me.

I got booted from this forum for posting an indicator trade. Never again. SnD better . I would like to stay and contribute today H4 CHART 4:05 am est PRIOR TO News.

I know that I do not know but offer these thoughts. I toss all news it means nothing to me as I am too feeble and to far dow to have it make a difference. In all its opinion and perception that moves markets. So rather than poll the audience I watch PA and follow the whales where they poop I poop where the eat I eat. Just like the pilot fish I am too small to swim alone bright enough to stay close to the animal with few predators

Extreme values for Daily. The more these values are up the more sign of exhaution of the PA. Another 100 pips up would make the values exhausted for continuous buyers.

http://finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx

Period: day | week | month | quarter | half year | year | year to datehttp://finviz.com/gfx/nic2x2.gifhttp://finviz.com/fut_image.ashx?rel...30920189646250http://finviz.com/gfx/nic2x2.gif

avoir la niaque!

we "might" have a top. will need to break 75

Good morning everyone

Today is the big day. It is the day we all find out if the Fed has decided to destroy the US Dollar through a third large scale asset purchase program, also known as QE3.

The markets have been very hyped up about it and the anticipation has driven the US Dollar down to 4 month lows as risk assets have rallied to front run the liquidity injection.

My view is that Bernanke has been keeping the idea of "Further Action" on the table for a while now and for some reason the market has been interpreting that as "Further Asset Purchases" when even Bernanke himself said on every occasion that the Fed has a variety of tools available at its disposal. So why are they focused so much on asset purchases? It's quite simple really. It's what the market wants. QE1 and QE2 did wonders to prop up the markets and create the illusion that all is well again, but the facts tell a different story. QE1 and QE2 as well as the Operation Twist program that followed (A sterilized version of QE where no new liquidity is injected into the markets) did a good job in stabilizing the US economy. However, now that interest rates are near zero, I fail to see how another round of asset purchases is going to make the conditions any better than they already are. This is why I don't believe it will happen. It simply makes no sense as it will only serve to further debase the US Dollar and do nothing to increase business and consumer confidence. That is now a job for congress, not the Fed.

So what should we expect? There are a few options here.

1. Extend the forward guidance for the first anticipated rate hike from Late 2014 to Early 2015

2. Change the target of the current Operation Twist program to one based on GDP and/or unemployment rather than one based on a specific date and/or dollar amount

3. Further communication suggesting that the Fed stands ready to take "Further Action" should the economy take a turn for the worse.

4. A combination of any of the above.

Of course the Fed could really surprise me here and announce QE3, but based on all the anticipation that has built up, such a program is already mostly priced in and therefore should not surprise the markets all that much. If there is to be a market surprise, it will likely be more so that QE3 does not come. If that happens, I expect to see the USD bid right back up as equities take a downturn on profit taking and capital flows back into US bonds.

Anyway, I guess it's time to buckle my seat belt and wait. As I mentioned yesterday, the technicals will be pretty much useless in determine probable direction and can only serve as a tool to determine one's best possible entry. In the end, it is the rate statement that will determine where we go from here. However, it is worth noting that yesterday price stopped square on the 61.8% fibo retrace of the move down from the 2012 high to low (1.3485 - 1.2041). So, today this will be the battle ground.

Best of luck today and trade safe

E/U Daily