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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #53,461
  • Sep 8, 2012 10:06am Sep 8, 2012 10:06am
Quoting irfandbl
nothing is so special about 3126 actually Tom, it's just my prediction of W1 100% target,..
Yes, I have understood it is your prediction, I was just hoping you could share part of your analysis. I am now recalculating my targets because of this move and would like to know what others think of it. And I like math, to be honest .

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,462
  • Sep 8, 2012 10:10am Sep 8, 2012 10:10am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
... And I like math, to be honest .

T
1+1=2
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,463
  • Sep 8, 2012 10:14am Sep 8, 2012 10:14am
Quoting PipTrapper
1+1=2
1+1 actually equals 3 or more PT.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,464
  • Sep 8, 2012 10:18am Sep 8, 2012 10:18am
Quoting rekon67
Ha Ha! Ok I understand it is very risky doing counter trend with bullish PA.

Lets see What I have.

1. Picking up the Top: If I am buying it then it applies to Me, Since I am selling so I am actually taking the good values for the day to Short.

2. Overbought Pairs: All the EUR pairs were over 150 + pips for the day and it is not any intervention. It is Smart Money which is playing for hunting Stops.

3. Weekly Target: To me it is best RnR. In Monthly we have strong Resistences till 1.3080 and Heavy Supply. On the Low there is enough room...
Can't argue with #1. We pick the best place for our entries based on our conviction and they pray for the best.

For #2, the is no overbought condition in an uptrend as there are no oversold conditions in a downtrend.

For #3 and 4, if you are convinced there's good resistance at the 1.3080 level, wouldn't it be better to wait for that level and pick that top as you seem to believe it will offer good resistance? Once we near that level and your now 270 pips in the hole, you'll start to wonder "well, maybe I should have waited for a sign of reversal."

What I'm saying is that every resistance level and "it will go down from here" all of us have called for (the bear crow in this thread) has proven to be as solid as wet toilet paper, barely pausing, if at all, before pressing hard north.

I just think that at this point, we should be a little more careful in picking tops and actually observe a reversal, that being a daily close below the start of the last thrust upwards. This has yet to happen since the 1.2040 low.

I know you''re good with charts and candle stick interpretation (which is the reason why I vouched for you ), let me ask you a question... Based on candle stick patterns, would you buy the top of a 192 pips Full Marubozu?

When a "full marubozu" occurs, or one that is very close to
full, it is very well worth noting. If it is a white candle, then
it signals extreme conviction among buyers. Conversely, if it
is a dark candle, then it indicates sellers were eager to flee.
As always, you should pay careful attention to the next day's
trading to see if there is follow through. A full or nearly full
Marubozu implies that there is strong buying or selling
interest depending on the color. If there is follow-through
early the next day, the stock is likely to trend in that same
direction for the next few sessions. That awareness can be
important for the trader.

From the book "21 Candlesticks Every Trader Should Know" by Dr. Melvin Pasternak.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #53,465
  • Sep 8, 2012 10:21am Sep 8, 2012 10:21am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Yes, I have understood it is your prediction, I was just hoping you could share part of your analysis. I am now recalculating my targets because of this move and would like to know what others think of it. And I like math, to be honest .

T
I just use stochastic and fib level 61.8, 70, 85 and 100 as targets

I use 2146 as 0 fib level which is the low point of the candlestick which is vertically aligned with the lowest value stochastic line,
and 2636 as 50 fib level which is the high point of the candlestick which is vertically aligned with the stochastic line that crosses level 50 stochastic

and if you like math, here's my calculation in math

A = 2146
B = 2636

61.8% target = A + (( B - A) x 2) x 0.618 = 2752
70% target = A + (( B - A) x 2) x 0.7 = 2832
85% target = A + (( B - A) x 2) x 0.85 = 2979
100% target = B + ( B -A ) = 3126
  • #53,466
  • Sep 8, 2012 10:23am Sep 8, 2012 10:23am
Quoting Cgb
Can't argue with #1. We pick the best place for our entries based on our conviction and they pray for the best.

For #2, the is no overbought condition in an uptrend as there are no oversold conditions in a downtrend.

For #3 and 4, if you are convinced there's good resistance at the 1.3080 level, wouldn't it be better to wait for that level and pick that top as you seem to believe it will offer good resistance? Once we near that level and your now 270 pips in the hole, you'll start to wonder "well, maybe I should have waited for...
CGB agreed!

