- #52,361
- Sep 5, 2012 3:29am Sep 5, 2012 3:29am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
- #52,362
- Sep 5, 2012 3:31am Sep 5, 2012 3:31am
- Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Princess | 2,149 Posts
Whoa! This quote is too old and the EUR short too!!
- #52,363
- Sep 5, 2012 3:39am Sep 5, 2012 3:39am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
yes it is...
- #52,365
- Sep 5, 2012 3:44am Sep 5, 2012 3:44am
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Trader | 2,104 Posts
Good morning (Gwad this is early for me)
Another nice drop that stalled at 1.25003 and is today's question... Do we move below 1.2500? 1.2514 was the 38% FIB line and we did even stall moving down, but round number support is going to be a little harder.
Still learning those POC things and playing with those virgins, err... I mean learning about them
Looks like we're below all of last week's POCs and next one is around today's Daily S2 level at 1.2459. I'm sure Swiss will correct me here if I'm wrong.
Crude and Gold is losing steam and as PT pointed out, it looks like it's going to be a risk off day. If so, I need to figure out where I should be taking a short from. I'm thinking a retrace to the 38% FIB would be a good place.
Let's hope is a good day for everybody!
Another nice drop that stalled at 1.25003 and is today's question... Do we move below 1.2500? 1.2514 was the 38% FIB line and we did even stall moving down, but round number support is going to be a little harder.
Still learning those POC things and playing with those virgins, err... I mean learning about them
Looks like we're below all of last week's POCs and next one is around today's Daily S2 level at 1.2459. I'm sure Swiss will correct me here if I'm wrong.Crude and Gold is losing steam and as PT pointed out, it looks like it's going to be a risk off day. If so, I need to figure out where I should be taking a short from. I'm thinking a retrace to the 38% FIB would be a good place.
Let's hope is a good day for everybody!
I observe your reality but live my own.
- #52,366
- Sep 5, 2012 3:51am Sep 5, 2012 3:51am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
U/CAD is getting some love
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #52,367
- Sep 5, 2012 3:53am Sep 5, 2012 3:53am
- | Commercial User | Joined May 2012 | 3,285 Posts
Good morning (Gwad this is early for me)
Another nice drop that stalled at 1.25003 and is today's question... Do we move below 1.2500? 1.2514 was the 38% FIB line and we did even stall moving down, but round number support is going to be a little harder.
Still learning those POC things and playing with those virgins, err... I mean learning about them
Crude and Gold is losing...
I know you trade Oil on a regular basis. What are you seeing at this time? Would love to hear your input / analysis if you decide to make a move!
- #52,368
- Sep 5, 2012 3:55am Sep 5, 2012 3:55am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Good morning (Gwad this is early for me)
Another nice drop that stalled at 1.25003 and is today's question... Do we move below 1.2500? 1.2514 was the 38% FIB line and we did even stall moving down, but round number support is going to be a little harder.
Still learning those POC things and playing with those virgins, err... I mean learning about them
Crude and Gold is losing...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #52,369
- Sep 5, 2012 4:03am Sep 5, 2012 4:03am
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Trader | 2,104 Posts
Good morning Cgb!
I know you trade Oil on a regular basis. What are you seeing at this time? Would love to hear your input / analysis if you decide to make a move!
I've not talked much about it lately because I still have the same views as I did a week or two ago. I talked about an Inverse Head and Shoulder when it was $84 with a target of $96. It went a bit further and had a high of $98.27 but it did not close above the 61.8% FIB level and has slowly been pulling back from it since. The 200SMA is being a magnet right now with the price action and given we are still in the huricane season, I don't expect to see it move too far away from there.
However, we're broken the uptrend attack line (blue line on chart) and we're now below $95 (currently at $94.86). My initial target after hitting the high was a pull back to the 55EMA on the daily chart and the support level of $92.40. If that fails. it's back to the $89 level I think.
Hope this helps.
I observe your reality but live my own.
- #52,370
- Sep 5, 2012 4:10am Sep 5, 2012 4:10am
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Trader | 2,104 Posts
I feel it in my bones buddy. The reversal is near, but we have to get through the next two weeks of volatility before the big drop. This is just the start of the topping process. COT reports will guide us.
I know you are not a gold bug, but what are your thoughts on it? Up or down? And why you think that. I said gold would move up a few weeks ago and it has, but I didn't think it would move upwards so quickly. I still have a target of $1719 on it.
The reason I ask is because of the correlation to the US$.
Thanks
I observe your reality but live my own.
- #52,371
- Edited 4:33am Sep 5, 2012 4:15am | Edited 4:33am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
Good mornig.
Nice morning update PT! This was really good one.
I hope scalpers here got some nice pips from Asia drop. Still the same here, I must admit, I may have missed my entry and now it is possible, I will have to enter at break. I have been really looking forward for that.... So, that would be break on H4 - 2509. Very important weekly close which started this correction and, more importantly, made possible that bullish monthly close, which is now still above us. That monthly number is at ,257 and I expect retest.
Current move down is a)profit taking b)bears won yesterdays wild wild west shootout.
ad b) Draghi acted like a childish fool + Moodys outlook + ESM against constitution. These events clearly beaten QE fans, who were only repeating the same.
