EurAnalysis

They only use them on daily and typically they use SMA

aaa - you're one of them.. Ok thanks!

I wish

I believe they look at daily in similar maner just with more lines:

Hehe, I wish I knew .

But deling desk in a bank, those are people like you and me in there. They are just more experienced, trading for 10 years and usually have Masters in economics. But they are more like insider traders and all use Bloomberg platforms. Sometimes Reuters, but I have never seen that. You have like 10 monitors and watching Bonds, Equities, Commodities, FX and Futures of all of this. Then you watch news. And one of the last things you watch is SMA.

I would bet for SMA from daily close, but heh, really dont know. But the important point is, they dont give a fok about SMA because of the number itself, but more of because of the zone it creates. Daily SMA 200 kinda separates market from bullish and bearish trends. You know I use for definition of trend break of last wave high, but you could as well define trend when PA is below or above SMA. So, SMA is more of a zone, than number, and I dont believe there is single investor in the banking sector entering there to the pip.

Edit: But more of this mumbo jumbo. The ones using SMA and actually entering to the pip, are algo traders. I dont dare to say how many algo traders use 200 SMA and therefore provide you retracement there, but as far as I know in algo trading, SMA usually serves as confirmation of trend, not as entry. They are entering more like at high divergence of correlation or I would bet combination of Stochastic+ATR+some more+maybe SMA, to make a combo signal entry.

T

Agree on everything you say! I guess it's impossible to enter to the pip with realy huge amounts as it requires some range for liquidation..

The economy needs to go into recession. The FED is out of their mind.

http://www.financialsense.com/node/9197

Finally sanity is restored and will the public listen ?

Probably not. Well worth the listen. Good Morning...

that's true and that's largely what causes the countertrend "dips" and rises as the big traders intermittantly take profits into strength........

This is the 9th candle (H8) of bull run.

if the 2794 can get closed under convincingly(ie momentum).. and a retest and LL.... I can see us looking at new lows... one channel at a time...

If not though.... we are still pretty damned bullish looking

From Website WWW.JSMINESET.COM


Our nation’s fiscal challenge is much worse and growing at a much faster rate than politicians are willing to admit.

The National Debt Clock debuted in 1989 displaying total national debt of $2.7 trillion. As of July 25, 2012, the National Debt Clock shows total national debt of over $15.9 trillion and increasing rapidly. However, this clock significantly understates the severity of our federal financial challenge because it only represents the total current amount of U.S. public and intra-governmental debt.

The magnitude of the financial challenge facing the U.S. is better represented by the federal government’s total liabilities (e.g., publicly held debt, unfunded military/civilian pensions and retiree health obligations, environmental liabilities), unfunded social insurance promises (e.g., Social Security and Medicare), and a range of other federal commitments and contingencies (e.g., Federal National Mortgage Association, Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation). These figures are the basis for CAI’s new Burden Barometer, which provides a much better measure of the enormity of our federal financial challenge.

The U.S. Financial Burden Barometer (Burden Barometer) offers a more comprehensive basis to assess where the U.S. is and where it is headed financially. It was created by adding the numbers for total liabilities, unfunded social insurance promises, and various commitments and contingencies found in the official financial statements of the U.S. government and other official government reports (e.g., annual Social Security and Medicare Trustees Report, Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) current projected deficit for fiscal 2012). Importantly, the Burden Barometer has an extra digit that can be used, if necessary. Hopefully this will never happen, but the National Debt Clock had to be modified to add an unanticipated additional digit within the past 5 years. As of July 25, 2012, the Burden Barometer stood at $69,776,800,000,000, and the number is growing by about $10 million a minute.

The Burden Barometer should give politicians a new sense of urgency to act. It also provides a new way to keep score and hold politicians accountable. By using the Burden Barometer, politicians can also be recognized and rewarded for supporting reforms that can have a major impact over time, not just in the next 10 years.

For example, reforms to existing social insurance programs are likely to be phased-in over time. These reforms would not reduce the national debt one dollar, but they could result in a significant reduction of the amount shown and rate of increase of the Burden Barometer. It’s a new way to measure our much bigger financial challenge and to give credit for meaningful reforms that can have a huge impact over time.

More…

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/german...05100.html?l=1

BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany's Constitutional Court said on Tuesday it would not postpone its long-awaited ruling on the legality of the euro zone's bailout fund, despite a last-minute legal challenge by a eurosceptic lawmaker.

The court said it would go ahead with Wednesday's ruling on the legality of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the fiscal compact for budget discipline, whose implementation has been delayed for months by the German judges.

The Constitutional Court issued a brief statement saying the ruling at 10 a.m. (0800 GMT) on Wednesday "will go ahead as scheduled", meaning conservative lawmaker Peter Gauweiler's last-minute challenge would not cause further delays.

The court in Karlsruhe did not go into the merits of his complaint, lodged at the weekend after the European Central Bank announced its plans for unlimited purchases of bonds of crisis-hit euro states to reduce their borrowing costs.

He argues that Germany should not ratify the ESM until the ECB rows back on the bond-buying plan which he sees as a threat to the German budget. The constitutional court should therefore possibly postpone its decision on the fund, he said.

German legal experts believe the court will approve the new permanent bailout fund and the budget deal, while possibly imposing tough conditions limiting Berlin's flexibility on future rescues.

If the court did back the injunction request against the ESM and fiscal compact, it would have a devastating impact on bond and currency markets, pushing the 17-member currency zone deeper into turmoil by casting doubt on its ability to launch further rescue bids of heavily-indebted states.

Most German law professors do not expect the court to go as far as signaling that Germany needs to change its constitution and hold a referendum before it can take part in any further integration of the European Union or the currency zone.

well, this is about the fastest and deepest retrace we've had after a bull thrust since this bull phase started a couple of weeks ago.....

almost smack dead center to the 50% too...lol

Mate do you have phone glued to your ear now? Seems like you enter a lot these days.

