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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #53,121
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:36am Sep 7, 2012 7:36am
Quoting PipTrapper
Great .............. 96 k and EU bounced off .. and may be down after profit taking ... we may close under 1.2685 ........
finding A M S
  • #53,122
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:37am Sep 7, 2012 7:37am
And the winner is??? ME well i got the closest and i bought gold hehe
  • #53,123
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:38am Sep 7, 2012 7:38am
all around bad numbers.....the unemployment rate only dropped because the Labor Participation Rate dropped by around 350K workers....smaller universe, not because of employment increase......
  • #53,124
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:39am Sep 7, 2012 7:39am
I am so so so dead. The way I digested it, is that unemployment rate is low because of seasonal work (in the fields), but NFP means slowing down in the rest of the labour market, therefore justifying QE. So QE another step closer. Am I right?

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,125
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:39am Sep 7, 2012 7:39am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Gold to the moon. Crude to the pit! Future S&P and DOW diving. Nothing is correlated.
Status quo.

Gold hit my 1719 target.

USDX now at 80.500 and falling. If we close below 81 (or near) today, we're opening the door to 80
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #53,126
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:40am Sep 7, 2012 7:40am
Quoting PipTrapper
The numbers are too mixed.

Headline number only 97K with a previous revision down to 142K from 163K

Yet unemployment fell to 8.1%

This could go either way folks, but it's gonna take a bit for the market to digest it.

Either way, I think the Euro will rally a bit more.

ADD: I'm at a loss as to how the Fed will interpret this.

And it takes +250k net in order to keep unemployment steady. They must be using Chinese math.
  • #53,127
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:42am Sep 7, 2012 7:42am
Quoting PipTrapper
NFP Guessing Game

RodMcA +100k
Congratulations Rod. This month's winner

https://cdn2.content.compendiumblog....atulations.jpg

Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,128
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:43am Sep 7, 2012 7:43am
Right now (1.2745) I'm more than happy to sell to anybody who want to buy. It's gona be a fine day.
  • #53,129
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:45am Sep 7, 2012 7:45am
Quoting RodMca
And the winner is??? ME well i got the closest and i bought gold hehe
  • #53,130
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:46am Sep 7, 2012 7:46am
Quoting PipTrapper
NFP Guessing Game

Game is now closed.

RodMcA +100k
ohenry +109K
afos +112k
Savager - +125K
Harpe +135K
pmk80 +140K
rekon + 143K
Ken A +145K
Gnomoneey +146k
Dagoot +149k
PipTrapper +150K
Rag2RichesFX +151K
Kalastaja +155K
Profitsonly +156k
winGou +157K
FX Tsunami +160K
Paulenok +162k
Thijs +163K
Prash7 +165k
Pipnosis +170K
halkins +175k
mka_78 +177k
balanced2012 +178
TheSwede +180K
Gofer Pips +181K
Vtmn +191K
foto +193K
cgldsmth +195K
monkey +198k
Swissy +200k
CGB +205K
PipsMaster23...

So.... No one wins....
  • #53,131
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:46am Sep 7, 2012 7:46am
if this non-farms indicates that the US economy is still not anywhere near recovery levels, this still indicates global recession, as without US consumption chinese production is not going to recover...and perhaps the FED shouldnt do QE3 yet as the money still isnt flowing to where it needs to go to help recovery...and so maybe the FED will wait for more recovery signs before giving the QE3 economic boost
  • #53,132
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:46am Sep 7, 2012 7:46am
About QE, over rated as a prime market mover. Headline gossip for sure but it is only one factor in market response.

Nobody other then the CB's still believes it can alter economic reality.
stick with Price.
  • #53,133
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:46am Sep 7, 2012 7:46am
Quoting tinypip
Right now (1.2745) I'm more than happy to sell to anybody who want to buy. It's gona be a fine day.
Well price is definitely stretched to the upside now. Logically and technically, it can only go down from these heights. However, I'm going to wait until the dust settles.

Regardless, this is definitely not a place to buy from. Best to wait for a pullback.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,134
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:47am Sep 7, 2012 7:47am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I am so so so dead. The way I digested it, is that unemployment rate is low because of seasonal work (in the fields), but NFP means slowing down in the rest of the labour market, therefore justifying QE. So QE another step closer. Am I right?

T
the QE3 bandwagon would tend to believe, i think, that these numbers make QE more likely....

however, i dont think these nubmers suprise anyone in the Obamaracracy or the Fed. The fact is, the ecomomy is sputtering along on low idle because the US government is actively hostile to business interests.

Furthermore, the Fed has shot all its bullets and nothing they have tried thus far, which is everything, has worked. Congress is breathing down their neck and Mr. Stimulus is probably going to get voted out of office in just a matter of weeks.

I think more QE would be more of a suprise, than its actuality. However, the Fed can keep saying its an option and wet the markets appitite for it until the election resolves itself.
  • #53,135
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:49am Sep 7, 2012 7:49am
And dead. Now that was fast. I think I ll have another cigarette and try to think of under which bridge shall I live.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,136
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:50am Sep 7, 2012 7:50am
good morning guys.... Momentum looks firm to the upside as we are clearing out liquidity above the 1.2740 area.... a few critical breakout on such pairs as the UCAD and other commodities.

If we close the day strongly above this area it leaves the 1.3072 easily within reach from a monthly perspective.

I am sitting on my hands until the weekly close and will reassess to position for next week. Certainly NOT trying to call a top here with this mixed bag of news
  • #53,137
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:50am Sep 7, 2012 7:50am
Sell order in. 1.2775
  • #53,138
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:50am Sep 7, 2012 7:50am
Goldman Sachs says FED will return to asset purchases next week at FOMC meeting.
  • #53,139
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:51am Sep 7, 2012 7:51am
OMG! HH on daily.. Who could have thought...
1.2825-30 on sight..
69
  • #53,140
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:53am Sep 7, 2012 7:53am
staying out, F%%K YOU NFP
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