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  • #689,841
  • Sep 9, 2012 8:05pm Sep 9, 2012 8:05pm
Chinese data out - green data but devil in detail not good

chinise import fall 2.6%
Mohan
  • #689,842
  • Sep 9, 2012 8:13pm Sep 9, 2012 8:13pm
Quoting almo
Mohan - the US has no intention of a QE3.


As I've said before - the problem is not money liquidity , the problem is lack of quality jobs. Throwing more money into the mix will not fix that, and the Fed's are well aware of this. The first 2 QE's were needed to resolve money supply issues. There is plenty of money available , for anyone that is capable of securing a loan.

Until jobs start getting created, there are two certain things - 1) there will be no QE3 and 2) there will be no interest rate hikes.
The QE3 talks were nothing a mere tactic to give investor "hope." The only reasons the US markets are hitting four year highs is due to the QE speculation. Is is an attempt to cover how bad the economy is by having what seems to be at first sight a strong financial market, and we all know thats not the case. Furthermore, what will QE really accomplish. The US 10-year is 1.6-7%? That is like a 4-handle lower than Spain's 10-y. EZ has a reason for QE. The US is manipulating the surface appearance. It is like having well-manicured lawn around a tin house. It may look ok on the outside until you step inside and realize its a bloody fecking tin house.

The funny thing is, it almost does not matter at this point. Just the fact Benny-Boo has it as a "tool" is more than enough reason to be "excited." The US jobs report was 30k lower than forecasted, previous month was revised down and the S&P was up 23 pts. What? How? Who? QE3.

Even if the US does not get it, and the markets tank 1,000 pts. traders still make money. It would be daft to think that market participants care. What they care about it are money producing opportunities.

It's sad, but true.

Full Disclosure: Long on "hope." Short on politicians and central banks' decision making abilities and credibility for the next three months.
  • #689,843
  • Edited 8:36pm Sep 9, 2012 8:22pm | Edited 8:36pm
Quoting almo
TY Mike...

Sometimes, to get to an answer, you have to ask the right questions. I'm not saying I have the answers, but based on the recent market moves, I believe I have an educated guess as to what is really happening.

I'd expect a few people will post some very good counter arguements...hopefully between all the questions/comments, we can ascertain the truth.
I am following your posts with interests my friend.

The truth? Huum . There is not absolute truth and holding one will make us too rigid to flow with the uncertainty of the psychological of the masses. Being nimble and humble will make us flow with it

But I agree with you, we cannot compete with deep pockets regarding information unless we are able to filter those information bringing in our creativity which is subjective. (The deal is made)

That is our edge with the combination of deep knowledge of price action and TA.
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #689,844
  • Sep 9, 2012 8:28pm Sep 9, 2012 8:28pm
Quoting Mike8
I am following your posts with interests my friend.

The truth? Huum . There is not absolute truth and holding one will make us too rigid to flow with the uncertainty of the psychological of the masses. Being nimble and humble will make us flow with it

But I agree with you, with cannot compete with deep pockets regarding information unless we are able to filter those information bringing in our creativity which is subjective. (The deal is made)

That is our edge with the combination of deep knowledge of price action and TA.
Wow, got a bit philosophical all of a sudden lol. There is truth in the world. It is indisputable by definition. However, it is all our own perceptions where truth gets cut up and reformed.
  • #689,845
  • Sep 9, 2012 8:50pm Sep 9, 2012 8:50pm
Quoting pip_trader
However, it is all our own perceptions where truth gets cut up and reformed.
LOL. Yes, you said it. So no absolute truth.

"Nothing perceived is independent of perception, and perception differs not from the perceiver; therefore the (perceived ) universe is nothing but the perceiver." From a Text in the Ancient Science of the Soul.

To me is important to understand the psychology of the masses to be able to make money into the market, now how can we understand the psychology of the masses if we do not understand ourselves? No possible in my view.

