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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #52,381
  • Sep 5, 2012 4:41am Sep 5, 2012 4:41am
Quoting Cgb
Thanks Swiss. So I wasn't off too much I think
You were pretty spot on. Now, you just need to trust how to trade using profile and ween off all other lagging indicators completely.
  • #52,382
  • Sep 5, 2012 4:42am Sep 5, 2012 4:42am
Quoting Ken A
I see it as a hedge in fear of inflation due to QE and expecting volatility until the dust settle.

Just partially close on gold short ($5 profit/ounce) anticipating it might shoot up again. Will keep shorting at higher price. No love for Silver short yet.
I agree that it's a hedge against fear (and not only of QE, but of world troubles in general). But the fact remains that if gold shoots up, it will add downward pressure on the US Dollar.

A daily close below 81.000 on the US dollar would propel gold into the $1700 I think.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #52,383
  • Sep 5, 2012 4:43am Sep 5, 2012 4:43am
Dear Teachers @ EurAnalysis,

A Big Thank you on this very special day for your interest and active contribution as facilitators.

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  • #52,384
  • Sep 5, 2012 4:45am Sep 5, 2012 4:45am
Quoting sisse
Good post...

I wouldn't dismiss the top side that easy. You just posted the reason why TA wise and with such a big FA in play in the next few days ...if they align we are going to the moon not only in equities, gold, oil but also in euro short term.

My 2 cents is keep an eye and give more leverage to those macro levels more than the daily and below ones until the knee jerk reaction settle down...

Have you ever seen live a Monthly/Weekly end of short term trend? .... the FA factors in play have more than enough power...
I agree 100% with your analysis sisse. Great job.
  • #52,385
  • Sep 5, 2012 4:53am Sep 5, 2012 4:53am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Good morning cgb. Today is looking like a perfect bell curve forming with POC right in the middle. We are stalling around a cluster of former POC area. The last of the cluster around the 1.2480 handle and subsequent low of that day's POC around 1.2465. With the perfect bell curve forming, it would not surprise me if we traded between value area low to POC and value area high to POC or possibly make a roundtrip back up to high value area and yesterday's naked POC at 1.2565 area.

Other notable price levels to watch on the upside is 1.2580...
Well we just went from the tip of the low value area past daily POC, look for potential higher levels I mentioned in post above.
  • #52,386
  • Sep 5, 2012 4:58am Sep 5, 2012 4:58am
Forgot to post this for you guys:

Market talk that the PBOC is to cut interest rates as early as tomorrow - Unconfirmed
  • #52,387
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:00am Sep 5, 2012 5:00am
Quoting rekon67
Dear Teachers @ EurAnalysis,

A Big Thank you on this very special day for your interest and active contribution as facilitators.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #52,388
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:03am Sep 5, 2012 5:03am
From CNBC via email

German government bonds fell on Wednesday after the government sold just 3.61 billion euros in 10-year debt at an auction, less than the 5 billion euros that it had planned, signaling weak demand from investors for debt issued by one of Europe's strongest economies. The sale drew bids worth just 1.1 times the amount allotted to investors, less than the 1.8 times achieved at a similar sale in August. Some analysts pointed to caution ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday at which traders hope the central bank will announce a new bond buying program.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #52,389
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:04am Sep 5, 2012 5:04am
Am curious about something. The argument for the Euro and a big risk on day is that Draghi has his big bazzoka armed and ready to fire. But that entails that the Northern block is willing and able to accept the terms of surrender for the three year buying package.

I am in the camp that this is not a done deal as Spain would not be held to account for austerity implementation. Is there evidence that other then the usual suspects such as Von Rumpuy and Barrosso, Hollande, Juncker assuming I have them right, that Merkel is on board with an upcoming election and the German electorate to explain to?

I think that the ECB will have a problem delivering on market expectations, something of akin to the last time Mario backpedaled. Would like to hear from those who think that the ECB has been given the green light.

Thanks
  • #52,390
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:06am Sep 5, 2012 5:06am
Quoting foto
...I think that the ECB will have a problem delivering on market expectations, something of akin to the last time Mario backpedaled. Would like to hear from those who think that the ECB has been given the green light.

Thanks
In that case, you don't want to hear from me
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #52,391
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:07am Sep 5, 2012 5:07am
Quoting sisse
..Have you ever seen live a Monthly/Weekly end of short term trend? .... the FA factors in play have more than enough power to do it and TA wise (reversal in monthly at Q support in play) it will be healthy for the mid/long term downtrend
Hi mate,

Well, I saw it twice. Oct 2011 sick correction up to 1,42x and February 2012 1,34x. I still think we are in five way down here. But could you expand what are you looking at? Overshoot of monthly high and crash? I was looking at this possibility through history and it appeares to be happening pretty often.

Quoting sisse
In simple words, this time is a bit different than the last pullback since last year as there is as much "juice" in the euro to the top side (with QE's and Bonds intervention) than to the short side (with panic and CB's disappoints) for the rest of the year...

GL in whatever side you take ....

sisse
You are right saying we could shoot to the moon if they do combo. I am very very carefull and see lots of what they can do tomorrow.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #52,392
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:08am Sep 5, 2012 5:08am
Hello All, How about today?
have got some pips?

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/...ticleLarge.jpg
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  • #52,393
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:10am Sep 5, 2012 5:10am
Taking some time off guys, good luck this month. Too frustrated by my trades being missed and need a break before I do something silly.

Ciao .


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"Don't Panic..."
  • #52,394
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:12am Sep 5, 2012 5:12am
Quoting Halifax
Taking some time off guys, good luck this month. Too frustrated by my trades being missed and need a break before I do something silly.

Ciao .


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Take care Halifax. Come back fresh.
  • #52,395
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:19am Sep 5, 2012 5:19am
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  • #52,396
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:20am Sep 5, 2012 5:20am
Quoting foto
.Would like to hear from those who think that the ECB has been given the green light.

Thanks
Not a green light actually, but more of a turn off all lights.

Financial engineering is young science, which was born in late 20th century. There are few who understand how complex can it be. Derivatives of derivatives and so on. I am pretty sure Mr. Draghi got pretty good education in Goldman Sachs and he is a pro in this science. All I am saying is, there always is some way, ECB has some very powerfull tools and big enough balance sheet to move the markets for months.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #52,397
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:21am Sep 5, 2012 5:21am
Italy PM Monti says ECB mandate has room to allow interventions to stabilize bond spreads
  • #52,398
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:24am Sep 5, 2012 5:24am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Italy PM Monti says ECB mandate has room to allow interventions to stabilize bond spreads
Monti omitted the part where he says "without requiring Italy to apply for aid"
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #52,399
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:25am Sep 5, 2012 5:25am
Quoting Halifax
Taking some time off guys, good luck this month. Too frustrated by my trades being missed and need a break before I do something silly.

Ciao .


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Come back nice and refreshed Halifax. Take care.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #52,400
  • Sep 5, 2012 5:26am Sep 5, 2012 5:26am
Quebec separatist leader rushed from stage amid security scare.....

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8K51OL20120905


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