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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #53,381
  • Sep 7, 2012 2:00pm Sep 7, 2012 2:00pm
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Ok everybody. Have a great weekend PT, cgb, wulfgar, mka_78, gnomoneey, gofer, 100pipaday, halkins, rekon, neuron, foto, tom, ken, islander and all the regulars that make this the best thread on FF.

Did I leave anyone out?

Please spend time with your family this weekend. Love somebody. You too Ken.

My thoughts on E/U...........Nite guys.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=majFrn3j1Co
Have a nice Weekend Swissy, you do take care and enjoy your time
I will be away for 2-3 months starting from the next week, but I will still be trading , can't get my fingers away from the keyboard LOL.
  • #53,382
  • Sep 7, 2012 2:05pm Sep 7, 2012 2:05pm
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Ok everybody. Have a great weekend PT, cgb, wulfgar, mka_78, gnomoneey, gofer, 100pipaday, halkins, rekon, neuron, foto, tom, ken, islander and all the regulars that make this the best thread on FF.

Did I leave anyone out?

Please spend time with your family this weekend. Love somebody. You too Ken.

My thoughts on E/U...........Nite guys.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=majFrn3j1Co
Have a nice weekend Swiss. I'm trying to write down my thoughts on E/U right now and trying to find a post a made a while ago (around the 1.2395 levels) but it would appear it's been deleted for some reason. Anyways, here's my thoughts.
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I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #53,383
  • Sep 7, 2012 2:16pm Sep 7, 2012 2:16pm
Quoting Cgb
Have a nice weekend Swiss. I'm trying to write down my thoughts on E/U right now and trying to find a post a made a while ago (around the 1.2395 levels) but it would appear it's been deleted for some reason. Anyways, here's my thoughts.
Awesome. We share the same thoughts.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #53,384
  • Sep 7, 2012 2:16pm Sep 7, 2012 2:16pm
http://www.drudgereport.com/

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-eco...123111662.html
  • #53,385
  • Sep 7, 2012 2:19pm Sep 7, 2012 2:19pm
Quoting Cgb
Have a nice weekend Swiss. I'm trying to write down my thoughts on E/U right now and trying to find a post a made a while ago (around the 1.2395 levels) but it would appear it's been deleted for some reason. Anyways, here's my thoughts.
Hahahahhaahah...... , a very bad week for me ending into smiles...Thanks buddy
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #53,386
  • Sep 7, 2012 2:23pm Sep 7, 2012 2:23pm
Quoting Harpe Eagle
Hahahahhaahah...... , a very bad week for me ending into smiles...Thanks buddy
Glad I could bring a smile to your face. I need to stand on my head in order to get a smile out of me right now.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #53,387
  • Sep 7, 2012 2:32pm Sep 7, 2012 2:32pm
Quoting Cgb
Glad I could bring a smile to your face. I need to stand on my head in order to get a smile out of me right now.
http://www.cartoonstock.com/newscart...es/tswn58l.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,388
  • Sep 7, 2012 2:51pm Sep 7, 2012 2:51pm
Relax just a correction in imo. Worst scenario 1.2933
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Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #53,389
  • Sep 7, 2012 2:53pm Sep 7, 2012 2:53pm
Quoting PipTrapper
http://www.cartoonstock.com/newscart...es/tswn58l.jpg
Don't think that worked, I'm getting an "X" as the image. Is that a strike against me? Two more and I'm out? LOL!

Equities are not selling off (and no sign of weakness yet since yesterday's viagra effect) and E/U going to close at HOD.

1.2810 is still the last line of defence, but at this point it looks like it's going to be the bulls who are going to laugh at all the bears that got margin called in the last two weeks.

If I provide the tent Tom, can I join you under that bridge of yours?
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #53,390
  • Sep 7, 2012 2:55pm Sep 7, 2012 2:55pm
Quoting Cgb
Don't think that worked, I'm getting an "X" as the image. Is that a strike against me? Two more and I'm out? LOL!

Equities are not selling off (and no sign of weakness yet since yesterday's viagra effect) and E/U going to close at HOD.

1.2810 is still the last line of defence, but at this point it looks like it's going to be the bulls who are going to laugh at all the bears that got margin called in the last two weeks.

If I provide the tent Tom, can I join you under that bridge of yours?
Faith!
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #53,391
  • Sep 7, 2012 3:01pm Sep 7, 2012 3:01pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
Faith!
look rsi weekly... what happened since 2011 when rsi touched todays levels..
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #53,392
  • Sep 7, 2012 3:02pm Sep 7, 2012 3:02pm
Quoting Luis Carlos
Faith!
Ah yes, the hopium again.

Edit: At the NEW HOD of 1.28126 (so much for that 1.2810)
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #53,393
  • Sep 7, 2012 3:02pm Sep 7, 2012 3:02pm
Quoting Cgb
Don't think that worked, I'm getting an "X" as the image. Is that a strike against me? Two more and I'm out? LOL!

Equities are not selling off (and no sign of weakness yet since yesterday's viagra effect) and E/U going to close at HOD.

1.2810 is still the last line of defence, but at this point it looks like it's going to be the bulls who are going to laugh at all the bears that got margin called in the last two weeks.

If I provide the tent Tom, can I join you under that bridge of yours?
As long as you can hold off until September 13th I think you should be OK. Have a look at this article I just posted on my thread. Hopefully it will raise the morale...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post5995405
  • #53,394
  • Sep 7, 2012 3:25pm Sep 7, 2012 3:25pm
Guys! Is it really hard to reverse from bear <-> bull when trend changes or is it just a habit and addict in blood? Or maybe confusion?
  • #53,395
  • Sep 7, 2012 3:55pm Sep 7, 2012 3:55pm
Was away from the screen for awhile so have a great weekend everyone, sorry didn't respond to the Swiss trader faster.

