EurAnalysis

I can't think of any of mine that needs correction. Any idea?

Same Adult photos all over the places

Ken u Long?

Long as in buy, nope. PA is not moving.

Since PA is consolidating a breakout is coming near, still not counting any sharp declining of price any time soon.

Maybe NY open will see some movement. Sleepy markets.

September 10, 2012

Super Mario's Big Bluff

The financial world has entered a new state of mania with the announcement by the ECB that it will engage in "unlimited" bond buying to maintain lower interest rates for trouble EU sovereigns.

As you no doubt know, our firm's forecast was that the ECB would not engage in any large-scale bond purchasing programs. We maintain this view today regardless of the ECB's announcement.

The reason?

The ECB stated very clearly that new bond purchases would only be made under strict conditions. Those conditions involve:
1) Applying for a bailout from the EFSF
2) Meeting fiscal budget requirements
3) Implementing major spending cuts and various other austerity measures

If this list sounds rather familiar, it's the exact formula the ECB has used on Greece with absolutely abysmal results. And now the ECB is going to apply this failed approach to the EU as a whole?

Let's cut through the BS here. The use of the word "conditions" completely negates the word "unlimited." Saying that you'll buying "unlimited" bonds as long as EU sovereigns meet certain "conditions" actually means nothing. Greece has received over €200 billion in bailouts under "conditions." How did that work out?

So the ECB is not actually announcing a massive new bond-buying program. Instead it's just announced that it's willing to provide more money as long as EU nations hand over their fiscal sovereignty and implement austerity measures.

This is nothing new. In fact, this has been the exact same program that the ECB's had in place ever since the EU Crisis began in 2010.

The fact that it has changed the wording around a bit changes nothing from a fundamental standpoint. Indeed, the program the ECB "announced" is, if anything, the last thing Spain or Italy actually wants.

Spain already has an economy that is bordering on a Greece-like disaster. And this is before implementing any real austerity measures of note. So the likelihood that Spain will actually go forany of the ECB's "conditions" is remote. Indeed, Spanish politicians have shown that they want their funding "unconditional."

Spanish PM Rajoy challenges the European central bank and Germany

Spain will consider seeking extra aid from Europe on top of a 100 billion Euro rescue of its financial sector but does not see any need for new conditions, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said in an interview published in European newspapers.

http://en.mercopress.com/2012/09/03/...nk-and-germany

That one paragraph says it all: give me more money with no conditions.
This is coming from a man who demands €100 billion in bailout funds, threatens to blow up the EU, and then goes to watch a soccer match once he's got the money.

This attitude as it appears to be endemic for Spanish politicians:

Catalonia asks for €5bn bailout from Spain

Spain's north-eastern region of Catalonia, which represents around a fifth of the country's economic output, will tap a state liquidity facility for just over €5bn, a spokeswoman for the region's economy head has said.

We will not accept political conditions for the aid," she added. Of Spain's 17 regions, Valencia and Murcia have also said they would need recourse to the fund.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...rom-Spain.html

Again, give "me more money with no conditions."

In closing, the new ECB program will ultimately prove to be Mario Draghi's big bluff. By presenting an old, failed program as something "new" and "unlimited" in scope, the ECB has actually shown that it's essentially out of firepower.

Indeed, consider the following...
The ECB says it will buy EU sovereign bonds if EU nations apply for bailouts from the EFSF. Spain and Italy (the very countries that need bailouts) are meant to supply 30% of the EFSF's funding.

So this new program involves Spain and Italybailing themselves out, while simultaneously implementing austerity measures so the ECB will buy their sovereign bonds?!?!

Oh, and by the way, the EFSF only has €65 billion in funding left. That will definitely be enough to bailout Spain and Italy, seeing as Greece has received over €200 billion in bailouts is still imploding.

On that note, if you are not preparing for a bloodbath in the markets, now is the time to do so. The reality is that the Central Banks are fast losing their grip on the markets. They'll never admit this publicly, but I can assure you that Bernanke and pals are scared stiff by what's happening in the banking system right now.