Now as far as candle stick pattern is concerned, we have to wait for Monday candle close to agree on Marubozu.

I am pretty much sure I do not have to wait for 1.30 level for break even my positions, Monday UK session first half will be enough for me to set those at BE.
  • #53,467
  • Sep 8, 2012 10:24am Sep 8, 2012 10:24am
Quoting PipTrapper
1+1=2
how come it shows 11 in my calculator

is it because it has "made in Taiwan" written on it?
  • #53,468
  • Sep 8, 2012 10:25am Sep 8, 2012 10:25am
Quoting Cgb
What I'm saying is that every resistance level and "it will go down from here" all of us have called for (the bear crow in this thread) has proven to be as solid as wet toilet paper, barely pausing, if at all, before pressing hard north.
Hahaha mate . Mine sure did, as well as lots of others. This really was face ripping short squeeze. It was not only bear crowd here, its everyone, Stock exchanges just went on party mode.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,469
  • Edited 11:10am Sep 8, 2012 10:31am | Edited 11:10am
Another source I use............Enjoy............

Inserted Video
  • #53,470
  • Edited 10:41am Sep 8, 2012 10:38am | Edited 10:41am
Quoting irfandbl
I use 2146 as 0 fib level which is the low point of the candlestick which is vertically aligned with the lowest value stochastic line,
and 2636 as 50 fib level which is the high point of the candlestick which is vertically aligned with the stochastic line that crosses level 50 stochastic
.
Now that is very interesting system of measuring possible trend strength. I knew doblece wouldnt vouch for you otherwise, so I was really looking forward for it.

Stoch can be usefull indicator and setting it at 98 days really could be good setup for wave of this lenght. Good luck with your research, I hope it pays out.

Thx,

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,471
  • Sep 8, 2012 10:44am Sep 8, 2012 10:44am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Now that is very interesting system of measuring possible trend strength. I knew doblece wouldnt vouch for you otherwise, so I was really looking forward for it.

Stoch can be usefull indicator and setting it at 98 days really could be good setup for wave of this lenght. Good luck with your research, I hope it pays out.

Thx,

T
Thanks Tom, have a great weekend!
  • #53,472
  • Edited 10:59am Sep 8, 2012 10:47am | Edited 10:59am
Quoting rekon67
CGB Mate,

Please don't mind I find you little disturbed from last two weeks. Everything ok there?
Thanks for asking Rekon, just pissed because I didn't close some shorts from a far lower level and feeling the pain from them right now.

There's also a growing concerns I have about the US dollar. I am more and more of the belief that it will continue to weaken and collaps under it's own weight. Forget the issues in Europe being solved or not, forget the notion if Spain/Italy will come crying for a bailout on their knees, or if Greece is not meeting the Troika's requirements for their bailout.

Indications right now are that the US ecomony is not recovering from the rescession. They are digging deeper into it. Will this spark another round of QE? My guess is not, but there will be other measure taken to try and prevent a further drop like raising interest rates. This will help momentarily but will cause hyperinflation and will lead to further currency weakness. Further currency weakness (namely the US Dollar) will propel the E/U pair north.

So my worry is that it's not Europe that's going to fall apart with their first failed sterilized ECB bound purchase under the new plan (which first a country needs to apply for it, agree to the austerity sanctions, then several weeks, if not months, of good sterilized bond buying by the ECB), but rather the US fill collapse under it's own weight before Europe does.

We've seen clear indications that there's been intervention over the last two weeks to prevent the US Dollar from free falling. When the markets hit their top and we're very, very close to that point, where will the money go? Into the US dollar? Some of it will, alot will go into gold/silver but what about the rest? Best short term yields right now are in Europe and they are guaranteed by the ECB as the ECB no longer has preferred status anymore.

To me the question is now; Which one fill fall harder? Europe or the USA.

Inserted Video
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #53,473
  • Sep 8, 2012 10:55am Sep 8, 2012 10:55am
Quoting Cgb
When the markets hit their top and we're very, very close to that point, where will the money go? Into the US dollar? Some of it will, alot will go into gold/silver but what about the rest? Best short term yields right now are in Europe and they are guaranteed by the ECB as the ECB no longer has preferred status anymore.

