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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #54,321
  • Sep 12, 2012 10:52am Sep 12, 2012 10:52am
Quoting ProfitsOnly
Ask pt, he knows what "tech correction" im talking about
Yes that was a small TF tech correction.
We now need to see a larger correction on the daily.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,322
  • Sep 12, 2012 10:54am Sep 12, 2012 10:54am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Mate I keep on hearing about Japan lately. Dont you have some nice article I could read please?

T
Try this

http://homepage3.nifty.com/maryy/eng/restaurants.htm
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #54,323
  • Sep 12, 2012 10:56am Sep 12, 2012 10:56am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Mate I keep on hearing about Japan lately. Dont you have some nice article I could read please?

T
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deflation#In_Japan

and here's the key point. Similar to what the EZ banks are doing

Some banks made even more loans to these companies that are used to service the debt they already had. This continuing process is known as maintaining an "unrealized loss", and until the assets are completely revalued and/or sold off (and the loss realized), it will continue to be a deflationary force in the economy.

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,324
  • Sep 12, 2012 10:56am Sep 12, 2012 10:56am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Mate I keep on hearing about Japan lately. Dont you have some nice article I could read please?

T
Start with this 日本国
  • #54,325
  • Sep 12, 2012 10:59am Sep 12, 2012 10:59am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes that was a small TF tech correction.
We now need to see a larger correction on the daily.

Attachment
finding A M S
  • #54,326
  • Sep 12, 2012 11:00am Sep 12, 2012 11:00am
Thank you guys. Wiki ftw. Lol cgb , I have already eaten today, you wont get me.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,327
  • Sep 12, 2012 11:03am Sep 12, 2012 11:03am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Thank you guys. Wiki ftw. Lol cgb , I have already eaten today, you wont get me.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #54,328
  • Sep 12, 2012 11:06am Sep 12, 2012 11:06am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Thank you guys. Wiki ftw. Lol cgb , I have already eaten today, you wont get me.

Stimulus Spending: According to both Austrian and Monetarist economic theory, Keynesian 'stimulus' spending actually has a depressing effect. This is because the government is competing against private industry, and usurping private investment dollars.[32] In 1998, for example, Japan produced a 'stimulus' package of more than 16 trillion Yen, over half of it public works that would have a quashing effect on an equivalent amount of private, wealth-creating economic activity.[33] Overall, Japan's 'stimulus' packages added up to over one hundred trillion Yen, and yet they failed. According to these economic schools, that 'stimulus' money actually perpetuated the problem it was intended to cure.



In essence, if an economy wants to succeed in creating growth, they have to use PTism policies. These policies are quite simple.

1. If your income is less than your current liabilities, you will soon be done.
2. If your assets are worth less than your long term liabilities, you are done.
3. If you are done, it's game over. Declare bankruptcy and start again.

Simple, isn't it?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,329
  • Sep 12, 2012 11:07am Sep 12, 2012 11:07am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes that was a small TF tech correction.
We now need to see a larger correction on the daily.

Attachment
With this kind of a move if we hit 1.27 as a correction and expect it to be capped before 1.28 is just a foolishness . unless something miracle happens - clearly no miracles pending as its already done for the year . So if we correct till 1.27 from these 1.295.. then this momentum exposure can take the euro to 1.32 quite easily and this we have already noticed before with euro in the past moves .
Some where market is getting a feeling that it would rally still higher as we have touched and got reverse from 50% of Euro fib of 2001 lows to all time high .
finding A M S
  • #54,330
  • Sep 12, 2012 11:15am Sep 12, 2012 11:15am
Quoting PipTrapper
<b>[i][indent]Stimulus Spending: According to both Austrian and Monetarist economic theory, Keynesian 'stimulus' spending actually has a depressing effect. This is because the government is competing against private industry, and usurping private investment dollars.[32] In 1998, for example, Japan produced a 'stimulus' package of more than 16 trillion Yen, over half of it public works that would have a quashing effect on an equivalent amount of private, wealth-creating economic activity.[33] Overall, Japan's 'stimulus' packages added up to over...
Hahaha, thats my style. Free market for the win!

