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EurAnalysis

  • #53,661
  • Sep 10, 2012 2:13am Sep 10, 2012 2:13am
Quoting Wulfgar
man my coffee habit is getting expensive
haha, after our country joined EU back in 2004 since then our family is complaining about coffee price
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #53,662
  • Sep 10, 2012 2:20am Sep 10, 2012 2:20am
Quoting Wulfgar
man my coffee habit is getting expensive
Cocoa is cheap today. It's loaded with caffeine also
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,663
  • Sep 10, 2012 2:20am Sep 10, 2012 2:20am
Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning everyone.

I hope you all had a great weekend and got some much needed rest & relaxation. We have a very interesting and potentially short term sentiment changing events coming up. Before I get into that, I want to draw you all a little mental picture of where we currently stand.

The ECB has a plan to purchase an unlimited amount of short dated bonds in the secondary market on the basis of repairing the broken transmission of monetary policy. Such bond buying will require the recipient country to apply for aid from the EFSF/ESM...
Great commentary PT, as always. I have to agree with you 110% , here are the levels ill be watching.... 1.2950 a break above of this level will see us go to 1.3050/1.31 of which will be resistance (being the bottom of the range from Jan - Apr) 1.2680 is the new support level of which ill be waiting to go short at if we break this level with 25-35 pip breakout filter. Otherwise will wait patiently to see if we reach the 1.3050/1.31 and would short from there. Of course a break above this resistance level will indicate to me that we confirm change of trend and i will only look to go long EURUSD with a bullish outlook only and if we break the level 1.3450 (top of range from Jan-Apr)

Good luck and green pips to all!
Cheers!!
  • #53,664
  • Sep 10, 2012 2:35am Sep 10, 2012 2:35am
*sigh*... intraday trading the LO because I cant sleep and frankly I ave no clue where the market is headed till we get to either the 1.3072 or the 1.2460

Long from 1.2782 right now... just playin pure PA... looking for a reaction at the 1.2795 to lock in and keep rollin on up...
  • #53,665
  • Sep 10, 2012 2:40am Sep 10, 2012 2:40am
Quoting Ken A
Teasing with foods should be banned. Now I am hungry.
Good morning. 100% pro .

Btw, i am thinking of your gold question, but it is kinda hard.

But if you want to read about gold, I suggest http://www.gold.org/investment/research/

Really lot of info in there.

t
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,666
  • Sep 10, 2012 2:41am Sep 10, 2012 2:41am
Quoting rekon67
CGB agreed!

Now as far as candle stick pattern is concerned, we have to wait for Monday candle close to agree on Marubozu.

I am pretty much sure I do not have to wait for 1.30 level for break even my positions, Monday UK session first half will be enough for me to set those at BE.
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  • #53,667
  • Sep 10, 2012 2:46am Sep 10, 2012 2:46am
Quoting Wulfgar
*sigh*... intraday trading the LO because I cant sleep and frankly I ave no clue where the market is headed till we get to either the 1.3072 or the 1.2460

Long from 1.2782 right now... just playin pure PA... looking for a reaction at the 1.2795 to lock in and keep rollin on up...
out +13... waiting for the 82 to sort out... *yawn*

well and the 95 now needs to hold as resistance... .. a retest would be nice...
  • #53,668
  • Sep 10, 2012 2:46am Sep 10, 2012 2:46am
Quoting Wulfgar
*sigh*... intraday trading the LO because I cant sleep and frankly I ave no clue where the market is headed till we get to either the 1.3072 or the 1.2460

Long from 1.2782 right now... just playin pure PA... looking for a reaction at the 1.2795 to lock in and keep rollin on up...
until i see a convincing break between the high of friday and the low of today, i am range trading scalps....so far so good, but i'm being very careful and not heavily leveraged with tight stops....
  • #53,669
  • Sep 10, 2012 2:50am Sep 10, 2012 2:50am
Quoting PipTrapper
[b]Today’s orderboard

Written by Pete Jackson
September 10, 2012 at 06:35 GMT

[i][color="DarkSlateBlue"]EUR/USD: Offers 1.2800/20 (late Fri NY high 1.2817) ahead of tech res 1.2835/40 (200 day MA 1.2838). Also barrier talk 1.2825 and 1.2850. Buy stops through 1.2850. Bids 1.2750/60 and 1.2700/10

GBP/USD: Offers 1.6025/35 (Fri high 1.2035) possible buy stops above. Bids 1.5940/50 ahead of 1.5920/30 (Fri lows 1.5923)

EUR/GBP: Offers...
What Do you think of QE3 . this fed meeting ben may announce it ? as the NFP nos. are not good enough i would say
finding A M S
  • #53,670
  • Sep 10, 2012 2:53am Sep 10, 2012 2:53am
Quoting prashant7
What Do you think of QE3 . this fed meeting ben may announce it ? as the NFP nos. are not good enough i would say
PT's morning commentary covered that very nicely.......
  • #53,671
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:02am Sep 10, 2012 3:02am
Technicaly the EURO/USD rally looks overdone on my charts.
It did a first test of the upper Bollinger band 2.5 std.dev on the daily 20 at 1.2816 on friday.
We have a descending 200 daily sma which should prove out as some resistance.

