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AUD/USD

  • #52,161
  • Sep 6, 2012 8:44pm Sep 6, 2012 8:44pm
Quoting acacia357
always remember that
its not manipulated but u will always lose if u go in during no liquidity. Goal is for u to lose and bank to win.
  • #52,162
  • Edited 9:00pm Sep 6, 2012 8:50pm | Edited 9:00pm
Well, other than Glenn Stevens and company being in denial about the current macro state of affairs as well as the Australian economy, this week has been a very strong one fundamentally for a bearish outlook.

Draghi will sterilize his sovereign purchases, junk unemployment figures (rate was fluffed), miss on the GDP, nothing decisive from the Fed or China.

There's not much from a sentiment perspective to hold us up here other than the possible tech retrace
and assumedly-short-term giddiness about Draghi's Euro panacea.

Will be looking for good spots to add if we do get that retrace.

If the fickle gods of exchange be good, down we shall go.
  • #52,163
  • Sep 6, 2012 8:55pm Sep 6, 2012 8:55pm
Quoting balanced2012
shorting the hell out of it heavily shorts on aud/usd
Better wait till next week, I'm already out of my shorts from 9 hours ago.
With only 15 pips bagged
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #52,164
  • Sep 6, 2012 8:59pm Sep 6, 2012 8:59pm
Quoting sidhujag
gluck but on nfp might as well donate
to charity
True, this could be deadly for smaller short term stops for tomorrow. Could also function as a nice long scalp, may go for that depending on where we end up later tonight.

CPI numbers out of China may bump us one way or the other over the weekend, and serve as an additional catalyst for a bigger retrace.
  • #52,165
  • Sep 6, 2012 9:00pm Sep 6, 2012 9:00pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Better wait till next week, I'm already out of my shorts from 9 hours ago.
With only 15 pips bagged
agree....coz bankers is confused also...
  • #52,166
  • Sep 6, 2012 9:07pm Sep 6, 2012 9:07pm
Looking for 1.0355 to short if we get there.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #52,167
  • Sep 6, 2012 9:27pm Sep 6, 2012 9:27pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Looking for 1.0355 to short if we get there.
yes almost... you Good
  • #52,168
  • Sep 6, 2012 9:30pm Sep 6, 2012 9:30pm
trade balance is doesn't make change to much

even worse goes to -556


Dear Jplazard I have something for u 2 c..
  • #52,169
  • Sep 6, 2012 9:50pm Sep 6, 2012 9:50pm
Quoting smilemiz
trade balance is doesn't make change to much

even worse goes to -556


Dear Jplazard I have something for u 2 c..
U might see the correlation between these pairs...

So

They are now so Sync.... before finished.. always happen like this

let my charts speak to u
Attached Images
  • #52,170
  • Sep 6, 2012 9:53pm Sep 6, 2012 9:53pm
Quoting smilemiz
U might see the correlation between these pairs...

So

They are now so Sync.... before finished.. always happen like this

let my charts speak to u
4 hours

I wouldn't short.. cause my short selling swing at 1.33 (on Last March) still remaining
Attached Image
  • #52,171
  • Sep 6, 2012 9:53pm Sep 6, 2012 9:53pm
Quoting smilemiz
4 hours

I wouldn't short.. cause my short selling swing at 1.33 (on Last March) still remaining
and AUDUSD
Attached Image
  • #52,172
  • Sep 6, 2012 9:55pm Sep 6, 2012 9:55pm
Quoting smilemiz
and AUDUSD
1 hour

1 segment impulse.. very clear right?

So I am waiting u later.. OK?


ps I can show u my others analysises - Sentiment, fundamental comments or COT etc
but here just okay with EW counts ... I am showing the properly using of the hardest tool in Technical
Attached Image
  • #52,173
  • Sep 6, 2012 9:56pm Sep 6, 2012 9:56pm
I am a relative newb, been doing this for about a year and a half in all, been paying attention to it for probably 3. And the last month and a half has been by far my most succesful, but I have to admit Im still not quite understanding this. There are pieces to the puzzle I am missing and I know this.... because

- The AUD/USD was well entrenched in a downward trend
- Negative reports out of china
- the mining slowing down


And... in the midst of all this bad sentiment and reports.... it.. makes a complete reversal (or at the very least, a very substantial retracement) based on a very superficial employment report?