Btw, poor Keynes twisting around in his grave. He never said to increase fiscal spending when economy is overheated.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,331
  • Sep 12, 2012 11:20am Sep 12, 2012 11:20am
4 hours and ranging in a 30 pip window, I'm done and going out to catch a little sunshine.

See y'all later!
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #54,332
  • Sep 12, 2012 11:32am Sep 12, 2012 11:32am
Quoting prashant7
With this kind of a move if we hit 1.27 as a correction and expect it to be capped before 1.28 is just a foolishness . unless something miracle happens - clearly no miracles pending as its already done for the year . So if we correct till 1.27 from these 1.295.. then this momentum exposure can take the euro to 1.32 quite easily and this we have already noticed before with euro in the past moves .
Some where market is getting a feeling that it would rally still higher as we have touched and got reverse from 50% of Euro fib of 2001...
Anything is possible. We might even hit 1.40. However, from a fundamental perspective, such a high Euro would be devastating for Europe's economy and we will be back in a panic situation a lot sooner.

What Europe needs is fiscal consolidation and debt de-leveraging. In order for that to happen, they need growth so that people get back to work and the tax base increases. Remember it is the taxes that pay the nations' debts. So how do you stimulate growth in an economy where unemployment is very high and people/businesses/governments are in deep debt? That's easy... you stimulate export trade. How do you stimulate export trade? That is also easy...

1. Lower the exchange rate of your currency relative to your largest trading partners through "conventional" monetary policy.
2. Cut cut and cut some more government spending focusing on social programs and health care.
3. Invest part of the cuts in education, industry and supporting infrastructure. Use the rest to pay down as much debt as possible.

That's what the BRIC nations did. Look at them now.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,333
  • Sep 12, 2012 11:42am Sep 12, 2012 11:42am
I woke up this morning (8:30 CNT) and fund I had made a profit !!! I feel prett clever. I went back to Babypips.com and read up on Fib lines. Nothing I didn't know already, but it made me realize how useful it could be in tandum with S/R. So I plotted one based off the low and high of the past 2 days and one off of yesturday. The market did in fact retrace to ~1.282 (The 50% retrace :nerd:blush: for a minute then quickly went up. My exit was the next resistance ~1.2865, very conservative, but who cares; it worked! Here is roughly the sae trade I did on my FXCM demo account.
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Good hunting all. Be careful around the big news tomorrow. There maybe a bearish correction overdue, but there are a lot of blind bulls too (Source: Gossip).
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #54,334
  • Sep 12, 2012 11:44am Sep 12, 2012 11:44am
Quoting Cgb
4 hours and ranging in a 30 pip window, I'm done and going out to catch a little sunshine.

See y'all later!
lucky you! havent seen any kind of summer this year, was even worse on vacation
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #54,335
  • Sep 12, 2012 11:45am Sep 12, 2012 11:45am
Quoting PipTrapper
Anything is possible. We might even hit 1.40. However, from a fundamental perspective, such a high Euro would be devastating for Europe's economy and we will be back in a panic situation a lot sooner.