CurrencyMan:

I am looking forward to both September 12, 2012 when the German court rules and of course Thursday at 12:30 PM EST when the great one releases the PLAN.

For Canadians here that is NOT Wayne Gretsky...

Then the Press Conference at 2:15 PM

September 13, 2012 just might be the Financial Event of the Year.

Expectations are so high now that I can only see in my opinion a big letdown for those that think that Magic is real.

Jim Rogers sees it clearly. Bill Gross sees it clearly. Jim Sinclair sees it clearly.

How do you see it ?

Dow Futures down 20 now with Oil down and Gold down $7.00 to $1733 so we have a start of a risk off day.

The KEY is the Money Flow from Equities to US Bonds.

The Yield on the 2 Year US Bonds is .25% and the Yield on the 10 Year US Bonds is 1.67% with the spread being 142 Basis points.

For those that do not understand the importance of this I will offer an explanation.

When there is Risk Off money flows to safety. Safety for the moment for two reasons is US Bonds.

Reason One is that you get Safety and Yield. Reason Two there is no where else to go unless you prefer Greek Bonds at 25%.

Then we look at which US Bonds are attracting the money flow.

There are 2 Year US Bonds and 5 Year US Bonds and 10 Year US Bonds along with 30 Year US Bonds.

The main one to watch is the Yield on the 10 Year US Bonds. The other is the 2 Year US Bonds.

If Risk Off appears to be for a longer period then MORE Funds will flow into the 10 Year US Bonds to get the BETTER Yield while it is parked there longer than in the 2 Year US Bonds.

There is also other factors such as Operation Twist.

The GAME is somewhat fixed as the Main Bond Brokers know what the FED is planning before most others so they FRONT RUN and purchase the US Bonds so that they can sell them later at a nice profit. Buying and Selling Billions of US Bonds at a profit of even 1 or 2 Basis Points is an excellent profit.


Whenever there is a Major News Release such as NFP the Key is to Look at the US Bond Yields. The Dow and Gold Indexes are also important to see where the MONEY is flowing.

Once you see some MOMENTUM you can get an Edge in going in that direction.

If the Dow were to go down 100 today and at the moment all I know for sure is that the Futures are down 17 and that is good to know.

Watch what happens as it moves down if it does or even move up as it did the other day. Things go in reverse on Risk On as MONEY leaves the US Bonds and US Dollars are sold to buy other Asset Classes.

I hope some of you found this post useful.

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120910173926/

Euro retreats mildly as the week starts but stays firm so far even though there were news that troika has rejected a EUR 2b part of the EUR 12b austerity package of Greece. Greek socialist leader Venizelos note that "troika has not accepted all the measures" but he assured there Greece has "alternative proposals". Meanwhile, finance minister Stournaras played down the the news and said only a "few" measures was rejected. Troika came back to Greece last week for the review and is expected to "stay for a while". Prime minister Samaras is expected to meet with troika today to continue the discussion. Also, troika is expected to finish the final report for EU before the EcoFin meeting in early October for approving Greece's request for two year extension in its fiscal adjustment program.

European Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said over the weekend that ECB's Outright Monetary Transactions is a "very clear framework" and "there has to be a request by member state first" before EU, ECB and possibly IMF too, will define specific conditionality. Regarding Spain, Rehn noted that there are "clear path of fiscal adjustment" and "policy agenda for structural reform" already. And Rehn noted that Spain should have done enough to comply with the OMT's conditions should they seek help.
IMF chief Lagarde hailed that ECB gave a "clear indication of the framework in which it would be an active player in restoring the situation in the eurozone". And she pledged that IMF is "ready to help and to assist in the design and monitoring of eventual programmes." She also hailed that Spain and Italy had taken strong measures that were “adequate in and of themselves.” and said it's up to the country's decision to seek help or not.

