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EurAnalysis

  • #53,961
  • Sep 11, 2012 10:11am Sep 11, 2012 10:11am
Quoting Kilgore T
Its quite fascinating to watch how a lot of people shorted the euro over the entire rally thinking "its about to go down". Their accounts got cleaned out, as the big boys knew what they were doing, hyping up euro crisis and longing euro at the same time. Now, nobody dares to short anymore and visions of 1.30-1.32 are becoming quite ubiquitous. And the truth is that Euro is way more expensive than it was 3 months ago and is a way better short than back then. Especially that those who knew what was coming, knew it 3 months ago just as well, when...


May be early short though.
  • #53,962
  • Sep 11, 2012 10:13am Sep 11, 2012 10:13am
Quoting Kilgore T
Its quite fascinating to watch how a lot of people shorted the euro over the entire rally thinking "its about to go down". Their accounts got cleaned out, as the big boys knew what they were doing, hyping up euro crisis and longing euro at the same time. Now, nobody dares to short anymore and visions of 1.30-1.32 are becoming quite ubiquitous. And the truth is that Euro is way more expensive than it was 3 months ago and is a way better short than back then. Especially that those who knew what was coming, knew it 3 months ago just as well, when...

Bias and trends are relative to what timeframe you trade. I shorted twice and made 17 pips DURING the up trend. traded off the bounce of the trendline AND 25 for another 22. My peronsal opinion is the current up move is exhausted. It is almost 100 pips from the Asian session low. It may go higher but I will scale it in so TP will be at the 25 level depending on PA. Then again who knows what the market will do.
  • #53,963
  • Sep 11, 2012 10:15am Sep 11, 2012 10:15am
Quoting Cgb
Err... Wasn't that at 1.2666?
That was almost week ago mate. Now, there is new clear weak ahead.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,964
  • Sep 11, 2012 10:16am Sep 11, 2012 10:16am
One interesting development has been U.S. corporates and banks issuing euro denominated debt; by some measures, could be the most in a couple of years.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/8595...china-tensions


Why would they do that if EUR goes up and USD down?
  • #53,965
  • Sep 11, 2012 10:19am Sep 11, 2012 10:19am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
That was almost week ago mate. Now, there is new clear weak ahead.
You mean 1.5 trading sessions ago. Hardly a week

Where do you see the next support area? 1.30xx?
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #53,966
  • Sep 11, 2012 10:23am Sep 11, 2012 10:23am
The main factor that determines the value of any currency is cross border trade flows. For example, if you have a competitive economy and you export more goods and services than what you import, then at the margin, there will be a greater demand for you currency in the FX market. As long as a country has positive trade flows, its currency will appreciate.

Some people think that if Super Mario prints euros to buy Spanish and Italian debt, then the currency will be diluted and fall in value. Well that's not exactly how things work. Japan is a perfect example of why money printing won't reduce the value of a currency.

The only determining factor for the value of the yen is what happens at the margin in the FX market. It does not matter what Japan does in her own borders, for as long as Japan has a positive current account with the rest of the world, the value of the yen will go up. Therefore the Bank of Japan (BoJ) can print all the money in the world to build bridges and roads that no one will use, with no negative effects on the yen. Of course the Bank of Japan offsets most of those flows buying US Bonds, but that's another story.

....fast forward

The bottom line is:

Policy and actions that assures the markets that Europe will not break apart is bullish for the EURUSD. If the issue of a euro-break up is resolved once and for all, I think that there would be massive inflows into Europe and the value of the euro will probably return to 1,60.


Full article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/8588...he-eurusd-rise
  • #53,967
  • Sep 11, 2012 10:24am Sep 11, 2012 10:24am
Quoting Cgb
You mean 1.5 trading sessions ago. Hardly a week

Where do you see the next support area? 1.30xx?
I have a monthly ressistance zone at 2957 - 3008. Once it enters, I will slowly start to build shorts. If it doesnt enter, well, screw that. In fact it really may not enter, because market is seriously overbought, and it may also spike right through the zone if BB launches QE. Wise man would stay flat untill FOMC. But I am not wise, I am arrogant and know nothing. Nevertheless, I think it is safe zone to enter day pre FOMC. Once FOMC gets close, I hope we will be below zone and my stops will be at BE. Otherwise, I simply wait what BB says.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,968
  • Sep 11, 2012 10:30am Sep 11, 2012 10:30am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I have a monthly ressistance zone at 2957 - 3008. Once it enters, I will slowly start to build shorts. If it doesnt enter, well, screw that. In fact it really may not enter, because market is seriously overbought, and it may also spike right through the zone if BB launches QE. Wise man would stay flat untill FOMC. But I am not wise, I am arrogant and know nothing. Nevertheless, I think it is safe zone to enter day pre FOMC. Once FOMC gets close, I hope we will be below zone and my stops will be at BE. Otherwise, I simply wait what BB says.

