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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #11,621
  • Sep 4, 2012 4:26am Sep 4, 2012 4:26am
Quoting 4rexx
Even though I was singing the praises of the .......
excellent post, 4rexx. excellente. you know how to bring the gold nuggets.

you post reminds me of the what i read in william o' neil's book "how to make money in stocks"...the way he uses the length and time it takes for price to move from point A to B and from point B to C... during the cup and handle formation...comparing the number of bars or candles of A to B in ratio to the number of candles of B to C...using that to determine momentum(of course, with the addition of volume, since we are talking about stocks.)

His basis is simple....if you are looking for a breakout from level A at price $100.00..first, look at the number of candles it takes to go from A to B( B = $50.00 = being the lowest part of the cup and handle formation)..and then, compare it to the number of candles it takes to go from B to C...(C = $100.00 = being the same price level as A($100.00))....if B to C is much lesser amount of candles than A to B...THEN the momentum from B to C is stronger...the breakout likelihood of success increases.

when i was reading the archives of this thread...this awesome thread....i came across somebody that uses the same concept as you, MR. 4rexx...that person is entropylad.....his post concisely and clearly illustrate that concept of momentum...he gave it a fancy name:momentum ratio or M.R for short..(i actually like that name.). He even added a chart.

anyways, mr. 4REXX...i have taken your chart and made a few annotations to it showing what i think was going on the NZDUSD price action in terms of momentum....i included points D1 and E-2. ENJOY:
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,622
  • Sep 4, 2012 4:38am Sep 4, 2012 4:38am
Quoting Skynet
i hate it when this happens: solid shorts position just setting up in AUD/JPY(@80.70) and AUD/USD(@1.022797)...there is also the AUD/HKD(@7.97233. BUT it is too close for comfort)

unfortunately, we have mega major news from AUD throughout this week...starting from today....all the way to thursday...from GDP to unemployment to trade balance...same thing in CAD

as such, i will have to let this pass.

to shame....i didnt get in because of the heavy duty red-labeled news...however, the trend is still doing her job...watch AUD/USD from 1.022797 and AUD/HKD from 7.797233 kicking arse....AUDJPY didnt even rose to the entry point of 80.70 before turning around

unfortunately, i couldnt trade them because of the major news....oh well...next time, i guess:
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,623
  • Edited 9:41am Sep 4, 2012 6:09am | Edited 9:41am
Quoting Skynet
to shame....i didnt get in because of the heavy duty red-labeled news...however, the trend is still doing her job...watch AUD/USD from 1.022797 and AUD/HKD from 7.797233 kicking arse....AUDJPY didnt even rose to the entry point of 80.70 before turning around

unfortunately, i couldnt trade them because of the major news....oh well...next time, i guess:
they've pretty much reached first TP...anyways, let me get over them:

(it just shows just how powerful trend trading the right way is...i spotted this trade around 2am EST....the time is now 7am EST....trade completed....the AUDHKD...Gave what? +300pips.....spread was 17pips or so.
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,624
  • Sep 4, 2012 6:09am Sep 4, 2012 6:09am
Quoting 4rexx
[size=3][font=Calibri]Even though I was singing the praises of the Stochastics, RSI and MACD indicators which if used in the right way as leading indicators can you a trading edge, there is one and only one indicator that is top of the pile. Price Action itself! Professional, experienced or well-trained non-professionals traders alike first and foremost read price action. I am not saying they don’t use indicators, because of course they do. However,...
Unreal.. Thank.. You
  • #11,625
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:54am Sep 4, 2012 9:54am
Quoting 4rexx
Even though I was singing the praises of the Stochastics, RSI and MACD indicators which if used in the right way as leading indicators can you a trading edge, there is one and only one indicator that is top of the pile. Price Action itself! Professional, experienced or well-trained non-professionals traders alike first and foremost read price action. I am not saying they don’t use indicators, because of course they do. However,...
Boom! Love all of this 4rexx.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #11,626
  • Edited 4:25pm Sep 4, 2012 1:03pm | Edited 4:25pm
Thanks for the suppotive words guys, there are many ways to skin a cat, and ultimately price action is the foundation of every chart and if you master that (which I am still trying to do) your trading will become and stay profitable. Also by reading price action to see when you have a trend and the momentum to match (like in quite a few charts at the moment) that is the time to be a bit more aggressive (with high prob set-ups) in the market, and when the opposite is true, trendless and low volatility/momentum unless you have strategies for those markets it is better to sit on your hands.

