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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #53,421
  • Sep 8, 2012 5:01am Sep 8, 2012 5:01am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hi guys,

I dont feel like analyzing that weekly candle. Makes me sick. From technical perspective, all levels have been broken and we may continue up, with first stop beein 1,3009, second @ 1,33. I will run some calculations, but this correction (which in Grade 2 is already trend) didnt have any serious retracement down and we should count it in our calculations. This is volatility par excelance. I am looking forward for your views, as my view was kinda shattered yesterday.

T
Tom, with ref to PT's chart above visiting 1.30 level will not be a cake walk and before placing a order you need to choose a higher resistence level for a counter and not a randomly pick number.

Also place moving average 40 on your weekly and see where the price is.

  • #53,422
  • Sep 8, 2012 5:08am Sep 8, 2012 5:08am
Quoting rekon67
Tom, with ref to PT's chart above visiting 1.30 level will not be a cake walk and before placing a order you need to choose a higher resistence level for a counter and not a randomly pick number.

Also place moving average 40 on your weekly and see where the price is.

Thats not analysis mate, not what I was looking for . MA 40 on MY chart? YouŽd better be kidding me. I consider moving averages one of the most useless indicators ever developed. Dont take me wrong, they are very usefull to smooth out the market to get better view, or are very usefull for further statistical work, but trading on MA support/ressistance is nonscence imo. But sure, it may work, like fibo mumbo jumbo does, but in such a market enviroment like now, I wouldnt be counting on some MA to work as ressistance.

Btw, wtf with random picking numbers? Were you really talking to me mate?

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,423
  • Sep 8, 2012 5:18am Sep 8, 2012 5:18am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Thats not analysis mate, not what I was looking for . MA 40 on MY chart? YouŽd better be kidding me. I consider moving averages one of the most useless indicators ever developed. Dont take me wrong, they are very usefull to smooth out the market to get better view, or are very usefull for further statistical work, but trading on MA support/ressistance is nonscence imo. But sure, it may work, like fibo mumbo jumbo does, but in such a market enviroment like now, I wouldnt be counting on some MA to work as ressistance.

Btw, wtf with random picking...
I have not referred MAs as support resistance, but if you are not agreeing the technical use of MA then there is no point further discussing.

Since you are laughing on use of 40 MA on weekly, I would advice you to read more on technicals and see some charts from decent writers.

Random picking numbers are those with pending Sale orders which we sometime set and forget. Support / Resistences, Supply / Demand levels changes with Time as the Market is quite dynamic.
  • #53,424
  • Sep 8, 2012 5:26am Sep 8, 2012 5:26am
No mate, you misunderstood, I know everything about MAs. In fact my previous core of system was based on planting 200 MAs on my chart and measure how many levels of MAs are broken during move.

I didnt forget I have placed my order. How can you say so? Perhaps you keep on talking to someone else? I was just determined to follow my tradeplan. If I followed my guts, I wouldnt be entering on Friday pre NFP. But if I followed my guts, I could very well be broke within a month as well. Tough decision.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,425
  • Sep 8, 2012 6:03am Sep 8, 2012 6:03am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Omg divergences again.
.../...
Divergences start to appear in lower timeframes and are slowly moving to higher timeframes, often vanishing on the way there. If you want to use any kind of divergences for trading, you need to precisely know what type of waves (what timeframe/length of wave) are you looking for and when to expect them.

T
Hey Tom,
The divergences are on daily and weekly time frames. I don't take much notice of divergences on smaller time frames as I only trade mid to long term. In my opinion they are quite valid. If you look at all the times we had divergences on daily/weekly/monthly charts, you will see a reversal/correction to smooth it out.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,426
  • Edited 6:31am Sep 8, 2012 6:11am | Edited 6:31am
I was just talking about the general topic mate, I know where are you looking. I could skip the "omg" start though .

But I just mentioned timeframe, not because of timeframe itself, but as length of counted time. I know you know what I mean. And I already see some divergences appear. Gimme few minutes, I will post you a chart with momentum analysis, this one is "almost" ready. As everything.

Edit: few like 30, it is buggy. I mean, my program.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,427
  • Sep 8, 2012 6:14am Sep 8, 2012 6:14am
pip trader broo. u may check these weekly & daily charts with RSI 13... i am ur big fan and daily i ready ur posts and check ur website 4 make up my mind..euro weekly closeing above 2800 is change my mind..same thing happen in gold silver and dollar charts......maybe i wrong...u check these charts again ..maybe bearish cycel finesh At 2040...i think macd 2 line is powerfull tool to find divergance.....pip ur comments plzzz
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euroo weekly.png Size: 160 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euro daily.png Size: 165 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd weekly.png Size: 160 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd daily.png Size: 154 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: silver weekly.png Size: 152 KB
  • #53,428
  • Sep 8, 2012 6:24am Sep 8, 2012 6:24am
Quoting PipTrapper
Hey Tom,
The divergences are on daily and weekly time frames. I don't take much notice of divergences on smaller time frames as I only trade mid to long term. In my opinion they are quite valid. If you look at all the times we had divergences on daily/weekly/monthly charts, you will see a reversal/correction to smooth it out.