Elsewhere, dollar remains generally soft despite mild recovery. The weaker than expected made this week's FOMC meeting relatively more important even though no drastic changes are expected by the markets so far. Fed would release new economic projections and might push the low rate pledge into 2015. But there is just very slim chance that Fed would announce new stimulus, in particular considering the ECB's OMT announce had already given financial markets a very strong boost last week.

Latest CFTC report showed that on September 4, comparing to a week ago, net euro shorts was basically unchanged at 102.3k contracts. Net yen longs rose slightly from 21.5k to 24.0k contracts. Sterling positions remained relatively neutral, changed from 2k net longs to 6.9k net shorts. Australian dollar net longs dropped sharply from 78.0k to 62.4k.

Meanwhile, Canadian dollar net longs rose for another week from 60.9k to 66.5k.

On the data front, Japan GDP was revised down to 0.2% qoq in Q2 while GDP deflator was revised higher to -0.9% yoy. Current account surplus narrowed to JPY 0.34T. Australian home loans dropped -1.0% in July. Japan household confidence improved slightly to 40.5 in August. Eurozone Sentix investor confidence will be released while US economic calendar is empty.

Is that Double Vouch feature available yet?

Monday, September 10, 2012 7:52:28 AM


Top Stories

Government to cut AIG stake. The Treasury confirmed it's putting another $18B worth of AIG (AIG) stock on the block, as observers recently anticipated. AIG plans to buy up to $5B worth of the shares at the IPO price. Premarket: AIG -1.85% (6:30 ET).

BP in asset sale talks. BP (BP) is reportedly in negotiations to sell assets in Gulf of Mexico oil fields to Plains Exploration & Production (PXP) for $7B, which is above the latter's market cap of $5.2B. The deal would be part of BP's efforts to raise money to pay for the fallout from the 2010 oil spill; so far, the company has agreed to sell $26.5B worth of the $38B in assets that it has earmarked for sale.

Top Stock News

Glencore touts Xstrata offer. Glencore (GLCNF.PK) provided details of its improved $36B bid for Xstrata (XSRAY.PK, XSRAF.PK), saying that the offer of 3.05 shares per Xstrata share represents a 27% premium based on stock prices last week. Xstrata shareholder Knight Vinke rejected the new proposal, although Standard Life Investments supports it. Qatar Holdings, the key player, has so far remained silent.

Transocean nabs rig deal. Transocean (RIG) agreed to sell 38 shallow-water drilling rigs to P-E backed Shelf Drilling International for $1.05B, with the amount comprising $855M in cash and $195M of seller financing in the form of preference shares. Following the deal, Transocean will take a Q3 impairment charge. Shares +2.4% premarket (6:45 ET).

ArcelorMittal reaches union deal. ArcelorMittal (MT) reached a new 3-year labor agreement with the United Steelworkers union following the expiry of the old contract on September 1. The deal covers almost 14,000 workers in 8 states, with the USW saying it protects current and future retirees, increases wages and improves healthcare. The agreement follows one between the USW and U.S. Steel last week. Shares -0.4% premarket (6:45 ET).

RBS eyes settlement. RBS (RBS) is in talks with the U.K.'s Financial Services Authority to settle allegations about its involvement in the Libor scandal, Bloomberg reported. The bank will probably have to pay more than the £290M that Barclays agreed to pay for its role. UBS (UBS) is also in negotiations with authorities in the U.S. and U.K. over resolving Libor allegations. Premarket: RBS +2.4% (6:45 ET).

License to list. MGM hopes to complete its IPO before the release of the new James Bond film, "Skyfall," in late October, Bloomberg reported. The idea is to benefit from the huge publicity that invariably accompanies Bond movies. The pricing of the offering could determine whether MGM carries out the IPO or considers acquisition offers.

Rising cost of compliance. Complying with tighter fracking regulations on federal lands will cost $253,839 per well, said EOG Resources (EOG) and officials from Wyoming and Utah, citing a study from John Dunham & Associates. That's well above the $11,833 that the Bureau of Land Management estimates, and would cost natural gas producers a total of $1.5B-$1.62B a year.