Although as sky said awhile ago there is always markets trending somewhere. Thats if your broker cover those pairs as I have seen not all brokers handle some of the more exotics ones. Nice annotations on that chart sky but as it is a bit busy on the chart now that I recommend that entropyLad post as it is nice and clear and it compliments what we have said. I have that O'neil book but dont remember the part you mentioned do you have a page number. On entropylad's chart the way that bar cuts through that resistance level by the "C" again shows strong mometum.

Persistence overcomes resistance!
  • #11,627
  • Sep 4, 2012 10:18pm Sep 4, 2012 10:18pm
Quoting Skynet
4rexx and zusch,
excellent.

DISCLAIMER: ZUCH we are not trying to attack you here. once again. let me repeat: we are not trying to attack you.
and obviously, you did well with them:as shown by your twitter account.

4rexx provided an indicator based analysis of the situation. he went straight to the poignant question: how do we an anticipate the deterioration before it happens? 4rexx used indicators. My approach is fundamental based.

that said, here is my take on the list of pairs and crosses listed above by zusch. with the exception...
This post and one below.. it.. BLDY Brilliant.. Thank You.. will be sticking u and this thred like glue.. Clear as ..............
  • #11,628
  • Sep 5, 2012 2:02am Sep 5, 2012 2:02am
All you guys with trade in some of the AUD pairs at the moment here is a pretty good analysis (2 days old now) from FXTimes if you have not seen it already.

Persistence overcome resistance!
  • #11,629
  • Sep 5, 2012 2:10am Sep 5, 2012 2:10am
Quoting 4rexx
Thanks for the suppotive words guys, there are many ways to skin a cat, and ultimately price action is the foundation of every chart and if you master that (which I am still trying to do) your trading will become and stay profitable. Also by reading price action to see when you have a trend and the momentum to match (like in quite a few charts at the moment) that is the time to be a bit more aggressive (with high prob set-ups) in the market, and when the opposite is true, trendless and low volatility/momentum unless you have strategies for those...
Hi 4rexx,
i'm new here! What kind of price action patterns do you mostly use?
  • #11,630
  • Edited Sep 6, 2012 7:45am Sep 5, 2012 5:01pm | Edited Sep 6, 2012 7:45am
Quoting anlod
Hi 4rexx,
i'm new here! What kind of price action patterns do you mostly use?
anlod welcome to this thread and you ask me a fair question but I think the question I must ask you is “are you new to trading?” Because if you are new it is not patterns that you want to focus on right now, but technical analysis.

However, if you do have a good grasp of cyclicity (in a trend price moves in cycles: HH and HL / LH and LL), support and resistance, trendlines, MA’s, etc, go here for the basic ingredients of technical analysis if you need to, then you need read this thread from the start as there is so much information right from the get go, and you’ll get a good taste of the basic flavour of the thread and the concepts of the strategy.

The foundation of this thread started by Nightmoves is Hector’s 3SMA strategy, click here to sign up with your email and get the first chapter of his course free. And ideally after that take the whole course! If you want to see Hector in action go here to see 177 of his videos. In these videos you will see the patterns used to enter trades, BPC, 123, breakouts from channels, triangles, flags, H&S, etc, (I will trade any pattern to get into a high probability trade) but the names of these patterns are not as important as reading price action itself.

Ultimately, there are only two ways to enter a trade; a breakout from a S&R level, or a bounce off a S&R level, to keep things very simple.

Anlod keep on posting your questions as there many people who read this thread with a wealth of knowledge who will be glad to help you.