So understanding human condition is a prerogative (for us retailers) to be able to bring in our creativity to filter what will be the right opportunity for us to make money. (What Almo was saying if I am not mistaken, "the deal is already made")
It is just another setup.
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #689,846
  • Sep 9, 2012 8:55pm Sep 9, 2012 8:55pm
Quoting almo
For the sake of arguement..let's say your right...e vote will be a major market mover.


Now I ask you.....is it prudent to take a trade prior to the news, or wait for the outcome?


What if you already knew the outcome, would you take the trade?

What if the outcome is already known in the banking world, and your just starting to see it? What would you expect to be seeing if that was the case?


Yeah....I'm thinking that the outcome has been known for a lot longer than all of us think. Possibly since July 19th.
Hey almo, sorry was waiting to see if could get hourly close cable below 1 600

Anyway, is huge question, maybe I was not clear with my words, my point was not so much about the exact court out come , the realisation and how the market interpreted it.

eg, If greece govt, cannot agree to further austerity required, there will be no bailout for them irrespective of the court desicion
hence merkel will save face & and job, and will be voluntary / push grexit

The crimson council will be bound by law, them and govt have never seen eye to eye, it could turn out a penis size contest

I dont think market has shown any new clear signs of direction or direction change
eg EU, Daily Yes her has taken out a secondary previous high 2746 and presently tapped another secondary previous hgh 2813 but weekly previous high is 3482
This bear train started 1 4938 May 1st 2011 38 fib is around my monthly level 3108ish so for me until bulls take out 3108ish confirming by taking out weekly previous high 3482 otherwise we still on a weekly "Bear Train"

Bro my EU books will be closed Wednesday, some accounts will grow up and some accounts will blow up, I have also reduced all 3 accounts to the bare minimum, and happy to wait until the dust settles
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #689,847
  • Sep 9, 2012 9:20pm Sep 9, 2012 9:20pm
Quoting Mike8
LOL. Yes, you said it. So no absolute truth.

"Nothing perceived is independent of perception, and perception differs not from the perceiver; therefore the (perceived ) universe is nothing but the perceiver." From a Text in the Ancient Science of the Soul.

To me is important to understand the psychology of the masses to be able to make money into the market, now how can we understand the psychology of the masses if we do not understand ourselves? No possible in my view.

So understanding human condition is a prerogative (for us retailers)...
Well, I guess it depends on how you look at it (i.e. perception) lol.
  • #689,848
  • Sep 9, 2012 9:31pm Sep 9, 2012 9:31pm
Quoting pip_trader
Well, I guess it depends on how you look at it (i.e. perception) lol.
Not important my friend, I am doing some renovation in the house so to alter that with a bit of this or a bit of that is pretty good before Frankie opens.

I am thinking to buy a bit of cable just to get feel if I can get at a price that I think is convenient and so on...

What about you, what have you got plan for the day? What is your bias on eurusd? Are you in?

Only is you like to articulate.
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #689,849
  • Sep 9, 2012 9:37pm Sep 9, 2012 9:37pm
Quoting Mike8
Not important my friend, I am doing some renovation in the house so to alter that with a bit of this or a bit of that is pretty good before Frankie opens.

I am thinking to buy a bit of cable just to get feel if I can get at a price that I think is convenient and so on...

What about you, what have you got plan for the day? What is your bias on eurusd? Are you in?

Only is you like to articulate.
Lol. Good luck on those renovations. I don't follow Cable on a daily basis, but I think it would only me healthy for a pull back on the EUR. I will watch and see what happens at london before I move. It is down a little, but the volume is nothing to be excited about. I been short AUDJPY since last week and is working so far. Looks like it will continue downwards.

Looked at EURUSD and see bit of a triple top on 4H
  • #689,850
  • Sep 9, 2012 9:46pm Sep 9, 2012 9:46pm
German lawmaker Gauweiler files complaint against the ECB plan, seeks to delay the Sep. 12 High Court ruling.



hmmmmmm major talking points this week..
German High Court ruling and 13 Sep FOMC press
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #689,851
  • Sep 9, 2012 9:46pm Sep 9, 2012 9:46pm
EUR is approaching the 50-day DEMA; maybe downward for a bit of a scalp.
  • #689,852
  • Sep 9, 2012 9:47pm Sep 9, 2012 9:47pm
Quoting pip_trader
Lol. Good luck on those renovations. I don't follow Cable on a daily basis, but I think it would only me healthy for a pull back on the EUR. I will watch and see what happens at london before I move. It is down a little, but the volume is nothing to be excited about. I been short AUDJPY since last week and is working so far. Looks like it will continue downwards.