Leviathan rights for sale. The consortium that develops the Leviathan natural gas field off Israel's coast, in which Noble Energy (NBL) and Delek (DK) own large holdings, is considering offers from "leading international companies" to sell up to 30% rights to the field. Leviathan has estimated reserves of 17T cubic feet of gas, with the group hoping to find 600M barrels of oil as well.

Top Economic & Other News

Japan GDP slower than estimated. Japanese Q2 GDP rose 0.7% Q/Q, half the initial estimate of +1.4% and below consensus of +1%. GDP fell a nominal 1% in annualized terms vs. +5.5% in Q1. The current account surplus declined 41% to ¥625.4B ($8B) in July. With the economy losing momentum, economists increasingly expect Japan to slip into contraction this quarter.

Another bank failure. First Commercial Bank of Bloomington, Minnesota became the 41st U.S. bank failure of the year on Friday. Republic Bank & Trust of Louisville, Kentucky will assume about $207M in deposits and acquire assets with a book value of approximately $194M at a discount of $79M. The total cost to the FDIC's deposit-insurance fund: $63.9M.

Overseeing the overseers. Legislators are promoting a bipartisan bill in the Senate that would give the White House influence over the SEC, the CFTC and other financial regulators in the rule-making process, and would force the agencies to carefully analyze the economic impact of new regulation. A Senate panel is due to debate the plan this month, although with elections looming, the bill's future is uncertain.

China CPI as expected. Chinese CPI rose 2% Y/Y, in-line with consensus and up from an increase of 1.8% in July. The increase was fueled by the price of food, which rose 3.4% vs. an increase of 2.4% in July. August PPI signals deflation, falling 3.5% vs. -2.9% in July and consensus of -3.2%. Fixed-asset investment in non-rural areas rose 20.2% in January-August vs. +20.4% in January-July.

China trade surplus beats forecasts. China's trade surplus came in at $26.7B in August, up from $25.1B in July and well ahead of forecasts of $17.2B. Exports rose 2.7% Y/Y vs. consensus of +3%. Imports fell 2.6% vs. consensus of +3.4%. Bank of America economist Ting Lu said the fall in imports is "not good, but not that scary," explaining that falling commodity prices played a key part.


Today's Markets:

In Asia, Japan flat at 8869. Hong Kong +0.1% to 19827. China +0.3% to 2135. India +0.1% to 17767.

In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris -0.1%. Frankfurt flat.

Futures at 7:00: Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.15%. Crude flat at $96.42. Gold -0.3% to $1733.50.

Today's economic calendar:

10:00 Employment Trends Index
3:00 PM Consumer Credit

Pink sleepy ostrich.

Daily Forex Brief

London: Monday 10th September 2012

More hurdles ahead

Risk assets and currencies just love the smell of printing presses in the morning. Friday's payrolls makes it virtually a fait accompli that the Fed will implement some form of QE when they meet on Thursday, providing a further boost for risk appetite after Super Mario's commitment to unlimited ECB bond purchases the previous day. The single currency is now up near 1.28, the Aussie almost touched 1.04, the gold price surged more than USD 40 and European equities celebrated some more. In contrast, the dollar was on the back-foot, with the dollar index falling to a four-month low. Indeed, the dollar index has lost 4% since late July. Looming on the horizon are some more big hurdles. The German Constitutional Court is expected to rule on Wednesday regarding the legality of the European Stability Mechanism.

Dutch elections are being held midweek as well, amidst legitimate concerns that it could take some considerable time to form a new coalition government. In Spain, a crucial audit aimed at identifying the capital requirements of Spain's beleaguered banks is due later this week, and the troika is continuing the process of reviewing Greek government finances.
http://webr.emv2.com/fxpro/fxpro-newDB.gifhttp://webr.emv2.com/fxpro/daily-briefDB.gifhttp://webr.emv2.com/fxpro/marketnewsDB.gifhttp://www.fxpro.com/sites/default/f...rf%2024h_0.png

are you stalking me??

hmm.. i hope he can triple vouch or more..