Histrogram is pretty much nothing but 1/3 of the time frame you are looking at. Looking at a 60 it is a 20M MACD. It is just a slight less exact because of less of 1/3rd less bars for detail. Which is why I watch 1/3 time frames. That and trends have 3 movements. I also agree with what you said.
  • #53,429
  • Sep 8, 2012 6:27am Sep 8, 2012 6:27am
Quoting PipTrapper
Hey Tom,
The divergences are on daily and weekly time frames. I don't take much notice of divergences on smaller time frames as I only trade mid to long term. In my opinion they are quite valid. If you look at all the times we had divergences on daily/weekly/monthly charts, you will see a reversal/correction to smooth it out.
Hey PT, do you think this will be a reversal or correction coming for next week? I sense a definite reversal till somewhere around 1.26256 but it certainly has the potential to touch 1.2 once more should it reverse.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #53,430
  • Sep 8, 2012 6:47am Sep 8, 2012 6:47am
Quoting KlSaso
EURUSD prediction on monday 10th sep.
To keep the EURUSD other risk sensitive assets rising; the Fed needs to meet and potentially surpass high expectations for stimulus.
  • #53,431
  • Sep 8, 2012 6:47am Sep 8, 2012 6:47am
Shafaat, TRMZXT and Aeturnum,

These are not normal times as the market is no longer free since the central banks are verbally intervening. So the Greed/Fear trade is what dominates the markets for now.

No matter what the central banks do, the facts are that the US has much more growth than the Eurozone (+1.7 GDP vs -0.5 GDP) so after the CB intervention dust has settled, the E/U pair will resume a bearish trend.

The only question now for USD is how much more QE3 hopium will be priced in before the market is disappointed when QE3 does not happen. For the Euro, the good news is now all out, so once the Euro fear trade has fully unwound (which will be very soon... maybe early next week), then the rally should run out of steam.

In summary, the rally in E/U is based on the temporary effects of CB interventions and not on the underlying fundamentals.

The effect of CB intervention is always temporary.
The effect of economic reality is always persistent.
Knowing these two facts, which way would you trade in the mid to long term?

Remember that so far, the CB intervention is only verbal and no action has been taken and most likely will not be. Judge for yourself
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,432
  • Sep 8, 2012 6:58am Sep 8, 2012 6:58am
Quoting aeternum
Hey PT, do you think this will be a reversal or correction coming for next week? I sense a definite reversal till somewhere around 1.26256 but it certainly has the potential to touch 1.2 once more should it reverse.
To address your question specifically... Both from a fundamental and technical perspective in the mid term, the E/U pair needs to push lower from current levels. If it does not do that soon, then by as early as next month we may be seeing a lot more negative economic data coming out of the core and peripheral EZ nations.

The fear of a Euro breakup has now been sidelined. However the economic realities are still biting at the heels of the Euro exchange rate.

Now the only question is how far down it will go. I still have my targets set on below 1.20... probably around 1.15/1.16 area. By the time we get there (maybe the end of the year provided all goes well with the US elections), then I think we will be ready for a full bottoming process and a true reversal to as high as 1.40 and possibly beyond.

I may be proven wrong in the end, but I have to go by what I am seeing now. The trick in this business is to trade based on probabilities and not the possibilities
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,433
  • Sep 8, 2012 7:01am Sep 8, 2012 7:01am
Result: Confused trading

Personal Action: Failure to stay with my own ideas and the basis for why I put a trade on.

Example of cause: Data overwhelm leads to loss of focus. Mind drifts and trading becomes a spur of the moment thing.

Mind problem: Breakdown in trading discipline

Solution: Develop a rock steady mindset based upon solid understanding of why a trade is put on in the first place

Questions to ask: Did I really know why this trade is on my platform before it appeared there?
Did I really have a trade plan that works with the way that I think?
Am I really taking personal responsibility for my actions?
  • #53,434
  • Sep 8, 2012 7:02am Sep 8, 2012 7:02am
pip trader .... in fundamental side ur 100% right..but sir what technicals says...?????what these divergance says??.in technicals side plz explane a littel bet....
  • #53,435
  • Edited 8:12am Sep 8, 2012 7:04am | Edited 8:12am
So, here goes. I am still watching Grade 2 cycles now, where this move already appeares to be trend (defined by break of last wave high, beeing 17/06/2012). Momentum analysis confirms that. Those are 180,90,30 day momentums and divergence already appeared on 180.