Looked at EURUSD and see bit of a triple top on 4H
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #689,853
  • Sep 9, 2012 9:51pm Sep 9, 2012 9:51pm
Quoting johncen
German lawmaker Gauweiler files complaint against the ECB plan, seeks to delay the Sep. 12 High Court ruling.

hmmmmmm major talking points this week..
German High Court ruling and 13 Sep FOMC press
Has been about other leaked reports arrrgh what a bunch of wahaankers

A little insight into the real EU probelm "Spain"


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...html?mg=id-wsj

http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/20...nancing-needs/
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #689,854
  • Sep 9, 2012 9:58pm Sep 9, 2012 9:58pm
standard dialy open trade sell top zone buy the bottom and wait breakout

If her can stay below 1 6000 my bias remain short, bbl dinnertime
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable 1hr 9 9 2012.jpg Size: 86 KB
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #689,855
  • Sep 9, 2012 10:17pm Sep 9, 2012 10:17pm
For several weeks, I have had a pending order to long the EUR-CHF with an entry at 1.2006 and TP set at 1.2013; the order was triggered once about 3 weeks or so ago and earned me a useful £70.

For what must be several months the pair have been stable at around 1.2011 +/- a couple of pips but for some reason the price shot up about 5 days ago, since when it has no longer stayed in the usual tight range but now seems to fluctuate quite considerably.

Have I missed something here? What has suddenly changed to cause this? Has the SNB had a radical change of policy?

Maybe Killerwhale can enlighten me, please?

Thanks in anticipation.
  • #689,856
  • Sep 9, 2012 10:29pm Sep 9, 2012 10:29pm
Quoting Vectamart
For several weeks, I have had a pending order to long the EUR-CHF with an entry at 1.2006 and TP set at 1.2013; the order was triggered once about 3 weeks or so ago and earned me a useful £70.

For what must be several months the pair have been stable at around 1.2011 +/- a couple of pips but for some reason the price shot up about 5 days ago, since when it has no longer stayed in the usual tight range but now seems to fluctuate quite considerably.

Have I missed something here? What has suddenly changed to cause this? Has the SNB had a radical...
snb rumours of raising the floor
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #689,857
  • Sep 9, 2012 10:53pm Sep 9, 2012 10:53pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
snb rumours of raising the floor
The SNB must be awash with euros already and yet they are still buying? Amazing.
  • #689,858
  • Sep 9, 2012 10:55pm Sep 9, 2012 10:55pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
Has been about other leaked reports arrrgh what a bunch of wahaankers

A little insight into the real EU probelm "Spain"


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...html?mg=id-wsj

http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/20...nancing-needs/
thanks for sharing
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #689,859
  • Sep 9, 2012 11:11pm Sep 9, 2012 11:11pm
Quoting johncen
thanks for sharing
John

How you doing, did Liverpool play this weekend, I am sure you already know Del Piero is coming to Sydney. Lucky him.
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #689,860
  • Sep 9, 2012 11:14pm Sep 9, 2012 11:14pm
Quoting Vectamart
For several weeks, I have had a pending order to long the EUR-CHF with an entry at 1.2006 and TP set at 1.2013; the order was triggered once about 3 weeks or so ago and earned me a useful £70.

For what must be several months the pair have been stable at around 1.2011 +/- a couple of pips but for some reason the price shot up about 5 days ago, since when it has no longer stayed in the usual tight range but now seems to fluctuate quite considerably.

Have I missed something here? What has suddenly changed to cause this? Has the SNB had a radical...
Don't know exactly why it happened, I don't trade it anymore, it was just too slow.
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