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EurAnalysis

  • #52,681
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:14am Sep 6, 2012 2:14am
Quoting PipTrapper
When the markets close on the weekend
Only if you've closed all your positions before
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #52,682
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:23am Sep 6, 2012 2:23am
Quoting Cgb
Good morning guys,

Some good reads from PT and love those videos from Swiss. Always nice to wake up to!

I'm a little disappointed with crude's performance when it failed to close yesterday in the low 94's or below it. The drop and recovery is kind of normal to see, but I did not think it would continue upwards and move above 96. Oh well, c'est la vie. It is still not above the 61.8% FIB line and as such, I'm still bearish on it. I believe we are seeing is tension and storm related. Once the storm season is over, we should start to see...
Morning bud. Welcome to the party. It's been a little quite this morning.
  • #52,683
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:24am Sep 6, 2012 2:24am
Btw.

Stagnation of labout market is unsatisfactory.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #52,684
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:24am Sep 6, 2012 2:24am
Inserted Video
  • #52,685
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:25am Sep 6, 2012 2:25am
looks like expert commentary on the Euro.........
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  • #52,686
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:28am Sep 6, 2012 2:28am
Comment about the three year bond buying program.
How will the market receive the implementation.
This is QE packaged in a different dress.
Sovereigns if they cannot get funded long term will simply fund their needs short term as long as the ECB provides.

If the Northern block aquiesces to this then the Bundesbank is being set up for a fall. That is a major policy change from the highest levels of European governments.
What comes out of Draghi today can fundamentaly change the market perception about the Euro becoming just another rag paper currency.

The moves in Gold suggest the market is already anticipating and sifting thru an announcement.

I think this is premature. Is the ECB really ready to backstop all the Sovereign debt of Europe. Anything is possible and Europe may be in bad enough shape to require such a radical shift in policy. i doubt we are at that point in time currently.

What is more likely is that Draghi is searching for a common ground to signal the bond market that the ECB is there as necessary but the Nations in trouble still have to be willing to subject themselves to outside National boundary review. Nothing as harsh as IMF old standards but some form of European standard of performance.

The leaks yesterday were the test of markets for response by the ECB and will guide decision makers policy initiatives announced today. Nothing terribly adverse occured so the soft bailout of Spain is in the works.

A step closer to the precipice and a step back as well.

As to the USD being the sole focus of markets, yesterdays price action suggests that it is about the Euro at this time. Nothing dramaticaly adverse or positive will come from NFP, just another low luster non performance by the US economicaly. Not enough to trigger QE from the Fed and only more jawboning about ongoing support.
  • #52,687
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:31am Sep 6, 2012 2:31am
Quoting PipTrapper
We recently bought a new espresso machine. Wifey insisted on it

Anyway, regardless of the ridiculously high price we paid, it makes an amazing espresso. However, whilst my taste buds are forever grateful for the wonderful experience in every cup, my central nervous system is experiencing a 9.0 magnitude bodyquake

http://www.onepersonaltraining.com/b...age-771907.jpg
WOW PT.. you summed up the market pretty much using your life as analogy...
  • #52,688
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:32am Sep 6, 2012 2:32am
Bundesbank's Dombret says Bundesbank opposes ECB government bond purchases. It should not become the new normal.
  • #52,689
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:34am Sep 6, 2012 2:34am
PA is now testing the rising trendline from the 15m and 1HR charts...interesting to see if it breaks through here to the downside.
  • #52,690
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:39am Sep 6, 2012 2:39am
I'm going to order one of these for you PT

I already have mine
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I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #52,691
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:39am Sep 6, 2012 2:39am
Quoting ProfitsOnly
WOW PT.. you summed up the market pretty much using your life as analogy...
Finally somebody "Got it"
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #52,692
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:40am Sep 6, 2012 2:40am
Morning auction market profile noon update. Price action is trading within a tight range at/or near daily POC and within the middle of the daily bell curve distribution. With recent price movement to the downside, my analysis is showing that PA is not being supported by VSA and thus is showing me a bullish divergence based on that fact. This discrepancy between VSA and auction market leads me to believe that price may have established a floor/bottom so far today and may be moving north. If you have open positions, I would highly recommend keeping a tight SL.

Of course in these recent trading environment, PA will be driven by news release.

  • #52,693
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:40am Sep 6, 2012 2:40am
And so their side show begins...
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Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
  • #52,694
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:48am Sep 6, 2012 2:48am
According to Madrid sources, Spain may be prepared to make an official request for bailout in early October if no new conditions are attached to the deal.
  • #52,695
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:52am Sep 6, 2012 2:52am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Morning auction market profile noon update. Price action is trading within a tight range at/or near daily POC and within the middle of the daily bell curve distribution. With recent price movement to the downside, my analysis is showing that PA is not being supported by VSA and thus is showing me a bullish divergence based on that fact. This discrepancy between VSA and auction market leads me to believe that price may have established a floor/bottom so far today and may be moving north. If you have open positions, I would highly recommend keeping...
Thanks for the update Swiss. But don't you mean by news leaks?
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #52,696
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:54am Sep 6, 2012 2:54am
Quoting Cgb
Thanks for the update Swiss. But don't you mean by news leaks?
True.
  • #52,697
  • Sep 6, 2012 3:01am Sep 6, 2012 3:01am
German factory orders m/m rise +0.5% vs +0.3% expected and -1.7% previous
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #52,698
  • Sep 6, 2012 3:05am Sep 6, 2012 3:05am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
True.
I'm thinking about yesterday's leak and looking at the price action. I was up early and happy to see E/U touch 1.2500. Posted a comment about if it was going to hold or not. I expected a bounce from there, but nothing more than a 20-30 pip retrace. As it moved above 1.2540 only one thing came to mind; "WTF!"

Even ForexLive (think it was Peter) posted something about he could not find anything to explain the sudden move up.

After digging this morning, I found out why... Those who remember the movie will understand

http://www.hark.com/clips/cvymftwqgp...lue-star#embed
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #52,699
  • Sep 6, 2012 3:09am Sep 6, 2012 3:09am
Up next

11:00 GMT BOE official bank rate & Asset Purchase Facility followed by MPC Rate Statement. (Expecting no change to rate)

11:45 GMT ECB Minimum Bid Rate (expecting rate cut to 0.5%)

12:15 GMT ADP Non-Farm Employment (expected at 142K)

12:30 GMT ECB Press Conference starring Super Mario

12:30 GMT US Jobless Claims report (expecting 369K)

14:00 GMT US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Expecting 52.5)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #52,700
  • Sep 6, 2012 3:12am Sep 6, 2012 3:12am
Quoting PipTrapper
Up next

11:00 GMT BOE official bank rate & Asset Purchase Facility followed by MPC Rate Statement. (Expecting no change to rate)

11:45 GMT ECB Minimum Bid Rate (expecting rate cut to 0.5%)

12:15 GMT ADP Non-Farm Employment (expected at 142K)

12:30 GMT ECB Press Conference starring Super Mario

12:30 GMT US Jobless Claims report (expecting 369K)

14:00 GMT US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Expecting 52.5)
Hit me with your best shot!
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I observe your reality but live my own.
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