To me the question is now; Which one fill fall harder? Europe or the USA.
Mate, I think you wanted to say lower IR at start.

Otherwive, you have made very good point here. They are not guaranteed yet, but once Nations apply, there really will be party in bond markets here.

For me, question is not who will fall harder, but who will fall first. I am still betting Europe .

Edit: Btw, sorry for your loss. Didnt knew you had any, I still dont watch those other pairs that much, so i cant watch entries.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,474
  • Sep 8, 2012 10:55am Sep 8, 2012 10:55am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Yes, I have understood it is your prediction, I was just hoping you could share part of your analysis. I am now recalculating my targets because of this move and would like to know what others think of it. And I like math, to be honest .

T
Here's a mind twister for you Tom...

Place a FibTime on our July low and place the anchor on the bottom of the first retrace (Aug-2). The day after or before the prime number marker has has cause a 200+ pips move to the upside with a narrow consolidation period in between. Now since 7 (a prime) is not on the default FibTime tool, add it. What's the date of that? Wanna bet we'll see another explosive move then?
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #53,475
  • Sep 8, 2012 11:02am Sep 8, 2012 11:02am
Quoting Cgb
.Now since 7 (a prime) is not on the default FibTime tool, add it. What's the date of that? Wanna bet we'll see another explosive move then?
24.9. What is happening?

Mate this is such a heavy jumbo I havent seen such for a long time . Fibo timeframe? Mate you need to give me some time, I think I will have time to explore this tool like in five years.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,476
  • Sep 8, 2012 11:03am Sep 8, 2012 11:03am
Quoting rekon67
CGB agreed!

Now as far as candle stick pattern is concerned, we have to wait for Monday candle close to agree on Marubozu.

I am pretty much sure I do not have to wait for 1.30 level for break even my positions, Monday UK session first half will be enough for me to set those at BE.
A Marubozu candle is a single candle pattern. What we need to see over the next few days is confirmation of trend (bull continuation or reversal).

http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs14.asp
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #53,477
  • Sep 8, 2012 11:03am Sep 8, 2012 11:03am
Quoting Cgb
Thanks for asking Rekon, just pissed because I didn't close some shorts from a far lower level and feeling the pain from them right now.

There's also a growing concerns I have about the US dollar. I am more and more of the belief that it will continue to weaken and collaps under it's own weight. Forget the issues in Europe being solved or not, forget the notion if Spain/Italy will come crying for a bailout on their knees, or if Greece is not meeting the Troika's requirements for their bailout.

Indications right now are that the US ecomony is...
Okey, I understand now.

Without discussing further E/U will go up more or down on Monday can you do one thing?

Can you hedge the position with some other pair say UsdJPY or EURCHF or EURJPY.

Do not touch E/U or add further positions untill a confirmation candle on Weekly.

My 1+1 = 2 cents

Sharing is caring
  • #53,478
  • Sep 8, 2012 11:11am Sep 8, 2012 11:11am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Mate, I think you wanted to say lower IR at start.

Otherwive, you have made very good point here. They are not guaranteed yet, but once Nations apply, there really will be party in bond markets here.

For me, question is not who will fall harder, but who will fall first. I am still betting Europe .

Edit: Btw, sorry for your loss. Didnt knew you had any, I still dont watch those other pairs that much, so i cant watch entries.

T
They are unrealized losses, meaning my shorts are still open. I still have, like the rest of the market it would seem, some hopium left in me that I will break even (maybe) in the next 6 to 8 weeks.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #53,479
  • Sep 8, 2012 11:13am Sep 8, 2012 11:13am
Quoting Cgb
A Marubozu candle is a single candle pattern. What we need to see over the next few days is confirmation of trend (bull continuation or reversal).

http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs14.asp
anyways we have to wait for Monday

And after such a big candle without any shadow we suppose to get a range of consolidations
  • #53,480
  • Sep 8, 2012 11:13am Sep 8, 2012 11:13am
Quoting rekon67
Okey, I understand now.

Without discussing further E/U will go up more or down on Monday can you do one thing?

Can you hedge the position with some other pair say UsdJPY or EURCHF or EURJPY.

Do not touch E/U or add further positions untill a confirmation candle on Weekly.

My 1+1 = 2 cents

Sharing is caring
Already done my friend
I observe your reality but live my own.
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