Doesnt add up to me but I can see I have a lot more to learn.

dangit lol... i shorted around 1.24 thinking it would do a little retracement, quickly absorb that 'oositive' employment report, and then continue its way down a little bit more.

Now im afraid of how high its going to go, let alone a complete reversal, but at the same time I dont want to cut my losses just yet.

dang lol
  • #52,174
  • Sep 6, 2012 10:03pm Sep 6, 2012 10:03pm
Quoting smilemiz
1 hour

1 segment impulse.. very clear right?

So I am waiting u later.. OK?


ps I can show u my others analysises - Sentiment, fundamental comments or COT etc
but here just okay with EW counts ... I am showing the properly using of the hardest tool in Technical
summarize... thats mean EU need to complete the Triangle before gives us the answer for AU's direction
AGREE?
  • #52,175
  • Sep 6, 2012 10:05pm Sep 6, 2012 10:05pm
Quoting smilemiz
summarize... thats mean EU need to complete the Triangle before gives us the answer for AU's direction
AGREE?
i did analyzed EU from here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...43#post5984643
  • #52,176
  • Sep 6, 2012 10:25pm Sep 6, 2012 10:25pm
Quoting smilemiz
1 hour

1 segment impulse.. very clear right?

So I am waiting u later.. OK?


ps I can show u my others analysises - Sentiment, fundamental comments or COT etc
but here just okay with EW counts ... I am showing the properly using of the hardest tool in Technical

Thank you smilemiz, your analysises were very clear, comprehensive, and nice.
Nice to see u around this thread.
  • #52,177
  • Sep 6, 2012 10:40pm Sep 6, 2012 10:40pm
Quoting Kirk
I am a relative newb, been doing this for about a year and a half in all, been paying attention to it for probably 3. And the last month and a half has been by far my most succesful, but I have to admit Im still not quite understanding this. There are pieces to the puzzle I am missing and I know this.... because

- The AUD/USD was well entrenched in a downward trend
- Negative reports out of china
- the mining slowing down


And... in the midst of all this bad sentiment and reports.... it.. makes a complete reversal (or at the very least, a...
I'd only call it a retrace or pullback at this stage, not a reversal.

I also thinks it's been more about data out of the US & possibly to do with ECB announcements rather than this big a move on the employment data. I'm holding onto my shorts & I'd suggest you do the same but I'm longer term trader who also has some longs & what you do should depend on your plan and timeframe.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #52,178
  • Sep 6, 2012 10:41pm Sep 6, 2012 10:41pm
Quoting smilemiz
1 hour

1 segment impulse.. very clear right?

So I am waiting u later.. OK?


ps I can show u my others analysises - Sentiment, fundamental comments or COT etc
but here just okay with EW counts ... I am showing the properly using of the hardest tool in Technical

I don't know EW that much.. So, EW is the hardest to learn in TA? Just asking. And I think it is cool that you know your candles.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #52,179
  • Sep 6, 2012 10:45pm Sep 6, 2012 10:45pm
Quoting Pair-me-up
I don't know EW that much.. So, EW is the hardest to learn in TA? Just asking. And I think it is cool that you know your candles.
rumors says... i dont know...

thanks... but candlestick has a weakness...

dont forget
it's pattern were governed by any TF period...
  • #52,180
  • Sep 6, 2012 10:50pm Sep 6, 2012 10:50pm
Quoting smilemiz
currently,

expectation 3 days in row Bearish
with highly probably -ve data from RBA

GDP
Employment/unemployment
Trade balance
I don't think we'll see this pair trading at parity anytime soon, i'm holding on to this pair until we hit the ceiling above 1.03...

good luck y'all.
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