Yep I think so

Only The Shadow Knows...

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD&tf=h1

Timeframe: 5 minute | hourly | daily | weeklyhttp://finviz.com/gfx/nic2x2.gifhttp://finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?euru...28647249177500

still under 200 day SMA at 1.2838
I hope this .... bullish momentum end soon

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/

Snippet:




German Constitutional Court Approval of ESM Not a Done Deal; Draghi's Fatal Mistake?



One puzzling aspect of ECB president Mario' Draghi's Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) plan to save the eurozone is his doing so before the German constitutional court had approved the ESM.

In spite of Draghi's emphasis on conditionality, OMT puts Germany directly at risk in an unlimited way. This modification to the ESM makes the constitutional case against it is much stronger.

I am not the only one who feels that way. Even the pro-bailout Eurointelligence site sees it that way.

Here are some snips from the Eurointelligence Daily Briefing report A new legal case against ESM – that links Draghi’s OMT to the current case

This is the week in the which the German constitutional court will announce the most important ruling in its history. Herbert Prantl reports in Suddeutsche Zeitung on a new anti-euro case this morning that links last week’s decision by the ECB to start Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) to the current ESM case. The case was brought by Peter Gauweiler, a well-known Eurosceptic member of the Bundestag from the Bavarian CSU, and a serial litigator. Gauweiler argues that the OMT had fundamentally altered the ESM, and that the decision on the ESM should therefore be postponed (meaning a delay in the ratification by Germany). He also makes the legal points that the OMT decision did not constitute a breach of competence, but a permanent assumption of competences. When the Bundestag voted on the ESM, it did so under different circumstances. With the OMT, the Bundestag’s authority is permanently circumvented.

Spiegel Online reports on the increased nervousness in Berlin ahead of the court’s ruling. It says the government really has no Plan B in the event of a No vote, and remarks that the court is likely to take Gauweiler’s case very seriously, plus the fact that 37,000 citizens have joined the case (in a kind of class-action constitutional lawsuit). It also quotes views among top coalition MPs who have expressed misgivings about the ECB’s decision.

(Gauweiler’s motives are transparent, but the legal argument is quite strong in our view. The entire euro rescue effort is legally tenuous, and hard to square with what we already know about the German constitutional court’s interpretation of the Treaties, and its views on the scope and limits of financial crisis management. We know out of experience that it is always wrong to second-guess this fiercely independent court. The only thing we do know, in contrast to many financial market participants, is that the court will not take into account the financial market reaction of its decision.)

Draghi's Fatal Mistake?

I certainly do not agree with Draghi, but the man clearly is not a dunce. Was there a strong reason to announce OMT, altering the ESM, before it was approved?

Certainly, yields went into the stratosphere a few weeks ago. Yet, mere talk of rate caps and unlimited bond buying had yields collapsing last week.

Did Draghi feel he could not wait another week? Did see a need to strike first, fearing the court may otherwise have laid down guidelines against his OMT?

Perhaps Draghi wanted to bring this all to a head right here right now, the sooner the better, even if it meant the court might rule on the need for a referendum.

From that aspect, (and from the point of view of the pro-bailout crowd) the sooner Germany has a referendum, the more likely it would pass.

A year ago I think a referendum would have passed with flying colors. Now 54% of Germans Want the Constitutional Court to Kill the ESM.

With each passing day, more Germans are upset at the economy and the bailouts on top of it (see Germany Trifecta: Steep Drop in Construction New Business, Services New Business, Manufacturing New Business) and an increasingly large group want Germany out of the eurozone completely.

Perhaps we should not overthink this.

Occam's Razor suggests Draghi simply made a mistake in failing to see the bitter response from Germany and the potential implications down the road.

I had been thinking the court would easily approve the ESM, but with reservations. However, the OMT changed the odds quite a bit. Regardless, we are going to find out one way or another in two days.


Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...z1GHuJcQCvz.99

We're going on a wood chopping expedition Watson.