Btw, those numbers aint precise ofc, since *.csv exported from MT4 has some missing numbers (like Saturdays), but as I said, I am working on it. So month should be like 26 days etc.

Those numbers on the y axis of momentum chart are from momentum 6.6.2010 till now, so just watch the lines.

Edit: ok, I wanted to answer fast, and you know how is that with those fast answers. They tend to be wrong. . So, divergence can be seen from 90 days, since it is now vissible only at 180 days chart. Both shorter momentums are overshooting.

T
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: momentum.JPG Size: 58 KB
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,436
  • Sep 8, 2012 7:07am Sep 8, 2012 7:07am
sir i agree with ur views...dollar strong support at 79 level..and i hop dollar show diverganec at 79 level...and euroo go down
  • #53,437
  • Sep 8, 2012 7:09am Sep 8, 2012 7:09am
Quoting shafaat
pip trader .... in fundamental side ur 100% right..but sir what technicals says...?????what these divergance says??.in technicals side plz explane a littel bet....
What I am saying is that different technicals point in different directions. You cannot just rely on two or three indicators. If you are trading strictly on technicals, you have to restrict yourself to day trading in H1 and lower time frames and use those technical levels (support/resistance / MAs/ Fibos/ Oscillators) as a means to determine your most optimal entry point in a system of probabilities with the best possible risk/reward ratio.

As for your RSI divergences, yes I agree it looks bullish. My point is that you should not rely on just that, and if you wanted to, it is not a good idea to go long from these levels, but rather wait for a good pullback to very solid support.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,438
  • Sep 8, 2012 7:09am Sep 8, 2012 7:09am
Quoting PipTrapper
To address your question specifically... Both from a fundamental and technical perspective in the mid term, the E/U pair needs to push lower from current levels. If it does not do that soon, then by as early as next month we may be seeing a lot more negative economic data coming out of the core and peripheral EZ nations.

The fear of a Euro breakup has now been sidelined. However the economic realities are still biting at the heels of the Euro exchange rate.

Now the only question is how far down it will go. I still have my targets set on below...
Based on my charts, I see 161.8 fib level at 1.15697. And seeing this huge rally could actually mean that we MIGHT see that level (which would be the lowest of the lowest EURUSD has gone in a long long time). My channel also shows that after achieving such a low (we may actually take 5-6 weeks for this bearish move), it will only go up to at most 1.2. But assuming it breaks out once more, I guess it could burst past 1.3 and really break the trend. By then it would possibly be 1.38954 (61.8) or 1.44443 (78.6).

I've only started trading for a month or two, and that was during the summer period. And I understand after reading lots of comments on this forum that the summer period is a dull period and the market normally moves around 100 - 250 pips a day. I hope I can earn my losses back! Assuming the gold bubble bursts, China's PMI and economy drags Australia down back to parity and USDCAD/CHF goes back up (USDX too), I think we have a fresh yearly low.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #53,439
  • Sep 8, 2012 7:12am Sep 8, 2012 7:12am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Thats not analysis mate, not what I was looking for . MA 40 on MY chart? YouŽd better be kidding me. I consider moving averages one of the most useless indicators ever developed. Dont take me wrong, they are very usefull to smooth out the market to get better view, or are very usefull for further statistical work, but trading on MA support/ressistance is nonscence imo. But sure, it may work, like fibo mumbo jumbo does, but in such a market enviroment like now, I wouldnt be counting on some MA to work as ressistance.

Btw, wtf with random picking...
That depends on how you use it tom. Same goes with macd.
  • #53,440
  • Sep 8, 2012 7:23am Sep 8, 2012 7:23am
Well not exactly confused, but more of surprised and unable to judge fast. I know precisely why I put my entry where I put it. Why would I put it there otherwise? Right now, well I just got rode over by volkswagon full of hippies. I saw them coming, I almost didnt sleep whole week and was analyzing every word BB said. I was reading all the news and saw all the hype, first everyone saying how Bubbles will fire, than wild wild west shootout between Draghi and Germans, than direct charge by QE supporters all around, and then horrible NFP justifying the launch. I had an early exit scenario for such an occasion, where my guts tell me to get of early. It was for Draghi owns + ADP non farm fail. Guess what? Draghi imo failed (read, delivered exactly what everyone knew) and ADP was great, so my "guts scared" get out plan wasnt unlocked. Yea, I didnt expect such an NFP and if I was intraday trader, I could dodge the van, but, well, I just aint that fast.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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