I think the commodity crosses (EURO/CAD, EURO/AUD) are worth keeping on the screen for the following reason as indicators of market sentiment.

The ECB has lowered its collateral standards for what it will accept as legitimate assets to lend against. This in turn is a sign of quantity wise diminishing Banking assets of Europes banking sector. This is a sign that the tide has not turned and that Banks are still on a slippery slope downwards. The recession/depression is not abbatting and Banks are still having more problems in the loan portfolios then less.

How the market interprets this will be reflected in the sentiment for inflation/deflation and will impact money flows which is what determines price direction. A continued liquidation of the carry trade is risk off sentiment taking hold. If instead the EURO resumes being used as a funding currency against the CAD and AUD then one knows the markets have more substance to them and the market is believing that the recent ECB moves will be effective. Carry trades are of long duration so for money to be deployed in that manner says the analysis is not all Hopium.

If we are going to get a sharp directional move in some EURO based market it should show itself in commodity crosses before the main pair EURO/USD takes on direction.
  • #53,672
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:05am Sep 10, 2012 3:05am
Quoting foto
If we are going to get a sharp directional move in some EURO based market it should show itself in commodity crosses before the main pair EURO/USD takes on direction.
my take also, thats why i'm watching the AUD very carefully..it has made some lower lows beyond the end of day range from friday, but is having trouble breaking its daily pivot....if it breaks that pivot, then i'm looking for the euro to also finally break this range and go south a bit
  • #53,673
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:06am Sep 10, 2012 3:06am
Quoting nathan25x
until i see a convincing break between the high of friday and the low of today, i am range trading scalps....so far so good, but i'm being very careful and not heavily leveraged with tight stops....
ya its just simple PA stuff for me too... got 6 trades in over the last couple hours... +52 total... 5 winners and a loss...

letting the 82 sort out here... looking for a continuation to add short if it holds(currently short from 93)... take it down and see how the 74 does next...

Im just trading each mini channel... they will eventually break then just ride the pig


simples
  • #53,674
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:09am Sep 10, 2012 3:09am
Quoting nathan25x
my take also, thats why i'm watching the AUD very carefully..it has made some lower lows beyond the end of day range from friday, but is having trouble breaking its daily pivot....if it breaks that pivot, then i'm looking for the euro to also finally break this range and go south a bit
the other scenerio is that the AUD stays sticky at its pivot and everything continues sidways until the overbought condition on the EURUSD 4hr is relieved a bit, then another attempt at the high is made at some point...

good chance for a break south though...at least 40 pips or so
  • #53,675
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:12am Sep 10, 2012 3:12am
Quoting Wulfgar
ya its just simple PA stuff for me too... got 6 trades in over the last couple hours... +52 total... 5 winners and a loss...

letting the 82 sort out here... looking for a continuation to add short if it holds(currently short from 93)... take it down and see how the 74 does next...

Im just trading each mini channel... they will eventually break then just ride the pig


simples
yep
  • #53,676
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:14am Sep 10, 2012 3:14am
Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning everyone
Again, such a nice summary. Keep up the good work mate.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,677
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:16am Sep 10, 2012 3:16am
pip perfect... PA trading is easy and profitable... just tedious an I hate being up these hours... lol


orders from 95 locked in... looking for a retest of the 82 and Ill add more shorts.... break and close of the 82 nullifies the move and back to the 95 we go(Ill grab another +10 if that happens)
  • #53,678
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:16am Sep 10, 2012 3:16am
Quoting prashant7
What Do you think of QE3 . this fed meeting ben may announce it ? as the NFP nos. are not good enough i would say
I've already said it all in my morning update.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,679
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:16am Sep 10, 2012 3:16am
Quoting prashant7
What Do you think of QE3 . this fed meeting ben may announce it ? as the NFP nos. are not good enough i would say
He told it in morning update. One post above orderboard. Also, he has quite obvious signature.

edit: Lol PT
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,680
  • Sep 10, 2012 3:18am Sep 10, 2012 3:18am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
He told it in morning update. One post above orderboard. Also, he has quite obvious signature.

edit: Lol PT
I just noticed the signature
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
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