Persistence overcomes resistance!
  • #11,631
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:45pm Sep 5, 2012 5:45pm
This thread is a Bldy education..................................Thnks for takint time to post the above..
  • #11,632
  • Sep 5, 2012 8:05pm Sep 5, 2012 8:05pm
EUUD.. Long possie this picture day chart.. based mainly on amount of bullish candles from.. 12040ish low.....
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  • #11,633
  • Sep 6, 2012 7:45pm Sep 6, 2012 7:45pm
Amazingly minutes after my last post my system shut down and I had to take PC to the shop. Got it back only today and have not been able to see markets till now. seems like some trades hit 700 pips. but retraced to 500-600 now. anyway, moved stops to protect some trades and locked more on profitable one. all trades are in profit. tomorrow is NFP Friday so everything is possible. I am taking PC back to the shop as it doe snot work properly yet.
Quoting zusch
Good trades Holy Cow. I don't know how you are making those great profits! According to Kami its impossible lol!

Everyone should check out this post I made in the Gold thread. Pretty good representation of my trading plan/method.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...48#post5975648
  • #11,634
  • Sep 6, 2012 7:51pm Sep 6, 2012 7:51pm
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I closed eur/cad at BE as it doe snot look good.
  • #11,635
  • Sep 6, 2012 7:59pm Sep 6, 2012 7:59pm
Hi Holy Cow, contratulations on your results. Do you use the 3SMA system? I already know it bu I feel stuck. What do you recommend?
  • #11,636
  • Sep 7, 2012 2:47am Sep 7, 2012 2:47am
Quoting elfam059
Hi Holy Cow, contratulations on your results. Do you use the 3SMA system? I already know it bu I feel stuck. What do you recommend?
Hi elfam059, I actually do use e MA's system but different ma's although it actually is a personal thing. You can use any ma's . it is only a reference point actually.
it all depends upon what you are doing. also, I go through some whipsaw from time to time and to establish these trades I had to pay some 5-6% of my account mostly on this pesky eur/usd. in hindsight I was long all the time jhust was in and out many times. hopefully it will develop into some nice trend. I also have to go through big retracements currently 200+ pips against me. been at maximum 21-23% in unrealized gain but smaller now.

yeah, damn big retracemernts. moved stops to previous levels except BE ones. would not want to get hit cause trends are far form over as it looks but who knows. all pairs are hitting serious s/r levels and big news days hence big retracements. Helluva for contra trend traders.
Just cannot get what so good about bad trade balance news for aud.
Rational markets my ass. all hopes and hot air, but who cares.
with this style you do not have to be glued to the screen as my week off experience has shown. just go with a trend.
Hector's ma's work obviously but seems too perfect and too late for me. Markets are not perfect. what i do not like about Hector is that he sells his courses. Same thing with james16. The dude has a nice following and milking it to the full. It looks like the whole gang is having a good living there from suckers willing to pay monthly fee.

eur/jpy, breaking 100.00. I hope it will. There might be a ran back to 111.00 which would mean 10:1 R:R. Those levels are always serve as sh*t magnet.
BTW, elfam059, if you look carefully at those trend lines which you draw according to Hector's method you will notice that those in most cases are not really trend lines but targets.... and entry on break and 1-2-3 is a bit late. just go through charts and check for yourself what's going on before price makes run towards those "trend lines".
  • #11,637
  • Sep 7, 2012 7:43am Sep 7, 2012 7:43am
Thanks for the prompt answer, Holy Cow. As you say, all needs to be refined. That's why Hector now sells other (and more expensive) courses. Thanks again. Looking forward to more ideas here.
  • #11,638
  • Sep 7, 2012 8:34am Sep 7, 2012 8:34am
Yougotta say the above in the voice Jack Nicholson uses in the movie "The Shining". LOL
WHAT"S UP BOYS !!!!?
It is great to be back !!!! Seems like TTAP is kickin ass on al cylinders!!! Excellent.
Well,I've been away working on a few things and preparing for this trading season.

Where are we ?Where have we been? This is where I'm at......

Looks like the Europeans FINALLY, got their shit together, and Draghi at the ECB is finally going to buy those pesky overpriced bonds (through the EMF) of Italy and Spain,and allow them to finance their gov'ts at sustainable rates. BRAVO EU !! YOU GUYS FINALLY FIGURED IT OUT !! DUUUUH !!
NOW. THE JUICY NEWS.