So, today, I am watching 2509 + ,257 above, below is only my favourite monthly support zone (2295-2346) and below oblivion. I see 257 as very possible top today, but we may also overshoot to ,259. H4 below 2509 is trigger to sell as well as retest of ,257.
Needed to say, that there is nothing here, what could lean QE fans from their bias. More possibly, they now count in QE even more than yesterday, because, yet again, Europe starts to look like at the edge of bankrupcy in media. This is calling for action even more. If childish Draghi gets beaten by German court, and now it seems more possible, action should be taken, or otherwise, we are very fast going to be back at July lows. So, today we can expect another media shootout as market expectations is the right tone to play before Anythingcanhappenthursday.
GL today,
T
Nice morning update PT! This was really good one.
I hope scalpers here got some nice pips from Asia drop. Still the same here, I must admit, I may have missed my entry and now it is possible, I will have to enter at break
. I have been really looking forward for that.... So, that would be break on H4 - 2509. Very important weekly close which started this correction and, more importantly, made possible that bullish monthly close, which is now still above us. That monthly number is at ,257 and I expect retest.Current move down is a)profit taking b)bears won yesterdays wild wild west shootout.
ad b) Draghi acted like a childish fool + Moodys outlook + ESM against constitution. These events clearly beaten QE fans, who were only repeating the same.
So, today, I am watching 2509 + ,257 above, below is only my favourite monthly support zone (2295-2346) and below oblivion. I see 257 as very possible top today, but we may also overshoot to ,259. H4 below 2509 is trigger to sell as well as retest of ,257.
Needed to say, that there is nothing here, what could lean QE fans from their bias. More possibly, they now count in QE even more than yesterday, because, yet again, Europe starts to look like at the edge of bankrupcy in media. This is calling for action even more. If childish Draghi gets beaten by German court, and now it seems more possible, action should be taken, or otherwise, we are very fast going to be back at July lows. So, today we can expect another media shootout as market expectations is the right tone to play before Anythingcanhappenthursday.
GL today,
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #52,373
- Sep 5, 2012 4:20am Sep 5, 2012 4:20am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #52,374
- Sep 5, 2012 4:21am Sep 5, 2012 4:21am
- Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Don't put all ur eggs in one basket | 3,453 Posts
Good morning (Gwad this is early for me)
Another nice drop that stalled at 1.25003 and is today's question... Do we move below 1.2500? 1.2514 was the 38% FIB line and we did even stall moving down, but round number support is going to be a little harder.
Still learning those POC things and playing with those virgins, err... I mean learning about them
Crude and Gold is losing steam...
Other notable price levels to watch on the upside is 1.2580 and 1.2610 where POC flipped yesterday afternoon showing high volume supply level.
On the downside we also have a former monthly POC at 1.2465 and should cap any move down. Of course anything could happen with news today
Happy trading.
- #52,375
- Sep 5, 2012 4:22am Sep 5, 2012 4:22am
- Joined Jun 2012 | Status: ケンジ | 21,416 Posts
Gwad I hope so. Kept some dry powder and that 'special' moment
I know you are not a gold bug, but what are your thoughts on it? Up or down? And why you think that. I said gold would move up a few weeks ago and it has, but I didn't think it would move upwards so quickly. I still have a target of $1719 on it.
The reason I ask is because of the correlation to the US$.
Thanks
Just partially close on gold short ($5 profit/ounce) anticipating it might shoot up again. Will keep shorting at higher price. No love for Silver short yet.
- #52,378
- Sep 5, 2012 4:37am Sep 5, 2012 4:37am
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Trader | 2,104 Posts
Good morning cgb. Today is looking like a perfect bell curve forming with POC right in the middle. We are stalling around a cluster of former POC area. The last of the cluster around the 1.2480 handle and subsequent low of that day's POC around 1.2465. With the perfect bell curve forming, it would not surprise me if we traded between value area low to POC and value area high to POC or possibly make a roundtrip back up to high value area and yesterday's naked POC at 1.2565 area.
Other notable price levels to watch on the upside is 1.2580 and 1.2610...
I observe your reality but live my own.
- #52,379
- Sep 5, 2012 4:38am Sep 5, 2012 4:38am
- Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Technical Fundamentalist | 11,563 Posts
Good mornig.
...I may have missed my entry and now it is possible, I will have to enter at break
T
I wouldn't dismiss the top side that easy. You just posted the reason why TA wise and with such a big FA in play in the next few days ...if they align we are going to the moon not only in equities, gold, oil but also in euro short term.
My 2 cents is keep an eye and give more leverage to those macro levels more than the daily and below ones until the knee jerk reaction settle down...
Have you ever seen live a Monthly/Weekly end of short term trend? .... the FA factors in play have more than enough power to do it and TA wise (reversal in monthly at Q support in play) it will be healthy for the mid/long term downtrend ....
In simple words, this time is a bit different than the last pullback since last year as there is as much "juice" in the euro to the top side (with QE's and Bonds intervention) than to the short side (with panic and CB's disappoints) for the rest of the year...
GL in whatever side you take ....
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
- #52,380
- Edited 5:10am Sep 5, 2012 4:41am | Edited 5:10am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates