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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #53,801
  • Sep 11, 2012 1:43am Sep 11, 2012 1:43am
Today’s orderboard

Written by Pete Jackson
September 11, 2012 at 06:23 GMT

EUR/USD: Offers 1.2790/00 and 1.2815/25 (late Fri NY high 1.2817, barrier 1.2825) ahead of tech res 1.2835/40 (200 day MA 1.2834). Also barrier talk 1.2850 buy stops above. Bids 1.2750/60 sell stops below, ahead of more bids 1.2700/10

GBP/USD: Offers 1.6015/35 (Fri high 1.2035) possible buy stops above ahead of more tech res/offers 1.6100/20. Bids 1.5960/70 and 1.5940/50 ahead of 1.5920/30 (Fri lows 1.5923)

EUR/GBP: Offers 0.8000/10 and 0.8040/50, Bids 0.7970/80 (tech 100 day MA 0.7974) and 0.7925/35 ahead of stronger bids 0.7900/10 (55 day MA 0.7902)

USD/JPY: Bids 78.00/20 (likely semi-official, Japan Life co’s, importers). Sell stops through 78.00 and larger through 77.90 ahead of larger bids 77.50/70. Offers from 78.30 up to 78.50(exporters) ahead tech res 78.67 (Ichimoku cloud base) and more offers 78.90/00.

EUR/JPY: Bids 99.60/70 ahead of tech supp 100 day MA at 99.37and more bids 99.00/10 with possible sell stops through 98.90. Offers 100.00/10 ahead of tech res 100.43 (Fri high)

AUD/JPY: Tech supp 100 day MA 80.73 (o/n low 80.74) ahead of bids 80.30/40. Offers 81.20/30 and tech res 81.56 (cloud top), more tech res/offers up at 81.70/80 (200 day MA 81.80)

EUR/CHF: Offers 1.2100/10, larger up at 1.2150/60 (Fri high 1.2156) possible buy stops above, but offers plentiful ahead of 1.2200. Bids 1.2070/80 and 1.2050/60

AUD/USD: Bids at 1.0300/10, sell stops below ahead of more bids 1.0275/85 possible sell stops through 1.0270. Tech res 1.0350/55(Fibonacci 50% retracement level 1.0355- of 1.0545/1.0166 fall) and more down Offers 1.0390/00 (debatable barrier 1.0400), but likely buy stops above ahead of further offers/tech res 1.0430/40

EUR/AUD: Bids 1.2335/45 and 1.2300/10 (100 day MA 1.2306), Offers 1.2360/70 and 1.2390/10 ahead of tech res 1.2438 (200 day MA)

NZD/USD: Offers 0.8100/10 and 0.8145/55 buy stops above ahead of tech res 0.8185/90 (Aug 22 high 0.8187). Bids 0.8080/90 and 0.8040/50, likely sell stops through 0.8000
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,802
  • Sep 11, 2012 1:44am Sep 11, 2012 1:44am
Today’s option expiries

Written by Pete Jackson
September 11, 2012 at 05:06 GMT

For the 1000NY/1400GMT cut

EUR/USD: 1.2625, 1.2700, 1.2720, 1.2750

USD/JPY: 79.00, 80.00

GBP/USD: 1.5950

EUR/GBP: 0.7930, 0.8000, 0.8015

AUD/USD: 1.0200, 1.0250, 1.0300, 1.0325

NZD/USD: 0.8110
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,803
  • Sep 11, 2012 1:46am Sep 11, 2012 1:46am
Germany’s Constitutional Court says ruling on euro rescue fund to go ahead as planned on Sept 12 despite new complaint

So, you may now completely ignore that paragraph in my morning update
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,804
  • Sep 11, 2012 1:50am Sep 11, 2012 1:50am
Quoting ProfitsOnly
my ucad short Target 1 0.9750 still 4 pips shy...
Target 1 hit! Took out 40% profits.. now on to Target 2: 0.9724 for full profit taking Before considering a reversal. IMO wont reverse so soon as dust might take sometime to settle!
  • #53,805
  • Sep 11, 2012 1:52am Sep 11, 2012 1:52am
Quoting ProfitsOnly
Target 1 hit! Took out 40% profits.. now on to Target 2: 0.9724 for full profit taking Before considering a reversal. IMO wont reverse so soon as dust might take sometime to settle!
Congrats
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,806
  • Sep 11, 2012 2:00am Sep 11, 2012 2:00am
Quoting PipTrapper
Congrats
Its 9/11 Today . 1st year after osama being killed .
finding A M S
  • #53,807
  • Sep 11, 2012 2:06am Sep 11, 2012 2:06am
the news pop knocked my trades out for +10 pips each...

held a long time for no reason....