As you know, (and if not,you better read some backposts) CHINA IS FUCKED!!!!!!!!
Ive been preaching it for awhile (really just repeating bits of data I dug up, but you get the picture) China is in a world of hurt. Why Shomari, why is China so fucked up ??!!! Well little Suzy,come sit on uncle Shomari's lap, and he'll tell you aaaaaaaaaallll about it.
Well Suzy, let'stake a little walk.down memory lane.....

It all started waaaaay back in the mid 1980's. There were Republicans in th White house in America, and they came up with a ingenious plan, that would Let them hire the cheapest workers they could to sell things back to their own peope back home, WITHOUT FEAR OF PENALTIES OR TARRIFS ON THEIR GOODS. They called this plan "FREE TRADE".
Suzy: "But free is a good thing,isn't it uncle Shomari?"
Well yes Suzy,free is always good. But free isn't good, if it's not really free. You see, in order for those companies to hire the cheap workers, they had to fire all the expensive ones back in their home countries. That means a huge part of the population had to look for another job.
Suzy:"But were'nt there other jobs?"
Yes Suzy there were. Except these jobs paid 1/4 of what the old job did. which means the worker has less money.

And this is where the problem lies. You see, China has been making the vast majority of it's money manufaturing goods, in the name of Western corporations,and exporting it back to those very same western nations.
That worked fine for a while, but guess, what ? Those Western consumers are TAPPED OUT !! They can't afford to keep buying all the junk that China has to offer anymore !!!
Decoupling,alas,turned out to be nothing more than a racialist PIPEDREAM!!
Alright Suzy,go play and let uncle Shomari talk to his friends.

Gentlemen,what does this mean for us as traders? 1 THING !!!!!
TAKE COMM DOLLS SHORT SHORT, SHORT !!!!!
Obviously not this second, but, this could be an overall trend going into Christmas and beyond.

Of course, I could be competely wrong. LOL (not likely)

Anyways, that's my 2 cent post for the day, I'll get more involved again next week. (I know,you're all like "Dammit !! Now I gotta read these bloody half a browser window posts again. SHIT!!) LOL. Suck it up boys LOL....
  • #11,639
  • Edited 9:35am Sep 7, 2012 8:45am | Edited 9:35am
Quoting Skynet
4rexx and zusch,
excellent.

DISCLAIMER: ZUCH we are not trying to attack you here. once again. let me repeat: we are not trying to attack you.
and obviously, you did well with them:as shown by your twitter account.

4rexx provided an indicator based analysis of the situation. he went straight to the poignant question: how do we an anticipate the deterioration before it happens? 4rexx used indicators. My approach is fundamental based.

that said, here is my take on the list of pairs and crosses listed above by zusch. with the exception of...
I've beenaway and haven'trun even one scan yet. Who cares ? XAG, XAU like Sky says.
THE ABOVE POST (IF ALL GOES WELL,AND IT WILL) IS YOUR COMM DOLL EXPLAINATION AND STRATEGY GOING INTO JANUARY. YOU DON'T EVEN HAVE TO THINK,JUST EXECUTE.
The heatmaps,don't lie.
  • #11,640
  • Sep 7, 2012 9:02am Sep 7, 2012 9:02am
Quoting Skynet
IS is part 3: WITH THE CHARTS.

xag/sgd
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1346519522
xag/hkd

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1346519482


that is it.

I HOPE I WAS CLEAR enough.....

in a nutshell:

#1. determine fundamental direction
#2. wait for technicals to confirm fundamental bias.
#3. Wait for technical confirmation and enter trade.

THESE KINDS OF TRADES i tend to ride till the very end...i am not getting off until the trend throw me off. only...
Sky, you the man bro !!!

As I said a few months back when you showed those trending exotic pairs charts, I'd never even looked. After seeing the performance of your comm doll beat down..... I"M SOLD !!! Everything is part of the arsenal now. I've taken the blue pill, I see the Matrix now, and I like it !!!
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