What Europe needs is fiscal consolidation and debt de-leveraging. In order for that to happen, they need growth so that people get back to work and the tax base increases. Remember it is the taxes that pay the nations' debts. So how do you stimulate growth in an economy where unemployment is very high and people/businesses/governments are in deep...
About BRIC nations its very much true and happening . But according to what i see from years of movements . whenever there is liquidity coming to the markets or even rumour of the same captures a strong up move and Euro finally goes higher . this is just the risk appetite situation waiting to be declared . such that we can have all the equity index get all time highs and money flow is what brings all this together and makes euro to move higher . So once all the reserve investers get in to equity markets with some hope then comes the money flow which carries euro to higher highs . similar setup is being created by markets in the present situation .
finding A M S
  • #54,336
  • Sep 12, 2012 11:50am Sep 12, 2012 11:50am
Quoting Vtmn
lucky you! havent seen any kind of summer this year, was even worse on vacation
Same thing.Also from Eesti. Whole summer at work.And only 1 week on vacation : first 3 days raining and next 4 days 10-15 degrees C. How lucky was I.
  • #54,337
  • Sep 12, 2012 11:58am Sep 12, 2012 11:58am
Quoting prashant7
About BRIC nations its very much true and happening . But according to what i see from years of movements . whenever there is liquidity coming to the markets or even rumour of the same captures a strong up move and Euro finally goes higher . this is just the risk appetite situation waiting to be declared . such that we can have all the equity index get all time highs and money flow is what brings all this together and makes euro to move higher . So once all the reserve investers get in to equity markets with some hope then comes the money flow...
You're right on that. However, there is no new liquidity in the markets and there will not be... at least not tomorrow anyway. There is only speculation of liquidity and the market is front running it, as always. So when tomorrow comes and there is no announcement of fresh pump juice, the pumps go into reverse and they start buying USD again.

Once the central banks stop experimenting with their "non-conventional" monetary policies and governments start managing the public finances properly, the economies will come back by themselves because the conditions will be there to stimulate them. Sooner or later, this will happen. Until then, all we're going to see is a series of false starts. The markets can only truly grow when there is actual real economic growth. We're not there yet, so that tells me that things will get worse... in some cases much worse, before they get better.

As such, a continuation of this rally is quite possible, but only if the Fed delivers more pump juice tomorrow.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #54,338
  • Sep 12, 2012 12:00pm Sep 12, 2012 12:00pm
Quoting Pip_Warrior
I woke up this morning (8:30 CNT) and fund I had made a profit !!! I feel prett clever. I went back to Babypips.com and read up on Fib lines. Nothing I didn't know already, but it made me realize how useful it could be in tandum with S/R. So I plotted one based off the low and high of the past 2 days and one off of yesturday. The market did in fact retrace to ~1.282 (The 50% retrace :nerd:blush: for a minute then quickly went up. My exit was the next resistance ~1.2865, very conservative, but who cares; it worked! Here is roughly the sae trade...
  • #54,339
  • Sep 12, 2012 12:06pm Sep 12, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes that was a small TF tech correction.
We now need to see a larger correction on the daily.

Attachment
This chart is pretty awesome. I take it as a bearish possibily and not a certainty of course. Did you draw this some time ago? I guess my real question is, are you surprised by the reacent EUR/US activity or have you been expecting this uptrend and now at the eve of te FOMC meeting tomorrow that it's time to go down? I'm not looking for a trade signal, just what an experienced trader cares about (long term support, ascending/descending trend lines, etc.)
BTW, the babypips review helped as well as the sister thread to this one with all of it's resources (Kindergarden) ^_^
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #54,340
  • Sep 12, 2012 12:34pm Sep 12, 2012 12:34pm
Quoting Pip_Warrior
This chart is pretty awesome. I take it as a bearish possibily and not a certainty of course. Did you draw this some time ago? I guess my real question is, are you surprised by the reacent EUR/US activity or have you been expecting this uptrend and now at the eve of te FOMC meeting tomorrow that it's time to go down? I'm not looking for a trade signal, just what an experienced trader cares about (long term support, ascending/descending trend lines, etc.)
BTW, the babypips review helped as well as the sister thread to this one with all of it's...
Of course it is only a possibility and not a certainty. I just mapped it out based on the approximate historical support resistance zones taking into account that there will not be the same extreme bias we had on the upswing.

As for what I expected on the bull move, the timing was exactly bang on but the price was off by almost 250 pips. I only expected a high of 1.2690 with a slight possibility of an overshoot to 1.2740/60. I never anticipated that we would reach 1.2935, not even for one second. The market is always full of surprises and you get to learn that after a few years, but this was a real surprise to me.

Now it is all up to how the market reacts to whatever Bernanke says or doesn't say tomorrow. My money is on "NO QE3".

I'm glad babypips.com worked out well for you. It is truly an amazingly well put together course. Everyone should complete it before ever trading a live account. Doing so may save you the shock of a margin call.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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