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  • #3,201
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:57pm Sep 10, 2012 3:57pm
LJ , are you planning to take the following Demand exceed Supply trade ???
( Of LTF or whatever way , I am just pointing out the area )

My buy pending trades are based on the regular stuff that I do , But is it also valid as SND trade ???
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Human
  • #3,202
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:23pm Sep 10, 2012 4:23pm
What do you think abt this setup ?
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  • #3,203
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:27pm Sep 10, 2012 4:27pm
js sayin..
EurJpy and ChfJpy looks quite similar...
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  • #3,204
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:27pm Sep 10, 2012 4:27pm
Quoting jeffokes
Mine was missed by a few pips!!! I must however say that I wasn't very comfortable with setup owing to the lack of space and had preferred GU but let the two be with the intention to manage GJ tightly...ok

FX_Neil, why do you prefer GJ over GU ?
Two different types of setups i guess but i liked GJ more in this case as:
1) The strong departure on the initial move.
2) FTB
3) Good HTF SR level
4) General uptrend occuring
5) It looked like a sellers trap as it broke through the immediate SR and RN at 125.00.
6) Finally, there was some divergence on the RSI (for information only).

Also. i'm not so familiar with the supply turned demand setups yet so didnt feel comfortable with it. Mr Lovejoy has also pointed out some excellent detail that i missed on both setups so as you may have guessed i'm still learning!
Progress, not perfection
  • #3,205
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:49pm Sep 10, 2012 4:49pm
Quoting Chanya
LJ , are you planning to take the following Demand exceed Supply trade ???
( Of LTF or whatever way , I am just pointing out the area )

My buy pending trades are based on the regular stuff that I do , But is it also valid as SND trade ???
Yes I'd be zooming in to find a RBR at the breakout area.
  • #3,206
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:49pm Sep 10, 2012 4:49pm
Quoting lovejoy80
I didn't take it as an FTB...took it based on the compression and engulfing bar on M5 - same targets though.

Notice the strong selling (relative) bar followed by a strong buying bar - that's a sign of the Pro money getting involved and we retail traders always want to be following the Pro money. Sometimes they play tricks to fool the novices but more often than not a well trained eye can spot Pro buying / selling.

This is a common example - strong selling into a demand / support area - novice traders get scared or worse fooled into thinking...
Thanks Mark, great analysis as usual.

I notice that the bar after the engulfing bounced off the 125 RN and back into the swing point. Would this have been a lower risk entry or it is better to enter straight after the engulfing candle?
Progress, not perfection
  • #3,207
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:51pm Sep 10, 2012 4:51pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Yes I'd be zooming in to find a RBR at the breakout area.
Great ... Thanks
Human
  • #3,208
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:52pm Sep 10, 2012 4:52pm
Quoting Dariusz
What do you think abt this setup ?
Not a pair I like much, but I have the potential long at the 0.7946 area marked as well as a potential short from the RBD @ 0.8028.
  • #3,209
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:53pm Sep 10, 2012 4:53pm
Quoting Dariusz
What do you think abt this setup ?
Hey Dariusz

I'm not sure what the setup is. Where is you entry and what setup are you trading?

I've quickly annotated a chart based on my own interpretation. Nothing stands out at the moment until I drop down to the 5m TF.

The area noted as '5m D' is a zone already tested on at least two occasions. I like to trade into or from a 'fresh' S or D level. '5m RBR D' has my attention as it is an untested zone where the market decided to move higher and is untested.

0.79455 could also be a potential FTB type of a trade.

This is of course my view only and LJ may see things otherwise. I think there are stronger setups elsewhere in the market.

Edit: Looks like I was too slow to post. LJ's response above.
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  • #3,210
  • Sep 10, 2012 4:59pm Sep 10, 2012 4:59pm
Quoting FX_Neil
Thanks Mark, great analysis as usual.

I notice that the bar after the engulfing bounced off the 125 RN and back into the swing point. Would this have been a lower risk entry or it is better to enter straight after the engulfing candle?
Do you mean taking the trade when price retrace back to test a previous pivot and the compression TL area i.e. where marked?

I tend to just enter as soon as I see the sign I'm looking for, I don't wait for bar breaks or anything silly like that. If I see a very good retracement entry then I'll go for it if I can zoom in and see some rejection signs - but most of the time we can't know if a retracement will occur etc.
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  • #3,211
  • Sep 10, 2012 5:02pm Sep 10, 2012 5:02pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Not a pair I like much, but I have the potential long at the 0.7946 area marked as well as a potential short from the RBD @ 0.8028.
Thanks , I guess it's based upon D resistance.
  • #3,212
  • Sep 10, 2012 5:03pm Sep 10, 2012 5:03pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Do you mean taking the trade when price retrace back to test a previous pivot and the compression TL area i.e. where marked?

I tend to just enter as soon as I see the sign I'm looking for, I don't wait for bar breaks or anything silly like that. If I see a very good retracement entry then I'll go for it if I can zoom in and see some rejection signs - but most of the time we can't know if a retracement will occur etc.
Ok thanks!
Progress, not perfection
  • #3,213
  • Sep 10, 2012 5:07pm Sep 10, 2012 5:07pm
Quoting Dariusz
Thanks , I guess it's based upon D resistance.
I have my daily resistance higher around 0.7955, the lower area of 0.7946 is a H1 SR. You can tell this a) but the multiple tests at this area and b) by the M1 RBR prior to the recent breakout.

The daily resistance is definitely a key decision level, but trading EG on VLTF's isn't that efficient as pip movements relative to spread are less than ideal.
  • #3,214
  • Sep 11, 2012 9:11am Sep 11, 2012 9:11am
Couple of things i saw today, in particular USDX looking very heavy

Thoughts anyone?

Cheers,
Neil.
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Progress, not perfection
  • #3,215
  • Sep 11, 2012 9:19am Sep 11, 2012 9:19am
More detail on USDX here, would you consider the retest of SR compression or a bear flag? Could have been used to add to the position to i guess?

Neil
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Progress, not perfection
  • #3,216
  • Sep 11, 2012 9:29am Sep 11, 2012 9:29am
Cable this time, nice pullback into Demand and trendline support!

Hindsight.com!
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Progress, not perfection
  • #3,217
  • Sep 11, 2012 3:18pm Sep 11, 2012 3:18pm
Quoting FX_Neil
Couple of things i saw today, in particular USDX looking very heavy

Thoughts anyone?

Cheers,
Neil.
The EU setup was a good one, clear compression into a strong demand zone.

USDx is certainly looking heavy and looking to close below daily demand on my feed.
  • #3,218
  • Sep 11, 2012 3:25pm Sep 11, 2012 3:25pm
Quoting FX_Neil
More detail on USDX here, would you consider the retest of SR compression or a bear flag? Could have been used to add to the position to i guess?

Neil
That was a standard bear flag for me - a clear sign price is breaking those previous lows to the left.
  • #3,219
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:06pm Sep 11, 2012 4:06pm
Here is a trade I took earlier, simple SR FTB on EURSGD. Gotta be a bit careful on exotics and crosses at times, but they still present some good setups from time to time.
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  • #3,220
  • Sep 11, 2012 4:09pm Sep 11, 2012 4:09pm
I was out of action most of the afternoon but also caught this one this morning. Spike above the channel into supply - rejection + close back below on M5.

As mentioned yesterday it's a classic sign of Pro money - spikes into supply + instance rejection. That's real price action for you.
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