T
I agree only selling attempt should be slight below 1.3000 area (not applicable for scalping).
  • #53,969
  • Sep 11, 2012 10:33am Sep 11, 2012 10:33am
Quoting rekon67
I agree only selling attempt should be slight below 1.3000 area (not applicable for scalping).
2957 actually happens to be slightly below , as well as 80% of the zone.

I am glad you agree with the zone .

Let us wait for Mr. Market to show the way now.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,970
  • Sep 11, 2012 10:35am Sep 11, 2012 10:35am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
2957 actually happens to be slightly below , as well as 80% of the zone.

I am glad you agree with the zone .

Let us wait for Mr. Market to show the way now.
Yup, that's the top of the bull flag projection I posted this morning.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #53,971
  • Sep 11, 2012 10:36am Sep 11, 2012 10:36am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
2957 actually happens to be slightly below , as well as 80% of the zone.

I am glad you agree with the zone .

Let us wait for Mr. Market to show the way now.
Also lets wait for my Excel EUR Strength Meter to give you a perfect Reversal Signal.
  • #53,972
  • Sep 11, 2012 10:36am Sep 11, 2012 10:36am
But what I am asking myself now, is where to put SL. That move on friday really was brutal and those money are still lurking there for signs of additional hopium. I wouldnt like to get rode over by van of hippies again.

edit: moreover, we may stop even below the zone. Like @ ,2900. The reason for this is that we spiked through previous monthly zone without retracement, so bulls should be exhausted. Should .

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,973
  • Sep 11, 2012 10:43am Sep 11, 2012 10:43am
Quoting Cgb
Yup, that's the top of the bull flag projection I posted this morning.


Attached Image
  • #53,974
  • Sep 11, 2012 10:44am Sep 11, 2012 10:44am
I will be buying the dips at this point until 1.3000. I only go for small scalps of 20 pips each most of the time. Sometimes I let it ride longer. Right now I am looking to buy at a pullback to 1.2850ish level. Hopefully the trend will be my friend.
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  • #53,975
  • Sep 11, 2012 10:44am Sep 11, 2012 10:44am
Quoting Thijs
The bears will wake up soon. Wait for it ....
i have been waiting for the bear since 1.26 so i could short it for a good reversal, but after it broke out at 1.2650 last friday and kept above 1.2750 it's hard to imagine when this bull run actually ends, crazy hopium with anything good or bad will just keep it pumping higher. Positive/negative data from us will keep eur higher, whether any reasoning of qe3 or risk on.

frankfurt/london will prepare for it to move up even after many attempt for it to move down other times.

us session -> purely fundamental, all kind of good news for eur can be seen recently for the past 2-3 weeks, and bad news for the us at this moment .

resistance has been broken at every level we haven't found a top, only until a fundamental event that trigger a sell down of 200pips ++ in a single day, or good strong bearish 4 hours that has very long red candle bar only then i believe the bear has waken up.

The probability of esm being ruled as illegal is very very slim, after that announcement we won't know what how this pair can leap even more.

If not a buy at every time the macd returns from -negative to 0+ positive territory should be use to catch the bull run. shorting is burning it with negative swaps.
  • #53,976
  • Sep 11, 2012 10:50am Sep 11, 2012 10:50am
Next Round figure is 1.2900 keep that in mind, it is now an open ground for buyers.
  • #53,977
  • Sep 11, 2012 10:50am Sep 11, 2012 10:50am
Quoting rekon67
Also lets wait for my Excel EUR Strength Meter to give you a perfect Reversal Signal.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #53,978
  • Sep 11, 2012 10:50am Sep 11, 2012 10:50am
Haha Carson. Journey > Destination. . I like that. Too bad PT already put me to my place with offtopic discussion. Otherwise, I would start philosophical debate. Anyway, me likes journey.

Edit: Btw, you know why he put me to place? Because he was leaving and knows I am able to spam whole thread with offtopic. So guys, I urge you, I am chatty and will fill your thread with offtopic if you dont occasionally tell me to stfu. So please, feel free to do so and I wont be offended .

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,979
  • Sep 11, 2012 10:54am Sep 11, 2012 10:54am
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  • #53,980
  • Sep 11, 2012 11:02am Sep 11, 2012 11:02am
USD has been unloved for quite some time.
Open trades have not violated my risk parameters yet, but they are not very healthy.
Will wait and see what comes out of Germany tommorrow.
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