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AUD/USD

  • #52,181
  • Sep 6, 2012 10:50pm Sep 6, 2012 10:50pm
Quoting smilemiz
rumors says... i dont know...

thanks... but candlestick has a weakness...

dont forget
it's pattern were governed by any TF period...

but among them.. I really like to use some of their patterns

for e.g

I like Spinning top, doji, harami or inverted bearish engulfing, hanging man rather than
Bullish engulfing pattern, morning/evening star, hammer or high wave candles bla bla
in specific Time frames
  • #52,182
  • Sep 6, 2012 10:54pm Sep 6, 2012 10:54pm
Quoting Emanuel
I don't think we'll see this pair trading at parity anytime soon, i'm holding on to this pair until we hit the ceiling above 1.03...

good luck y'all.
yup... News are kind of subjectivity and odds...yes for sure
but not for all the fundamental subjects..

I recommend to read posting by jplazard
  • #52,183
  • Sep 6, 2012 11:13pm Sep 6, 2012 11:13pm
Quoting dab
I'd only call it a retrace or pullback at this stage, not a reversal.

I also thinks it's been more about data out of the US & possibly to do with ECB announcements rather than this big a move on the employment data. I'm holding onto my shorts & I'd suggest you do the same but I'm longer term trader who also has some longs & what you do should depend on your plan and timeframe.
Especially when you are longer term trader I would keep the shorts.
The top AU might reach should be around 1.0355 and then back down.
This bounce was:
1: expected bounce from support 1.070
2: effect from ECB and Dragshit yesterday,
3: and at this moment the Asian reaction on ECB stuff.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #52,184
  • Sep 6, 2012 11:15pm Sep 6, 2012 11:15pm
[quote=Kirk;5992128]I am a relative newb, been doing this for about a year and a half in all, been paying attention to it for probably 3. And the last month and a half has been by far my most succesful, but I have to admit Im still not quite understanding this. There are pieces to the puzzle I am missing and I know this.... because

- The AUD/USD was well entrenched in a downward trend
- Negative reports out of china
- the mining slowing down


And... in the midst of all this bad sentiment and reports.... it.. makes a complete reversal (or at the very least, a very substantial retracement) based on a very superficial employment report?

Hi Kirk,

Your problem is you are trading off stuff which is already "known". So you are asking the market for continuation. We will most times be the last to know anything fundemental so my rule of thumb is "Read today's headlines = be in tomorrows poorhouse" HOWEVER the market yesterday braodcast it's short term strength right on the bad Aussie employmeny number. Great "reaction to news" indicator - that is fake dump then rally on bad news = good for a short term run up as we saw. As soon as I saw the hrly closing above 1.0200 after that number I closed all medium term shorts.
Remember if you are trading off known information it's a bit like sitting down at a poker table and thinking "who is the patsy here?" If you can't see one then it's probably you! (and don't worry we have all been there)
  • #52,185
  • Sep 6, 2012 11:18pm Sep 6, 2012 11:18pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Especially when you are longer term trader I would keep the shorts.
The top AU might reach should be around 1.0355 and then back down.
This bounce was:
1: expected bounce from support 1.070
2: effect from ECB and Dragshit yesterday,
3: and at this moment the Asian reaction on ECB stuff.
lol
  • #52,186
  • Sep 6, 2012 11:33pm Sep 6, 2012 11:33pm
My AUD chart, finally a bounce, didn't want to see it in the 100s though. let's see if this can spell reversal...


Some pretty big volume came in on that last boost......
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #52,187
  • Sep 6, 2012 11:37pm Sep 6, 2012 11:37pm
Are you thinking of Platinum and South Africa?

What mines? what metal Gold Copper?

Do you have any article on this???

or is it just hearsay?

[quote=Hyperion;5992221]
Quoting Kirk
- the mining slowing down
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #52,188
  • Sep 6, 2012 11:46pm Sep 6, 2012 11:46pm
Quoting XTrade
My AUD chart, finally a bounce, didn't want to see it in the 100s though. let's see if this can spell reversal...


Some pretty big volume came in on that last boost......
INDEED WE MIGHT BE EXPERIENCING A REVERSAL, BUT IT MUST CLOSE ABOVE 0350 FOR THE 1ST EARLY SIGNS OF THAT, RIGHT NOW IS BEST TO SIT BACK AND WATCH THE CHARTS FOR CONFIRMATION, IM SORRY FOR ALL THE SHORTS, WE MIGHT BURRY YOU GUYS ALIVE, IM WAITING TO GO LONG ON THIS BABY!

-no talk, just piping!
I am what Many Dream to be but only a few can achieve, im a part of the 1%
  • #52,189
  • Sep 7, 2012 12:04am Sep 7, 2012 12:04am
price action dude, that's all there is to it.

you want a chart?

http://www.finanzen.net/aktien/Natio...a_Bank_1-Aktie

why is it relevant? because they have competitive rates, the fundamentals are only temporarily modest. new zealand and australian bonds i would buy, but i'd wait until we get a decent downtrend. it looks a bit convex and headed upwards for a seasonal boost which is traditional at this time.
  • #52,190
  • Sep 7, 2012 12:42am Sep 7, 2012 12:42am
Me too - especially cause of that stiff roll if they carry....