Same numbers in play though... we can see how the 94 pans out here.. if it holds we have the 2805 to contend with which is a W/D number...

below is the 82 and above the 2805 is the 2834 B/O area
  • #53,808
  • Sep 11, 2012 2:11am Sep 11, 2012 2:11am
WHo can explain whats the difference between Simple Moving Average (SMA) and just Moving Average? As it is confusing on daily - SMA goes at 2808 and MA at 2835 !?
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  • #53,809
  • Sep 11, 2012 2:16am Sep 11, 2012 2:16am
Quoting Likerty
WHo can explain whats the difference between Simple Moving Average (SMA) and just Moving Average? As it is confusing on daily - SMA goes at 2808 and MA at 2835 !?
By Default MA = SMA

But in Stock and Forex Market we require more dynamic and some time smooth for a Longer term so there are others MAs as EMA, SMMA etc.
  • #53,810
  • Edited 2:23am Sep 11, 2012 2:20am | Edited 2:23am
took a low risk Long at the 1.2794 rejection(got in at 2799)

stp/rvs at 1.2799 with the rejection of the 1.2805/1.2815 level....

so a nice little 0-risk long... I figure if the 00 goes than this thing is heading down for another crack at the lows...

it snapped me in short at the 2799... stops at 1.2835
  • #53,811
  • Sep 11, 2012 2:21am Sep 11, 2012 2:21am
Quoting rekon67
By Default MA = SMA

But in Stock and Forex Market we require more dynamic and some time smooth for a Longer term so there are others MAs as EMA, SMMA etc.
Thats what I thought.. But ForexLive reporting daily 200 MA at 2835 which do not coincide with what my SMA shows..
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  • #53,812
  • Sep 11, 2012 2:27am Sep 11, 2012 2:27am
Quoting Likerty
Thats what I thought.. But ForexLive reporting daily 200 MA at 2835 which do not coincide with what my SMA shows..
Different broker = different time zone = different ma's
  • #53,813
  • Sep 11, 2012 2:30am Sep 11, 2012 2:30am
Good morning guys,

Watch your a$$.

Good luck today,

T
Attached Image
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,814
  • Sep 11, 2012 2:30am Sep 11, 2012 2:30am
Quoting Likerty
Thats what I thought.. But ForexLive reporting daily 200 MA at 2835 which do not coincide with what my SMA shows..
my chart shows it at about 1.2829 right now....but on the daily chart a 6 pip difference is meaningless........
  • #53,815
  • Sep 11, 2012 2:30am Sep 11, 2012 2:30am
Hey Guys and good morning,

Here is my 2 cents for our favorite pair....

Things will most definitely be more clear next week after the FED meeting, if the FED disappoints the market (no QE3) then i can see us retracing a double move down all the way back to 1.2040, however, if the FED supports the markets expectation it will go up till 1.3150 and from there we will have to wait and see how we deal with it.

I will be sitting on my hands till we have a break up above 1.2950 to go long and close my dreadful shorts and may leverage my way to scale back those losses, or a break below 1.2680 and will re-enter with another short.

Saying that i do see this pair testing the bears patience, so best thing is to set up my orders and head out

Till then i'm twiddling my thumbs!!

Good luck to everyone
Cheers!!
  • #53,816
  • Sep 11, 2012 2:34am Sep 11, 2012 2:34am
Quoting mka_78
Different broker = different time zone = different ma's
Yea... Thats why I trade in H1 - no curiosity of different time zones
69
  • #53,817
  • Sep 11, 2012 2:39am Sep 11, 2012 2:39am
Quoting Likerty
Thats what I thought.. But ForexLive reporting daily 200 MA at 2835 which do not coincide with what my SMA shows..
How they are calculating the MA and SMA that may be the question. I think they are customizing.

Second thing is which price they are using for calculating MA and SMA, is that typical price, Open, Close etc.

Attached Image
  • #53,818
  • Sep 11, 2012 2:39am Sep 11, 2012 2:39am
Quoting Likerty
Thats what I thought.. But ForexLive reporting daily 200 MA at 2835 which do not coincide with what my SMA shows..
Morning,

mka is right. Though it is not because of timezones, but because of different liquidity provider/different OTC market. Every broker has a bit different price. Btw, thats why it is nonscence to post five digit entries.

Second thing which affects calculation is price. There are more types of SMAs. For example I calculate SMA from close (so SMA 50 is 50 last closes), but very commonly used method is for example HLC/3 (high+low+close/3), then you have median price (H+L/2) and weighted close price (H+L+C+C/4)

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,819
  • Sep 11, 2012 2:39am Sep 11, 2012 2:39am
Quoting mka_78
Different broker = different time zone = different ma's
exactly

mine is showing 1.2832
  • #53,820
  • Sep 11, 2012 2:41am Sep 11, 2012 2:41am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Morning,

mka is right. Though it is not because of timezones, but because of different liquidity provider/different OTC market. Every broker has a bit different price. Btw, thats why it is nonscence to post five digit entries.

Second thing which affects calculation is price. There are more types of SMAs. For example I calculate SMA from close (so SMA 50 is 50 last closes), but very commonly used method is for example HLC/3 (high+low+close/3), then you have median price (H+L/2) and weighted close price (H+L+C+C/4)

T
..and which one big fat bastards are using..?
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