Mka_78
It relates to how you trade and on what time frame.
If you trade a macro view and dailies or longer the nice thing is that you do not have to change your mind all the time. You trade with the primary direction of your analysis and technical trend direction.
What you will be concentrating on is developing hedges that cushion the days the market goes against your positons. For instance if you trade a deflationary outlook then you would buy EURO/CAD at key areas based upon your techs for timing. That would be a hedge against the days the USD underperforms against the Euro. You are still trading a deflationary scenario as the USD presumably is the worlds primary reserve currency.

So to put on a trade you would have at minimum two or more currency pairs.

If you trade shorter term under the 4 hour bar you would probably be solely technicaly based in your analysis. Unless you were a very knowledgeable news trader.

So reversals are more common and you have to get your timing better and better the shorter the time frame you work. For many people the constant switching of direction can get confusing. So you might just find one or two patterns or pattern variations that you just look for over and over, and only take those particular ones that end up working for the way that your mind operates.

If you wish to trade only directionaly with some scenario, you would only take trades in alignment with your primary analysis and not be in the market when it goes the other way.

Just some simple ideas to hopefully point you in the correct direction.
  • #53,396
  • Sep 7, 2012 3:57pm Sep 7, 2012 3:57pm
I think to make money (big money) we all have to think like those crooks. Cgb is on to something when he said someone is celebrating down at Richmond. Tom with his conspiracy theories (innocent but can find some common sense in it) more concentrated on the drama of the European hemisphere. Maybe everyone knows this but refrain themselves to say something in public forums to avoid creating too much attentions.

If I have the biggest debt in this world, what would I do? I have all the tools and instruments? How do I get out of this and still maintaining power? This is for you Tom
  • #53,397
  • Sep 7, 2012 4:24pm Sep 7, 2012 4:24pm
The hardest part of trading and the most overlooked is the mind.
In the end all we have is Price and some way of figuring out if it is going up, down or sideways and who has the upper hand.
Where does this thing begin and where does it end.

Keeping the old noodle from distorting what is going on in front of ones own eyes sounds ridiculously simple minded, and yet that is where most traders fail.
  • #53,398
  • Sep 7, 2012 4:31pm Sep 7, 2012 4:31pm
Quoting foto
Was away from the screen for awhile so have a great weekend everyone, sorry didn't respond to the Swiss trader faster.

Mka_78
It relates to how you trade and on what time frame.
If you trade a macro view and dailies or longer the nice thing is that you do not have to change your mind all the time. You trade with the primary direction of your analysis and technical trend direction.
What you will be concentrating on is developing hedges that cushion the days the market goes against your positons. For instance if you trade a deflationary outlook then you would buy EURO/CAD at key areas based upon your techs for timing. That would be a hedge against the days the USD underperforms against the Euro. You are still trading a deflationary scenario as the USD presumably is the worlds primary reserve currency.

So to put on a trade you would have at minimum two or more currency pairs.

If you trade shorter term under the 4 hour bar you would probably be solely technicaly based in your analysis. Unless you were a very knowledgeable news trader.

So reversals are more common and you have to get your timing better and better the shorter the time frame you work. For many people the constant switching of direction can get confusing. So you might just find one or two patterns or pattern variations that you just look for over and over, and only take those particular ones that end up working for the way that your mind operates.

If you wish to trade only directionaly with some scenario, you would only take trades in alignment with your primary analysis and not be in the market when it goes the other way.

Just some simple ideas to hopefully point you in the correct direction.

Excellent points on trading styles foto... as usual.
You're one of the very few here who understand my trading style.

One thing I want to add is that when I start seeing the majority ready to capitulate on their shorts, I know the top is very near.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,399
  • Sep 7, 2012 4:44pm Sep 7, 2012 4:44pm
Quoting foto
The hardest part of trading and the most overlooked is the mind.
In the end all we have is Price and some way of figuring out if it is going up, down or sideways and who has the upper hand.
Where does this thing begin and where does it end.

Keeping the old noodle from distorting what is going on in front of ones own eyes sounds ridiculously simple minded, and yet that is where most traders fail.
I completely agree with what you're saying here. In life, success is 80% psychological and only 20% mechanics. It is no different with trading, like you said, this is where most traders fail.

Business is all about energy, positive energy and negative energy are both contagious. Energy is caught, not taught. So it makes sense to try and keep a level head and don't let our emotions get the best of us.

Another interesting fact is that people make decisions based 80% off of energy and emotion and only 20% using logic and reasoning.

It can't be stressed enough that we need to keep our minds right if we want to succeed in this business.

Anyways, I hope everybody enjoys the weekend. Let's get ready for another great week which hopefully will be filled with excitement and profits for all of us.
  • #53,400
  • Sep 7, 2012 4:50pm Sep 7, 2012 4:50pm
That's it for me folks, time to peel myself away from this screen for weekend.

We've closed at 1.28159 which is the HOD, above 1.2810 line in the sand, above the 200SMA (1.28098) and above the 61.8% FIB retracement from the May-July drop.

The 62.8% FIB retracement is usually a good spot to short. I must emphasize the word usually. I will accept a 50 pip move north from here, at the most, before getting my tent ready and joining the others bears with tire tracks on their backs.

But in the meantime, it's Ceasar Time!

Cheers!
Attached Image
I observe your reality but live my own.
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