Quoting Soros
INDEED WE MIGHT BE EXPERIENCING A REVERSAL, BUT IT MUST CLOSE ABOVE 0350 FOR THE 1ST EARLY SIGNS OF THAT, RIGHT NOW IS BEST TO SIT BACK AND WATCH THE CHARTS FOR CONFIRMATION, IM SORRY FOR ALL THE SHORTS, WE MIGHT BURRY YOU GUYS ALIVE, IM WAITING TO GO LONG ON THIS BABY!

-no talk, just piping!
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #52,191
  • Sep 7, 2012 1:22am Sep 7, 2012 1:22am
Quoting smilemiz
but among them.. I really like to use some of their patterns

for e.g

I like Spinning top, doji, harami or inverted bearish engulfing, hanging man rather than
Bullish engulfing pattern, morning/evening star, hammer or high wave candles bla bla
in specific Time frames
I haven't learned high wave candle patterns yet. I like all the ones you mentioned. I like 3 rising method 3 falling method, shooting star and all the ones you mentioned.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #52,192
  • Sep 7, 2012 1:27am Sep 7, 2012 1:27am
Quoting pawpaw1000
Don't think she'll make it much above 300... just got in short at 292 with stop at 335...
that would have been a good long ur sl get hit?
  • #52,193
  • Sep 7, 2012 1:34am Sep 7, 2012 1:34am
Target two hit.

On the 4h, I see that price is in a very small zone that can decide whether target three gets hit or not. Lines up with the next target on the 4H, as well.

4H AU
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • #52,194
  • Sep 7, 2012 1:46am Sep 7, 2012 1:46am
Quoting dab
I'd only call it a retrace or pullback at this stage, not a reversal.

I also thinks it's been more about data out of the US & possibly to do with ECB announcements rather than this big a move on the employment data. I'm holding onto my shorts & I'd suggest you do the same but I'm longer term trader who also has some longs & what you do should depend on your plan and timeframe.
Hey thanks. Ya I plan to hold onto them till the bitter end lol... and seems I got too caught up in the aussie side of things and not paying attention perhaps with whats going on with the dollar.

Thanks again. Good luck.
  • #52,195
  • Sep 7, 2012 1:48am Sep 7, 2012 1:48am
Quoting Hyperion
Hi Kirk,

Your problem is you are trading off stuff which is already "known". So you are asking the market for continuation. We will most times be the last to know anything fundemental so my rule of thumb is "Read today's headlines = be in tomorrows poorhouse" HOWEVER the market yesterday braodcast it's short term strength right on the bad Aussie employmeny number. Great "reaction to news" indicator - that is fake dump then rally on bad news = good for a short term run up as we saw. As soon as I saw the hrly closing above 1.0200 after that...
You make perfect sense, thank you.
  • #52,196
  • Sep 7, 2012 2:00am Sep 7, 2012 2:00am
Quoting KillerWhale
Better wait till next week, I'm already out of my shorts from 9 hours ago.
With only 15 pips bagged
I got out BE and -10 on mine...
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #52,197
  • Sep 7, 2012 2:09am Sep 7, 2012 2:09am
Quoting sidhujag
that would have been a good long ur sl get hit?
BE for 2nd entry and - 10 for my 1st one...
@pawpaw1000 on Twitter
  • #52,198
  • Sep 7, 2012 2:30am Sep 7, 2012 2:30am
Michelle,

Those are amazing charts, I am very happy you found this thread as your perspective shows much more detailed moves than your everyday 30-40pip spikes that people gawk at. As for your charts on EUR/USD this is very accurate and what we are seeing here is a shift in EUR/USD bias and we are approximately around the end of June last year on a move upwards.. Now when the triangle you outlined is complete we will see one of 3 occurrences provided some erroneous shock does not happen in the mean time
A. Triangle breaks to the upside and we go for 1.30-1.32 with minor pullbacks
B. We complete the Inverted H&S and experience a move similar to end of last year
C. Volunteer exit by smaller periphery Countries inside the EU and we complete the 1.18 move than lower.
This week even Friday we most likely will touch 1.27 before coming back down a bit. S&p and EUR/USD are going to burst on follow through tomorrow (provided nonfarm is better) but will come back down slightly on squaring of books into the weekend.
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  • #52,199
  • Sep 7, 2012 2:42am Sep 7, 2012 2:42am
Completely out of the AUD short put on AUG 17. There is really no ‘major’ short opp here at the moment and I am waiting for next week or eur/usd price action to get short again. This was anticipated I wrote about this many times that I would prefer a ‘B’ wave pull back to the upper levels and that we traded through and CLOSED below the 50% retrace from high last year (7/27) to the low (10/4) same with these years High to Low. Now it IS SUPPOSED TO RETRACE back to higher levels, If people here think that this was going to be like Lehman brothers or 2008 everyday selling I’m sorry to disappoint you its not like that. On the other hand if people start seeing 1.0375-1.04 and think this is a reemergence on a Bull trend like I have seen in the other forum than unless we break 1.06 than this market is sideways to down on a macro basis.

As mentioned before I have written a paper covering various macro points on AUD that I will post before Sunday’s open but it shows a shift in trend that will take AUD/USD to the Mid 90’s level. As for the rest of this week I am about done as I only short markets (talking w/ my therapist on why this is lol) but the roadmap below and the paper I have written will guide myself and maybe give a perspective to those who have wanted to short this pair but are still not fully convinced.
Refer here to the map of where it is best to sell I am at the upper channels waiting……..
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5981401#post5981401
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5981456#post5981456
  • #52,200
  • Sep 7, 2012 2:53am Sep 7, 2012 2:53am
Coming close to selling point
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