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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #31,381
  • Sep 12, 2012 9:58am Sep 12, 2012 9:58am
Quoting Ziko9o8
- I'm already in, but 77.95 cap us every time we touch it.
I will wait tomorow to get in or latter on today.
Alternatives are more important than the plan itself
  • #31,382
  • Sep 12, 2012 10:17am Sep 12, 2012 10:17am
Quoting -Melo-
I will wait tomorow to get in or latter on today.
- If I was you, I can buy it for a discount just under 161.8%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj m15.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #31,383
  • Sep 12, 2012 10:38am Sep 12, 2012 10:38am
Quoting Ziko9o8
- If I was you, I can buy it for a discount just under 161.8%
there is no such thing as a discount. If the fed give more hint for QE3, this pair will keep on moving south, and i will be able to buy it at a even lower point or wait for the right moment. Plus dont forget we have the fiscal cliff.
Alternatives are more important than the plan itself
  • #31,384
  • Sep 12, 2012 12:34pm Sep 12, 2012 12:34pm
Quoting -Melo-
there is no such thing as a discount. If the fed give more hint for QE3, this pair will keep on moving south, and i will be able to buy it at a even lower point or wait for the right moment. Plus dont forget we have the fiscal cliff.
- Thank you Melo for adding a good fundamental point to my pure technical approach of understanding the markets.
  • #31,385
  • Sep 12, 2012 4:18pm Sep 12, 2012 4:18pm
Quoting Ziko9o8
- Thank you Melo for adding a good fundamental point to my pure technical approach of understanding the markets.
I also wanted to go long, but these 2 fact came up to my mind. Who know what will be the impact of the fiscal cliff this time
Alternatives are more important than the plan itself
  • #31,386
  • Sep 13, 2012 12:36am Sep 13, 2012 12:36am
http://community.nasdaq.com/News/201...storyid=172747
  • #31,387
  • Sep 13, 2012 5:14am Sep 13, 2012 5:14am
Quoting ts63
http://community.nasdaq.com/News/201...storyid=172747
i think it is less about levels but more about volatility, as long as price is hovering around slowly with low volatility it can easily go lower and they will not intervene, what BOJ makes angry are sharp drops with high volatility which then will trigger an intervention, otherwise air gets thiner for sellers anyway
  • #31,388
  • Sep 13, 2012 7:50am Sep 13, 2012 7:50am
Seems like another bad day for Azumi and the gang, 77.60 broken and FOMC statement still ahead of us. Yen is gaining crazy again.
  • #31,389
  • Sep 13, 2012 8:55am Sep 13, 2012 8:55am
Quoting Haqu
Seems like another bad day for Azumi and the gang, 77.60 broken and FOMC statement still ahead of us. Yen is gaining crazy again.
what ever will be the out come of the FOMC, i will long USD/JPY after that event. in the very long term, might have reach the lowest point of thee Year. If there is no QE, the size of the trade will be bigger than if they talk about QE. I will probably buy only 1 micro lot if they mention QE or the good effects of QE.

And guys, dont forget that if the Republican win the election, Bernanke will be fired, which will be verry bullish for the USD, and terrible for the Yen
Alternatives are more important than the plan itself
  • #31,390
  • Sep 13, 2012 9:06am Sep 13, 2012 9:06am
http://screencast.com/t/5TPJRvVWFNBV
  • #31,391
  • Sep 13, 2012 12:31pm Sep 13, 2012 12:31pm
" (4) the Japanese authorities may be expecting no QE3 from Fed on 13 September and thus no sustained downward pressure on USD/JPY."


Read more: http://community.nasdaq.com/News/201...#ixzz26N7huJRw

Poor Japs, for now FOMC statement isn't helping them too much...And we are under 77.50...

But still the press conference will tell us more.

  • #31,392
  • Sep 13, 2012 12:38pm Sep 13, 2012 12:38pm
"To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee agreed today to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturing of its holdings of securities as announced in June, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. These actions, which together will increase the Committee's holdings of longer term securities by about $85 billion each month through the end of the year, should put downward pressure on longer term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and to help make broader financial conditions more accommodative."

Source: Reuters

Best,
The friendly fish
  • #31,393
  • Sep 13, 2012 12:41pm Sep 13, 2012 12:41pm
Im wondering what caused USDJPY to surge upwards when FOMC announcement was made. It headed south shortly after but the explosive move up has me perplexed.
  • #31,394
  • Sep 13, 2012 12:53pm Sep 13, 2012 12:53pm
Quoting Zac
Im wondering what caused USDJPY to surge upwards when FOMC announcement was made. It headed south shortly after but the explosive move up has me perplexed.
japs interfered so it wont go down to 75 - 76 , they interfered same time fomc anouncement
  • #31,395
  • Sep 13, 2012 1:11pm Sep 13, 2012 1:11pm
Maybe a good time to go long???
  • #31,396
  • Sep 13, 2012 1:11pm Sep 13, 2012 1:11pm
Quoting fasy007
japs interfered so it wont go down to 75 - 76 , they interfered same time fomc anouncement
Don't think so - as i wrote some time ago, the QE was already mostly discounted by the market, and probably at the beggining of the statment people really didn't know what does it means and went long moving the pair up. If it was japanies work, they would hit stronger in my opinion.

Anyway we will see today, what new the will SAY about the intervention
  • #31,397
  • Sep 13, 2012 1:15pm Sep 13, 2012 1:15pm
There was a huge amount of volatility in the dollar denominated currencies following the statement release. The most interesting moves came in the dollar yen pair which traded higher shortly after the statement. This suggests traders had priced in much more QE and are disappointed in the announcement. (Alpari UK analyst).
  • #31,398
  • Sep 13, 2012 1:38pm Sep 13, 2012 1:38pm
Quoting ts63
There was a huge amount of volatility in the dollar denominated currencies following the statement release. The most interesting moves came in the dollar yen pair which traded higher shortly after the statement. This suggests traders had priced in much more QE and are disappointed in the announcement. (Alpari UK analyst).
no the most interesting one was in gold
Alternatives are more important than the plan itself
  • #31,399
  • Sep 13, 2012 1:42pm Sep 13, 2012 1:42pm
I longed at 77.45 stop loss at 74 for the long term. The fed didnt talk about QE3, but instead of new ways to better communicate with the public
Alternatives are more important than the plan itself
  • #31,400
  • Sep 13, 2012 2:22pm Sep 13, 2012 2:22pm
Yep, but still poping money into market, as stimulation, was bad for Dolar, which we can see on Dolar index, but still didn't hurt that much U/J. That makes me belive, that most of the fears of QE already feeded and mayby it is time for some bullish action on U/J
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