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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #52,661
  • Sep 6, 2012 3:19am Sep 6, 2012 3:19am
Quoting nathan25x
well, the AUDUSD breakout has stalled at resistance, as has the Euro....we need some more hopium to get this higher...

its coming in the wires !!!!
“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.”
  • #52,662
  • Sep 6, 2012 3:20am Sep 6, 2012 3:20am
Quoting nathan25x
well, the AUDUSD breakout has stalled at resistance, as has the Euro....we need some more hopium to get this higher...
I see AUD/USD at 1.0350/80 before a bearish continuation.
Based on retest of 55 day ema/sma (unfinished business)
So we may be in for a bit of a rally today.

http://www.salespod.net/media/10663/hopium.png
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #52,663
  • Sep 6, 2012 3:20am Sep 6, 2012 3:20am
well, i made +23 pips going long from 1.2603...but i closed it out as i dont have confidence the hopium high can last now....oh well.......
  • #52,664
  • Sep 6, 2012 3:26am Sep 6, 2012 3:26am
Quoting PipTrapper
I see AUD/USD at 1.0350/80 before a bearish continuation.
Based on retest of 55 day ema/sma (unfinished business)
So we may be in for a bit of a rally today.
looks that way....bouncing of a strong double bottome and the 1 HR RSI and MacD both rather bullish.....
  • #52,665
  • Sep 6, 2012 3:43am Sep 6, 2012 3:43am
We are definitely ranging and trading within a 20-30 pip range as it is confirmed by above average volume in both directions. I would be careful.
  • #52,666
  • Sep 6, 2012 3:45am Sep 6, 2012 3:45am
Spanish auction results being released any minute now.
  • #52,667
  • Sep 6, 2012 3:49am Sep 6, 2012 3:49am
Spanish short term Auction results good cover results. 2 Year yield at 2.80% down from 4,77% previous. All in all good results as expected.

Spanish 4-Year Bonos Auction4.603%vs 5.971% Cover 1.86
Spanish 3-Year Bonos Auction3.676%vs 5.086% Cover 1.76
Spanish 2-Year Bonos Auction2.798%vs 4.774% Cover 2.01
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #52,668
  • Sep 6, 2012 3:50am Sep 6, 2012 3:50am
I think this is nice post, which should be not overlooked.

Q: Is ratecut bearish in short term?

A:
Quoting PipTrapper
Be careful when applying that kind of logic. You may be right but I don't think it is wise in this environment to make such assumptions.

In my view (and I'm not saying I am right), if the ECB cuts the rate to 0.5%, then that would give the market a signal that the ECB is doing something to boost the EZ economy... in which case it would be a bullish signal in the short term. Alternatively, a failure to cut rates, would be disappointing to the market.

Anyway, regardless of the above, I think the focus will be more on the US Dollar...
Imo ratecut alone would send us somwhere @ 1,12 @ end of the year. It is very important to say, that if such an event comes, it wont come alone, but very possibly with combo bond buying/lowering of collateral requirements, creating short term bullish move.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #52,669
  • Sep 6, 2012 3:59am Sep 6, 2012 3:59am
Quoting PipTrapper
Spanish short term Auction results good cover results. 2 Year yield at 2.80% down from 4,77% previous. All in all good results as expected.
Who could have expected that?

Btw, check H1 closing above 2616 and bull afterwards.

edit: ok, 2615, point for you bears . Very small point.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #52,670
  • Sep 6, 2012 4:00am Sep 6, 2012 4:00am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Who could have expected that?

Btw, check H1 closing above 2616 and bull afterwards.
No way it closes above. That may come later ... not now
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #52,671
  • Sep 6, 2012 4:03am Sep 6, 2012 4:03am
Have you seen the RSI divergences in 15m and 30m charts?
  • #52,672
  • Edited 4:43am Sep 6, 2012 4:03am | Edited 4:43am
Eurozone y/y GDP revised down to -0.5% vs prior -0.4%
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #52,673
  • Sep 6, 2012 4:04am Sep 6, 2012 4:04am
Greek Unemployment SA (Jun) M/M 24.4% vs. Exp. 23.5% (Prev. 23.1%)
  • #52,674
  • Sep 6, 2012 4:05am Sep 6, 2012 4:05am
Hmm. Stock futures are up. European equity markets are up, commodity is up! But DXY is nearly flat! as well as E/u and G/U. Definitely an environment to be careful.
  • #52,675
  • Sep 6, 2012 4:07am Sep 6, 2012 4:07am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Hmm. Stock futures are up. European equity markets are up, commodity is up! But DXY is nearly flat! as well as E/u and G/U. Definitely an environment to be careful.
when should we not be careful?
  • #52,676
  • Sep 6, 2012 4:09am Sep 6, 2012 4:09am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Hmm. Stock futures are up. European equity markets are up, commodity is up! But DXY is nearly flat! as well as E/u and G/U. Definitely an environment to be careful.
Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #52,677
  • Sep 6, 2012 4:09am Sep 6, 2012 4:09am
Quoting nathan25x
when should we not be careful?
When the markets close on the weekend
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #52,678
  • Sep 6, 2012 4:09am Sep 6, 2012 4:09am
According to Die Welt German newspaper article released today and hitting newswires:


Motion for bias against judges in the ESM procedure

An applicant raises serious allegations against the reporter in ESM proceedings before the Constitutional Court, Peter M.. Reason is his previous work for more Democracy.


http://translate.google.com/translat...Verfahren.html
  • #52,679
  • Sep 6, 2012 4:11am Sep 6, 2012 4:11am
OECD cuts US growth forecast to 2.3% from 2.4% in 2012


Cuts Germany’s growth forecast to 0.8% from 1.2%
Cuts Italy’s -2.4% from -1.7%
Cuts UK to -0.7% from +0.5%
Cuts France’s to +0.1% from +0.6%
Raises Japan’s to +2.2% from +2.0%
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #52,680
  • Sep 6, 2012 4:11am Sep 6, 2012 4:11am
Good morning guys,

Some good reads from PT and love those videos from Swiss. Always nice to wake up to!

I'm a little disappointed with crude's performance when it failed to close yesterday in the low 94's or below it. The drop and recovery is kind of normal to see, but I did not think it would continue upwards and move above 96. Oh well, c'est la vie. It is still not above the 61.8% FIB line and as such, I'm still bearish on it. I believe we are seeing is tension and storm related. Once the storm season is over, we should start to see it move down.

On the other hand, I'm quite happy to see gold above 1700 as it's nearing my initial target of 1719 that I talked about early August. It's obvious by the sharp moves (and when they occured) that this is a fear trade. Investors are running for safety and the metals sector is where to be.

Today is going to be the wild, wild west in the currency markets and hope you all have your pit helmets and jock straps on. I don't really want to see a close above 1.2700, this will be giving too much ammo for the bulls.

Best of luck to all!
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