T

Im on a computer .... just playin bid/ask with the numbers(94 is the R1 today...etc)



market isnt swinging like I expected it too so Im doin some intraday garbage waiting for one of the larger channel areas to trade off

besides brother...Im still trading Demo.. I hit my monthly drawdown limit a few weeks back... my rule Is I DONT trade again until I double a demo account using a 2% per trade risk methodology

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...-out-of-runway

After taking a pass on official QE at the Jackson Hole soiree, once again the focus is on the FOMC meeting this week. Will they or won’t they?

After last week’s not unexpectedly weak employment number where the BLS birth/death model estimate accounted for 94% of reported headline payroll gains, pundits far and wide raised their percentage bets that QE will indeed be on the Thursday FOMC lunch menu. Personally, I’m convinced weak payroll and capital goods orders as of late are due to business concerns over the as of yet unaddressed fiscal cliff concerns.

But the Street remains focused on the apparent self imposed Fed mandate of employment acceleration. The first two mega-QE’s could not light the cyclical employment fire, but hey, maybe the third time is the charm, right? Regardless, we know another Bernanke inspired QE is coming at some point, despite already high food and energy prices, to say nothing of equity prices in a declining earnings growth rate environment.

The point of this discussion is not to debate QE, nor when the next round will be unleashed. I believe that with the upcoming QE, regardless of the mystery date upon which it will arrive, we now need to focus on the banking sector. Why? Because the banks, with emphasis on the very large TBTF banks, are running out of earnings runway fast. Really fast.

Think back to early 2009 as the first QE was being concocted. One of the key rationales for implementation was the thinking that if the Fed could expand its balance sheet and essentially swap fresh cash with banking sector assets, the banks would be free to lend out this new found liquidity. And given the magic of fractional reserve banking, the lending multiplier would respark the core of the modern day global economy – credit acceleration. Without dragging you through an historical retrospective, we all know that despite unprecedented QE1, QE2 and Operation Twist, bank lending in the current cycle has been incredibly subdued. Certainly this is one of the key differentiating factors of the 2009-present cycle. But this becomes very important under QE3. In one sense, based on the character of bank earnings in the current cycle, the moment of truth has arrived. Why? Because the easy earnings gains for the banks driven by declining loan loss reserves in the current cycle is coming to an end. Couple this with ongoing net interest margin compression (thanks largely to the Fed) and the banks potentially face flat to declining earnings ahead unless lending really starts to accelerate. In fact as you’ll see in the chart below, point to point banking sector earnings have not grown over the last four quarters (FDIC 2Q Bank Report data).

Snippet:

Although I’ll refrain from dragging you through a good amount of data, loan loss reserve draw downs into earnings have been most meaningful for the TBTF banks. You’ll certainly remember a number of quarters whereby JPM or C “made the numbers” almost exclusively by loss reserve draw downs. The important issue of the moment is that this ability to boost earnings from prior period reserve additions is coming to and end.

Across the banking system loan loss reserves as a percentage of total loans has dropped 125 basis points since mark-to-market accounting was wiped away in early 2009. But if we look at banks based on asset size, it’s the small banks that are still carrying loss reserve ratios quite near their peaks of the last five years, skewing a bit the message of the chart below. For the very small banks, loss reserves as a percentage of total loans have maybe dropped 10 basis points from prior cycle peaks, nowhere near the 125 basis point compression we’ve experienced across the aggregate banking system. It’s the big banks who have been the most aggressive in reducing ongoing quarterly absolute dollar loss reserve provisions and existing loss reserves.

http://imagesize.financialsense.com/...-loan-loss.jpg

Again, why bring this up now? It just so happens that in 2Q, the US banking system provision for loan losses was close to flat with the prior quarter. Quarterly loan loss provisions have been dropping consistently and meaningfully every single quarter since early 2010 and in 2Q of this year stood 78% below the absolute dollar quarterly provision for loan losses seen at the outset of 2010. Message being with a now flat quarter over quarter loan loss provision? The earnings gains for the banks from reduced loan loss provisions/reserve ratio declines is over. Looking ahead, banking system earnings will now reflect much more core operating fundamentals.

Conclusions...

http://imagesize.financialsense.com/...est-margin.jpg

Thinking about all of this collectively, I believe the key question now becomes, will QE3 finally spark a meaningful acceleration in bank lending?

The banks have been able to “hide” behind declining loan loss provisions for close to the last three years, but that will no longer be the case ahead. A steep interest rate curve is not about to magically appear any time soon, again courtesy of the Fed. So the banks are going to face the reality of meaningful reported earnings pressure. Their willingness to lend and their customer’s willingness to borrow will increasingly drive banking sector reported earnings results at the margin in the second half of this year and into 2013. The banks have simply run out of earnings support runway.

So, if QE3 comes to us characterized by Fed balance sheet expansion, will the banks use the newfound liquidity to lend? Or will they simply continue to use it to trade/invest? I suggest that watching bank behavior will be a very important tell regarding the real economic outlook by the banks themselves and very much a statement on their desire to increase balance sheet risk. If QE3 comes and bank lending does not accelerate, then we may see the Fed and Apple in a head to head race to see just which can release version 10 of their latest product first, whether that be a phone or an expanded central bank balance sheet.

yep, that's why i took a 5 pip long scalp there.......

So. Anyone here thinks court can say FO? Would be funny . But there is question coming out of this question. If there is no investor who bets court will say FO, is court approving bailout 100% priced in?

I think the latest is right. They will approve and it is 100% priced in, so the market wont move that much. Maybe just a bit.

Some German nazi here perhaps?

T

It just goes to pick up passengers then moves on.